Tom Lee’s Bold Bitcoin Price Prediction Faces Two Headwinds — One Path Still Exists
Tom Lee not too long ago stated the Bitcoin worth might nonetheless push above $100,000 earlier than 2025 ends. It is a daring name, particularly with Bitcoin buying and selling sideways and momentum wanting drained. At first look, the market doesn’t look prepared. Big cash flows are weakening, long-term holders are promoting, and worth motion stays compressed.
But Bitcoin has one remaining path that might nonetheless make Lee’s prediction attainable. It doesn’t depend on contemporary purchases. It depends on positioning.
Big Money And Conviction Holders Are Still Headwinds
The first downside with Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price prediction, highlighted on CNBC, stems from capital flows.
The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether or not massive capital is coming into or leaving the market, stays weak. Between December 17 and December 23, the Bitcoin worth moved barely larger, however the CMF trended decrease. That is a bearish signal. It exhibits that bigger gamers are lowering publicity at the same time as worth holds up.
CMF readings additionally collapsed sharply after December 21, falling greater than 200% earlier than rebounding round 68%. The rebound seems to be encouraging, however CMF remains to be beneath zero. That means capital inflows stay weak, not sturdy.
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The second headwind comes from long-term holders. These are wallets that traditionally promote late, not early.
Over the previous month, long-term holder web place change has stayed deeply unfavourable. On November 23, long-term holders have been promoting roughly 97,800 BTC per day. By December 23, that determine had climbed to just about 279,000 BTC offered in a single day. That’s a 185% surge.
That is a large enhance in distribution from conviction holders. When each large capital circulate and long-term holders lean negatively, sustained upside turns into tough.
The Only Way Bitcoin Can Still Reach $100,000
Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin is just not out of choices. But the trail depends on an unlikely drive.
The market is closely skewed towards shorts.
Looking on the 30-day liquidation map, cumulative brief liquidation leverage stands close to $3.41 billion. Long liquidation leverage sits nearer to $2.14 billion. That imbalance means greater than 60% of leverage is positioned in opposition to the worth going up.
This issues as a result of when shopping for stress is weak, worth can nonetheless rise by means of forced liquidations, like earlier. In easy phrases, Bitcoin doesn’t want new patrons. It wants shorts to be flawed.
A pointy transfer larger would drive brief positions to shut, which creates automated shopping for. That shopping for can then cascade into additional liquidations, even when underlying demand stays delicate.
This is the one life like mechanism left for a quick upside transfer. Also, the most important chunk of the liquidation cluster, on the brief facet, lies between $88,390 and $96,070. Time to see if the BTC worth ranges can transfer in that zone.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide If Tom Lee Is Right
For a brief squeeze to start, Bitcoin should clear particular ranges.
The first zone sits round $91,220. A sustained transfer above this space would start liquidating lower-leverage brief positions. That alone would enhance short-term momentum.
The actual set off lies close to $97,820. This stage has capped worth a number of occasions since mid-November and aligns with the densest brief liquidation cluster. A break above it could put many of the $3.41 billion in brief leverage in danger.
If that cascade begins, Bitcoin could move quickly towards the psychological $100,380 stage while not having sturdy capital inflows or long-term holder help. But the invalidation is evident.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $91,220 and continues to float sideways, CMF weak point and long-term holder promoting stay dominant. In that case, the brief squeeze by no means begins, and Tom Lee’s Bitcoin worth prediction goal stays out of attain. For now, Bitcoin is caught between conviction promoting and leveraged positioning.
The prediction lives or dies on one factor solely: whether or not shorts are compelled to cowl.
The publish Tom Lee’s Bold Bitcoin Price Prediction Faces Two Headwinds — One Path Still Exists appeared first on BeInCrypto.
