US National Debt Nears $38 Trillion, Adds $6B Daily as Gold and Bitcoin Hit ATH – Is BTC the Answer?

The United States’ (US) nationwide debt has surged to $37.88 trillion as of October 2, 2025, rising at a charge of $69,891 per second, or roughly $6 billion day by day, over the previous yr, in keeping with Congressman David Schweikert’s Daily Debt Monitor.

The debt has elevated by $2.2 trillion since October 2024, amounting to $283,098 per family.

Meanwhile, the common rate of interest on whole marketable debt stands at 3.415 p.c, leading to the authorities paying $241.26 billion in curiosity to belief funds over the previous 12 months.

The accelerating debt trajectory has coincided with large strikes in different property, as Bitcoin surged previous $125,000 for the first time on October 5 and gold hit a document $3,924.39 per troy ounce on October 7.

The greenback is on observe for its worst yr since 1973, down over 10% year-to-date and having misplaced 40% of its buying energy since 2000.

Bloomberg analysts described the phenomenon as a “debasement commerce,” with traders fleeing main currencies for perceived security in Bitcoin, gold, and silver.

Assuming the common day by day progress charge over the previous three years continues, the U.S. will attain $38 trillion by roughly December 9, 2025, with every further trillion {dollars} collected in roughly 169 days.

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts web curiosity as a share of outlays to succeed in 13.55% in fiscal yr 2025, rising to 14.11% by 2027.

Approximately 31% of publicly held marketable debt is anticipated to mature inside 12 months as of Q3 2025, creating important rollover threat.

Dollar Weakness Fuels Unprecedented Asset Correlation as Safe Havens Rally With Stocks

The correlation coefficient between gold and the S&P 500 reached a document 0.91 in 2024, that means the conventional safe-haven asset and threat property moved in tandem 91% of the time, in keeping with evaluation from The Kobeissi Letter.

The S&P 500 has surged 40% over six months, including $16 trillion in market capitalization, whereas the Nasdaq 100 posted six consecutive month-to-month good points for less than the seventh time since 1986.

JPMorgan analysts, together with Meera Chandan, wrote that “the acquainted sample of greenback debasement in opposition to different reserve property amid Washington dysfunction” has resurfaced, with treasured metals rallying in a broad-based style much like strikes following the international monetary disaster and years of quantitative easing.

Gold has climbed practically 47% year-to-date in 2025, boosted by over 1,000 tons of central financial institution purchases, led by China and India, alongside Federal Reserve charge cuts which have weakened the greenback.

The uncommon simultaneous rally throughout protected havens, threat property, actual property, and inflation indicators suggests markets are pricing in a brand new period of financial coverage, in keeping with The Kobeissi Letter.

The Federal Reserve is chopping charges to 4.0% annualized inflation since 2020 and to 2.9% core PCE inflation for the first time since the Nineteen Nineties, whereas market-based inflation expectations over the subsequent 5-10 years proceed to rise past central financial institution management.

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin now rank amongst the prime 10 largest property globally, with gold valued at $26.3 trillion, silver at $2.7 trillion, after gaining over 60% year-to-date, and Bitcoin reaching a $2.5 trillion market cap.

The political conditions throughout the US, Japan, and Europe present further momentum, with the yen tumbling 1.6% in opposition to the greenback as pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi’s victory boosted expectations for fiscal stimulus.

At the similar time, the euro additionally slipped amid contemporary political uncertainty in France.

The ongoing US government shutdown, which started on October 1 on account of partisan finances disagreements, has furloughed 800,000 federal workers, whereas one other 700,000 work with out pay.

The shutdown has delayed crucial financial knowledge releases, together with employment numbers and inflation experiences, including to market uncertainty and supporting safe-haven asset good points.

Bitcoin Outperforms S&P 500 by 88% Since 2020 as Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Bitcoin has delivered returns vastly exceeding conventional fairness benchmarks, with a $100 funding in Bitcoin from the starting of 2020 value $1,473.87 by July 2025 in comparison with simply $209.85 for the similar funding in the S&P 500, in keeping with OfficialData.Org.

The cryptocurrency is up 32% year-to-date after hitting $125,000, whereas the S&P 500 has risen 14.43% to $6,715.79.

Ethereum additionally rallied above $4,600, pushing the whole cryptocurrency market capitalization to a document $4.35 trillion, following historic October good points averaging 20% over the previous 12 years.

Cryptocurrencies have exploded in adoption as traders search new methods to retain worth amid persistent inflation and greenback debasement considerations.

The Kobeissi Letter warned that the widespread rush into all property will solely widen the historic US wealth divide, with the backside 50% of households now holding simply 2.5% of whole U.S. wealth.

Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, job openings have plummeted whereas shares have soared, suggesting a generational macroeconomic shift during which asset homeowners profit disproportionately.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential Blow-Off Top Before Major Correction

Chart evaluation marks the latest peak round $109,360 as “Actual Cycle TOP” with present $125K ATH representing the starting of the remaining blow-off section towards the $140,000-$155,000 goal zone.

The “invalidation value watch” sits at $106,000, offering a transparent stage the place this thesis would fail. The timeline suggests this remaining peak would happen quickly, adopted by a extreme correction.

Bitcoin might push towards $140,000-$155,000 in a remaining 15-25% blow-off rally earlier than a extreme correction this yr, with the $106,000 stage serving as crucial help.

A break beneath invalidates the blow-off state of affairs and might sign the begin of a serious downturn.

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