Weaker Dollar and Steeper Curve Could Fuel Bitcoin Recovery, Analysts Say
Bitcoin has entered 2026 with early indicators of stabilization after a difficult finish to 2025. The cryptocurrency consolidated between $85,000 and $94,000 whereas gaining over 3% within the first buying and selling periods as equities softened.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the shift follows a year-end marked by skinny liquidity and tax-loss harvesting, which pushed BTC down 6.44% in 2025, even because the S&P 500 closed close to report highs with a 16.33% annual acquire.
The tempo of ETF-driven promoting has additionally slowed materially heading into year-end, suggesting a lot of the de-risking could already be priced in.
With liquidity circumstances anticipated to enhance by means of early 2026, analysts consider upcoming ETF move knowledge will show vital in figuring out whether or not recent institutional capital returns to digital belongings or warning continues to dominate positioning.
Macro Backdrop Shifts as Yield Curve Steepens
Bitfinex analysts assert that two reinforcing tendencies are shaping US macro circumstances:
- Steepening yield curve.
- Structurally weaker greenback.
The Treasury curve has moved decisively out of the inverted state it held from 2022 to 2024, pushed by expectations of eventual coverage easing on the entrance finish.
At the identical time, long-dated yields stay elevated because of inflation uncertainty, heavy issuance, and fiscal considerations.
The unfold between two-year and 30-year Treasuries has widened to roughly 140 foundation factors, whereas the two-to-ten-year curve has reached round 70 foundation factors.
Analysts famous this configuration as a repricing of period and credibility danger slightly than renewed development optimism, holding monetary circumstances tighter than headline charge cuts alone would counsel.
Meanwhile, the US greenback has weakened meaningfully 12 months thus far, declining roughly 9% from January 2025 ranges regardless of a modest rebound towards year-end.
The depreciation, in response to analysts, displays coverage preferences for improved commerce competitiveness and a gradual reassessment of US coverage credibility following tariff choices and multilateral withdrawals earlier within the 12 months.
Beyond instant forex dynamics, the report famous that the greenback’s structural foundations stay intact, supported by deep capital markets and sustained demand for Treasuries.
The stability of dangers factors to a managed depreciation slightly than a reversal, creating an atmosphere the place elevated long-end yields and a softer greenback reward belongings with near-term money flows and defensive traits.
Corporate and Sovereign Crypto Adoption Advances
Corporate treasury-led accumulation remained a dominant theme by means of year-end. Strategy Inc. strengthened its long-term Bitcoin method with one other early-January purchase, lifting its holdings to 673,783 BTC.
BitMine Immersion Technologies additionally deepened its dedication to Ethereum, rising its holdings to roughly 4.14 million ETH whereas expanding into staking and validator infrastructure.
Analysts notably famous the corporate’s shift from passive accumulation towards yield-generating, on-chain methods, with roughly 408,627 ETH already staked and plans to launch a proprietary validator community in early Q1 2026.
Chairman Thomas Lee characterised BitMine as “a number one supply of incremental demand for ETH,” citing continued accumulation amid year-end promoting strain.
The firm added more than 32,977 ETH in the most recent week alone as seasonal tax-related dynamics created favorable entry factors for long-term patrons.
Bitmine Immersion, chaired by Tom Lee, added 32,977 ETH up to now week, lifting its crypto + money holdings to $14.2B. #Ethereum #Bitmine https://t.co/BZxDjLifGA
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 5, 2026
At the sovereign stage, Bitfinex analysts additionally famous Turkmenistan’s introduction of a legal framework allowing home crypto mining and buying and selling underneath central financial institution oversight, marking a notable coverage shift for one of many world’s most closed economies.
While the legislation formalizes licensing and regulatory supervision, it stops wanting recognizing cryptocurrencies as authorized tender and maintains strict controls on web entry.
Analysts See Selective Liquidity Environment Ahead
“While Bitcoin consolidated in a decent vary to shut 2025, seemingly weighed down by year-end tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing, the brand new 12 months has opened with glimmers of positivity,” Bitfinex analysts instructed Cryptonews.
“The US Treasury curve has moved decisively out of the inverted state it skilled from 2022-2024, reflecting a macro atmosphere the place liquidity improves selectively.“
The mixture of elevated long-end yields and a softer greenback defines an atmosphere that rewards belongings with near-term money flows, pricing energy, and actual or defensive traits, which might considerably profit Bitcoin.
“As we transfer into early 2026, upcoming ETF move knowledge would be the vital sign to verify whether or not institutional urge for food is really re-entering the market or if warning nonetheless dominates positioning,” the analysts added.
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