U.S. Labor Market Declined in September, Fueling Rate Cut Odds – Bullish for Bitcoin’s Q4 Run?
Bitcoin prolonged its rally into October, breaking above $117,000 for the primary time since mid-September as recent U.S. labor market knowledge boosted expectations of Federal Reserve price cuts.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped greater than 4% on the day, decisively shattering the $115,000 resistance zone.
The transfer got here after the Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a U.S.-based payroll and HR administration firm, reported a surprise loss of 32,000 private payrolls in September, versus expectations for a achieve of 45,000.
It marked the third decline in the previous 4 months, indicating clear indicators of financial weak spot.
Labor Market Weakness Reignites Rate Cut Odds at 99%
Job openings rose by simply 19,000 in August to 7.208 million, nonetheless close to their lowest since January 2021. The three-month common fell to 7.26 million, a 4.5-year low and beneath pre-pandemic ranges.
Meanwhile, the job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio dropped to 0.98, its weakest studying since April 2021.
That means there are actually 157,000 extra unemployed Americans than job vacancies, the widest hole since March 2021.
The disappointing knowledge have sharply shifted financial coverage expectations.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, merchants now see a 99% probability of a 25 bps Fed price minimize on the subsequent FOMC assembly.
BREAKING:
THE ODDS OF AN OCTOBER RATE CUT IS NOW AT 100%.
BULLISH FOR CRYPTO
pic.twitter.com/inlk0YfRXD
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) October 1, 2025
A dovish Fed is broadly considered as a tailwind for Bitcoin, weakening the greenback and driving demand for danger belongings.
This aligns with Bitcoin’s historic seasonality.
October, November, and December have persistently delivered sturdy returns, with “Uptober” usually kicking off a year-end rally.
Historical Patterns Align: Will Q4 Deliver Bitcoin’s Next Mega Rally?
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals Bitcoin getting into Q4 with circumstances supportive of a rally. By reclaiming the Trader’s Realized Price at $116K, Bitcoin has re-entered the bull part of its cycle indicator.
Spot Bitcoin demand has grown steadily since July, now operating at a 62,000 BTC month-to-month progress price. Such sustained demand was additionally current throughout Q4 rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024.
Whale holdings reinforce the bullish image.
Large Bitcoin addresses are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC, in comparison with 255,000 in Q4 2024, 238,000 at first of Q4 2020, and a contraction of 197,000 in 2021.
CryptoQuant estimates that these catalysts may broaden Bitcoin’s potential Q4 goal vary towards $160,000–$200,000.
From a high-timeframe perspective, Bitcoin’s construction aligns with Wyckoff accumulation theory and broader macro liquidity cycles.
The monetary policy shift in January 2024 marked the start of an accumulation vary, whereas the April 6 “spring” low offered the inspiration for the present uptrend.
Within this construction, ranges at $106,400 and $125,600 are recognized as automated response and assist zones, whereas upside projections between $150,000 and $185,000 are thought of main targets in the primary quarter of 2026.
This suggests Bitcoin stays early in a bigger bullish expansion phase, with pullbacks more likely to function wholesome corrections reasonably than the beginning of a deeper reversal.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Support at $108K, Resistance at $120K, Eyes on $135K+
On the technical entrance, Bitcoin is consolidating close to $117,000 with clearly outlined thresholds for each bullish continuation and potential reversal.
The key structural assist sits close to $108,131. Should worth falls beneath this stage, it will flip the outlook bearish.
However, so long as Bitcoin holds above the $113,000 to $118,000 vary, the broader development stays favorable for the bulls.
On the upside, speedy resistance lies at $120,000, a psychological barrier that, if damaged, may open the trail towards new all-time highs above $130,000.
Should momentum persist, targets in the $122,000 to $125,000 vary come into focus, with extension projections pointing as high as $145,000 to $150,000.
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