UFC Fight Night Ankalaev vs. Guskov Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi lands at Etihad Arena on July 25 with a light-weight heavyweight bout for the primary occasion, with former champion Magomed Ankalaev returning to the Octagon to tackle late-notice substitute Bogdan Guskov.
The principal card will get underway at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with early prelims kicking off the motion at 9 a.m. ET.
Kalshi and Polymarket merchants are lining up virtually identically throughout six main-card bouts, with just one true 50-50 coin flip on your entire slate.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown via the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the 2 platforms redefining how followers have interaction with MMA outcomes.
UFC Fight Night card preview: Kalshi vs. Polymarket markets
Main Event — Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov
Magomed Ankalaev is a heavy favourite within the mild heavyweight headliner, with Kalshi pricing him at 82¢ and Polymarket at 81¢, reflecting his measurement, management, and championship-level grappling benefit over a late-notice substitute in Guskov, who stepped in for Khalil Rountree Jr. Guskov sits at 19-20¢ throughout each books, preserving him alive as a reside underdog purely on the power of his knockout energy, however the market clearly believes Ankalaev’s quantity and management might be an excessive amount of throughout 5 rounds.
Co-Main — Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov
The flyweight co-main is the tightest market on your entire card, with Ramazan Temirov just a bit bit forward at 52-53¢ on each side over Steve Erceg at 48-49¢. The close-to-even worth signifies merchants are genuinely divided on whether or not Temirov’s fight-ending energy or Erceg’s expertise, motion, and quantity will win out over three rounds.
With barely a cent separating Polymarket and Kalshi, this reads because the one true toss-up on the primary card and a combat the place live-line motion throughout the walkout might let you know greater than the pre-fight quantity.
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman
Islam Dulatov is a decisive favourite right here, priced at 87-88¢ on each platforms in opposition to Wellington Turman, who trails at simply 13¢ throughout the board. That form of lopsided pricing sometimes factors to a transparent stylistic mismatch, and Dulatov’s rising unbeaten file has merchants treating this as near a formality somewhat than a real decide’em.
Turman’s veteran expertise and sturdiness give him a puncher’s probability, however the market is actually pricing this as a mismatch on paper.
Damian Rzepecki vs. Magomed Zaynukov
Magomed Zaynukov is the clear favourite on this light-weight bout, sitting at 73-74¢ on each platforms, whereas Damian Rzepecki trails at 27-28¢. The hole suggests merchants like Zaynukov’s bodily instruments and ending instincts in opposition to a Rzepecki who might want to depend on quantity, sturdiness, and grappling to tug the combat into deep water.
With each platforms in near-total settlement, there’s little room for a contrarian angle right here past a live-underdog play on Rzepecki if he can change the tempo early.
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune
Rizvan Kuniev is the favourite at 75¢ on each websites on this heavyweight conflict vs Tyrell Fortune at 26-27¢. Heavyweight fights are identified for his or her volatility attributable to one-punch knockout energy, however the 75¢ line at each books means that merchants like Kuniev’s general talent and ending capability however give Fortune the good thing about the doubt for his energy.
Considering the massive discrepancy, Fortune’s worth is reside worth for anybody buying and selling a single clear shot that may change the combat.
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
Abubakar Vagaev opens the primary card as a strong favourite, priced at 68-71¢ throughout the 2 platforms in opposition to Saygid Izagakhmaev, who sits at 30-32¢. Vagaev’s efficient double-leg takedown and grappling management seem like driving the market’s confidence.
The wider Kalshi-Polymarket unfold right here, in comparison with the near-identical numbers on different bouts, suggests actual uncertainty about whether or not Izagakhmaev’s hanging can offset Vagaev’s grappling strain.
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
The preliminary card is headlined by heavyweight grappler Valter Walker, who’s chasing his fifth consecutive heel-hook end and represents one of the must-watch submission threats on your entire card in opposition to Thomas Petersen. Right behind it, UFC veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio squares off with Sam Patterson in a welterweight bout that pairs a well-traveled striker in opposition to a rising prospect seeking to make a press release, whereas Ismael Bonfim takes on Axel Sola in a light-weight conflict value monitoring for live-line motion given Bonfim’s ending instincts.
Further down the cardboard, mild heavyweight motion continues with Dustin Jacoby dealing with Muhammad Said, a matchup between a sturdy veteran and a hungry newcomer attempting to interrupt into the rankings. The bantamweight pairing of Abdul Hussein and Cody Gibson additionally deserves consideration, as does the light-weight bout between Nurullo Aliev, unbeaten at 11-0, and the extra skilled Mike Davis, a combat with actual ending upside on each side given Aliev’s excellent file and Davis’s veteran toughness.
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