What Happens If The Bitcoin Price Closes 2025 In The Red? Analyst Answers

Bitcoin is heading into the ultimate stretch of 2025 with an uncommon setup. Despite printing a brand new all-time high in October, the value has since pulled back enough to place the annual efficiency prone to closing unfavourable. That distinction places into context how the present cycle needs to be interpreted and what it means for Bitcoin’s price outlook. According to 1 analyst, the reply is much less dramatic than it might seem at first look, and Bitcoin may be about to enter right into a bear market.

A Red Close Would Identify A Bear Market, Not A Broken Cycle

Bitcoin’s long-term worth motion has usually adopted a well-recognized rhythm, with three consecutive inexperienced yearly candles finally giving option to a pink shut. This sequence has appeared a number of occasions since 2011, main many merchants to count on the identical construction to repeat within the present cycle. This time, nevertheless, the sample has shifted. Although each 2023 and 2024 closed within the inexperienced, 2025 is on monitor to complete unfavourable, interrupting the standard development.

Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noted that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would merely affirm that the cycle has transitioned right into a bear part, not that the four-year cycle is damaged. In his view, the colour of the yearly candle is commonly misunderstood. What matters most is the place Bitcoin kinds its cycle highs and lows, not whether or not a particular post-halving 12 months finishes inexperienced or pink.

He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the yearly candle is more likely to kind a doji candlestick. In technical evaluation, doji candles mirror indecision after robust upside enlargement and infrequently result in development reversals. 

In this context, such an in depth would correspond with Bitcoin having already accomplished its cycle prime earlier in October, when it reached a brand new peak of $126,080. In earlier cycles, as soon as a brand new high is about within the post-halving 12 months, Bitcoin’s worth motion transitions into a protracted corrective part no matter how that 12 months finally closes.

Bitcoin Chart Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1

What To Expect For Bitcoin In 2026

Responding to feedback on his technical evaluation on X, Crypto analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that he’s sticking with an evaluation he first shared on December 2, which additionally proposes that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. Bitcoin opened 2025 round $93,396 and has since fallen effectively beneath its October peak, a construction he says carefully resembles the post-top consolidation seen in 2019.

In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent months buying and selling roughly 30% beneath its high whereas altcoins, measured by means of the OTHERS/BTC chart, fashioned a cycle backside and started to get better. CryptoBullet believes the identical dynamic is unfolding now, however on a bigger scale, with altcoins having underperformed Bitcoin for almost 4 years. 

Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X

Based on that setup, he expects a lifeless cat bounce in early 2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, earlier than a a lot deeper correction takes maintain throughout Bitcoin because the bear market progresses.