US Traders Fuel 25% of Tracked Offshore Prediction Market Volume
US-based customers account for $11 billion to $34 billion in annual buying and selling on offshore prediction markets, in accordance with a brand new examine from Crane & Zeng Consulting commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets.
The estimate arrives because the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) works on its framework and Congress weighs participation limits.
American Demand Fuels Offshore Prediction Markets Outside Regulator Reach
The examine covers main offshore venues: Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. Its central estimate ties about 25% of tracked offshore quantity, or $21.2 billion, to US merchants.
Polymarket’s worldwide platform geoblocks US web addresses. Reaching it from the US requires a virtual private network (VPN), which violates the platform’s phrases.
Researchers estimate that roughly 30% of Polymarket’s $55.6 billion in annual quantity traces to American customers. That share runs from $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion.
“At least 7% of world prediction market buying and selling quantity (regulated and offshore) through the TTM (roughly $10.6 billion of an estimated $159 billion mixed whole) is attributable to US customers transacting on offshore venues. This estimate is meant to be conservative, with a believable estimated vary of 7–21% ($10.6B–$34B) of world (regulated and offshore) prediction market exercise attributed to US customers on offshore platforms,” the report learn.
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A Regulated Alternative Already Exists
Polymarket US opened in December 2025 as a platform under CFTC oversight. It operates as a delegated contract market (DCM) and a derivatives clearing group (DCO).
The firm eliminated its US waitlist in May 2026 and now serves greater than 40 states. However, state regulators proceed to problem the product. A Nevada courtroom granted a preliminary injunction towards Polymarket. Moreover, Minnesota passed a ban set to begin in August 2026.
The report famous that American merchants can now legally entry prediction markets by means of CFTC-licensed venues like Kalshi. Yet, giant volumes nonetheless stream by means of offshore platforms past US oversight.
Despite this, regulated venues have grown sooner. Their quantity jumped 866% from 2024 to 2025, towards 179% offshore. Kalshi’s month-to-month quantity rose roughly 22-fold to $14.81 billion by April 2026, whereas Polymarket’s climbed about sevenfold to $9.01 billion.
Analysts anticipate the sector to maintain increasing sharply. Bernstein projected in April 2026 that whole quantity might method $1 trillion by 2030, an 80% compound annual development fee.
It sees business income climbing from $0.4 billion in 2025 to $10.8 billion in 2030. The report argues that tighter guidelines on regulated venues might push extra development offshore, past US regulators’ attain.
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The submit US Traders Fuel 25% of Tracked Offshore Prediction Market Volume appeared first on BeInCrypto.
