What Will Collinsworth Say? Super Bowl Mentions Could Be Worth $5 Million in Volume

NFL announcer point out markets are heading into their largest occasion but. Kalshi has listed 34 phrases for Super Bowl LX, every resolving primarily based solely on whether or not NBC’s Mike Tirico or Cris Collinsworth says them throughout Sunday’s broadcast of the Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots.

The idea is easy: purchase Yes in the event you suppose a time period will get stated, purchase No in the event you don’t. A successful contract pays $1. But what began as a curiosity at the start of the NFL season has quietly turn into one of many fastest-growing product classes in prediction markets, producing an estimated $48 million in whole quantity throughout 61 NFL video games this season, based on DeFi Rate’s Super Bowl mention market tracker.

As of Friday afternoon (two days earlier than the Big Game), Kalshi’s market had over $1.2 million in quantity ($115K for Polymarket). Our analyst believes this market may attain $5 million on Sunday.

“Mention markets have grown in recognition for just a few causes: the general platform progress, their profitable virality and the truth that vital edge stays to be found in these new markets,” Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such told David Purdum final week.

That final half, “vital edge stays to be found,” is a notable admission. It means that these markets are nonetheless inefficient, and that merchants prepared to do the homework on announcer tendencies, matchup narratives, and order e-book dynamics can discover worth that informal individuals are leaving on the desk.

Considering that nugget, let’s dig into the place these edges would possibly lie primarily based on particular announcer tendencies and recreation narratives. But first, a take a look at the explosive progress of NFL mentions buying and selling throughout the season.

How point out markets grew 715% in a single NFL season

DeFi Rate has tracked NFL point out market quantity throughout all 61 Kalshi markets provided this season, from the September opener via the Conference Championships. The progress trajectory tells a transparent story: regular adoption via the common season, adopted by an exponential playoff surge.

During the common season, common quantity per market held in a comparatively tight band between $318,000 and $601,000. The markets had been steady however nonetheless comparatively area of interest. Then got here the playoffs. Wild Card weekend averaged $1.41 million per market — a 3.3x bounce from the common season. By the Conference Championships, that quantity had reached $3.55 million, an 8.1x improve over the September opener and a 715% progress charge for the season.

The scale additionally jumped in December as Kalshi went from providing 5 NFL point out markets in November to 35 in December — a 7x improve in provide. Per-market quantity dipped simply 6%, from $601,000 to $567,000. But the important thing level is that demand stored tempo with provide somewhat than diluting, signaling that the product had discovered actual market match.

For context, NFL point out markets generate $788,000 in common quantity per market — greater than double the per-market common for political point out markets ($388,000 throughout 303 markets) and practically 5 occasions the speed of NBA point out markets ($159,000 throughout 66 markets), regardless of the NFL having far fewer whole markets listed. The per-market depth displays a concentrated, engaged buying and selling base.

What point out markets can be found for the Super Bowl

Kalshi’s Super Bowl point out market consists of 34 phrases, every structured as a binary Yes/No contract. Resolution is easy: if Tirico or Collinsworth says the time period through the broadcast, Yes pays $1. If neither says it, No pays $1.

This is a essential distinction value understanding. On Kalshi, solely the 2 sales space announcers depend; sideline reporting doesn’t depend. Neither do feedback from gamers, coaches caught on subject mics, or halftime analysts. The decision is scoped particularly to Tirico and Collinsworth, which makes their particular person broadcasting tendencies the one most essential variable for merchants to investigate.

Polymarket additionally has 27 point out market phrases listed for the Super Bowl, however with a broader decision rule: anybody talking on the printed can set off a Yes, together with gamers, coaches, and sideline interviews. It’s value noting that Polymarket’s point out markets are solely accessible on its international platform and are not accessible to U.S. merchants on Polymarket US, which presently solely provides sports activities markets accepted by the CFTC. For U.S.-based merchants, Kalshi is the first venue for Super Bowl point out market contracts.

Here’s how present pricing breaks down on Kalshi’s Super Bowl point out market, organized by chance tier. Our live Super Bowl mention market has real-time odds and quantity knowledge throughout each platforms.

Current Super Bowl point out markets odds snapshot:

The Collinsworth issue: broadcasting tendencies that transfer costs

Cris Collinsworth is asking his sixth Super Bowl — tied with Troy Aikman for essentially the most amongst lively colour analysts. This is his fourth season in the sales space with Tirico on Sunday Night Football. That quantity of on-air time has produced a set of well-documented broadcasting patterns, and people patterns at the moment are straight mirrored in point out market pricing.

The Mahomes obsession

The most-discussed point out market contract heading into Sunday is “Mahomes,” presently buying and selling at 76¢ cents on Kalshi (76% implied chance). Patrick Mahomes is a three-time Super Bowl champion who has appeared in 5 Super Bowls, together with final yr’s recreation, however he has no direct involvement in Super Bowl LX. The market exists solely due to Collinsworth’s well-established tendency to reference Mahomes no matter who’s enjoying. The tendency has turn into such a dependable a part of his commentary that it’s spawned its personal meme ecosystem.

At Super Bowl Radio Row this week, Collinsworth addressed it straight: “I in all probability will say Patrick Mahomes’ identify, and I don’t know why. But now that you just’ve planted it in my head, I assume you wager the over and also you’re making an attempt to get me to do this.”

For merchants, the self-awareness cuts each methods. On one hand, Collinsworth simply confirmed the tendency is actual and that he’s unlikely to suppress it. On the opposite, there’s a small probability the heightened consciousness leads him to consciously keep away from it, although nothing in his broadcasting historical past means that form of restraint.

At 27¢, the ‘No’ contract implies a 27% probability Collinsworth will get via a complete Super Bowl broadcast — one that includes two quarterbacks who invite comparability to elite predecessors — with out mentioning the very best quarterback in soccer. Traders ought to value that situation accordingly.

Historical callback tendencies and the Seahawks-Patriots narrative

Collinsworth leans closely on legacy narratives, and this particular matchup provides him an unusually deep nicely to attract from. The Seahawks and Patriots met in Super Bowl XLIX in February 2015, producing probably the most analyzed ultimate performs in NFL historical past: Malcolm Butler’s interception on the aim line, the choice to not hand off to Marshawn Lynch, and the collapse of what many thought-about Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” dynasty.

Several Kalshi contracts are priced straight across the chance that Collinsworth revisits that historical past:

Term	Kalshi Price	Why Collinsworth is prone to reference it
Tom Brady	90¢	The defining determine of the Patriots franchise is a near-certainty when New England is in the Super Bowl. Collinsworth has praised Brady extensively all through his profession. Brady can be in Fox’s broadcast sales space this yr, which NBC will possible acknowledge.
Legion of Boom	70.5¢	Seattle’s iconic early-2010s secondary with Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor. Collinsworth known as these video games and can draw comparisons to the present protection underneath Mike Macdonald.
Marshawn Lynch	68¢	Beast Mode’s shadow looms giant over any Seahawks Super Bowl. The choice to not run Lynch on the 1-yard line in XLIX is likely one of the most debated calls in NFL historical past.
Russell Wilson	64.5¢	The former Seahawks QB who threw the interception that ended XLIX. The emotional resonance of that second for the franchise makes it a pure callback, particularly with a brand new QB (Sam Darnold) getting the chance Wilson by no means acquired once more in Seattle.
Dynasty	62¢	The Patriots’ six-title run underneath Brady and Belichick defines the phrase in fashionable soccer. New coach Mike Vrabel — a former Patriots participant and three-time Super Bowl champion with New England — provides one other layer.
Gronk / Gronkowski	60¢	Multiple Super Bowl touchdowns, a Hall of Fame profession, and a character that makes him a pure reference level. Likely in attendance or referenced by the printed.

The matchup narrative virtually ensures that Collinsworth will weave via a number of of those threads through the broadcast. A Seahawks red-zone drive in the fourth quarter, as an example, would virtually actually set off references to Lynch, the Butler interception, and probably Wilson in speedy succession. Traders fascinated about correlated outcomes throughout a number of contracts might discover worth in bundling a number of of those mid-range historic callback phrases.

Collinsworth’s QB-centric evaluation fashion

Beyond particular names, Collinsworth’s commentary is disproportionately targeted on quarterback analysis. He persistently breaks down QB mechanics, decision-making, and composure underneath stress, and he defaults to comparisons with elite contemporaries — primarily Mahomes and Brady.

This tendency is related for a Super Bowl that includes two contrasting quarterback narratives. Drake Maye is a second-year Patriots quarterback in his first Super Bowl, a clean canvas for Collinsworth’s analytical breakdowns. Sam Darnold carries one of many NFL’s most compelling redemption tales — the “seeing ghosts” second with the Jets, the journeyman years, and now a Super Bowl begin in a metropolis that gave up on him. Expect Collinsworth to lean into each narratives, with frequent comparisons to previous quarterbacks who confronted comparable moments.

Term	Kalshi Price	QB narrative connection
Record	87.5¢	Any statistical milestone from both QB or the sport itself. Collinsworth frequently cites data to contextualize QB efficiency.
Comeback / Come Back	93.5¢	One of the highest-probability phrases. If the sport is aggressive in any respect, this resolves Yes. Directly tied to the Darnold redemption arc and any in-game deficit.
Pro Bowl / Pro Bowler	75¢	Collinsworth often references Pro Bowl alternatives when evaluating participant caliber. Multiple Pro Bowlers on each rosters.
Next Gen Stat	88¢	NBC’s proprietary analytics. Tirico or Collinsworth frequently cite these throughout broadcast to focus on QB launch time, separation, and different measurables.

What about Tirico?

Mike Tirico is asking his first Super Bowl as NBC’s lead play-by-play voice, a milestone in its personal proper. His fashion is extra measured and factual than Collinsworth’s — he narrates the motion somewhat than editorializing it. As a consequence, Tirico is the extra possible set off for phrases that fall into customary play-by-play vocabulary: “Safety” (97.5%), “MVP” (96.5%), “Lombardi” (95.5%), “Levi’s” (94%), and “Record” (87.5%).

One angle value watching: each head coaches are named Mike: Mike Vrabel (New England) and Mike Macdonald (Seattle). Analysts have famous Tirico might reference the “Mike vs. Mike” dynamic given it’s his first identify too. This doesn’t have a devoted contract, nevertheless it’s the form of setup that naturally leads into different point out market phrases like “honor” or “file” as Tirico contextualizes the teaching matchup.

The mid-range: the place the fascinating trades stay

The near-certainties (Safety at 97.5%, MVP at 96.5%) and the lengthy photographs (Assault at 17%, Roughing the Passer at 20%) don’t provide a lot room for evaluation. The contracts value finding out are in the 50–75% vary, the place the market is genuinely unsure and particular data concerning the broadcast, matchup, and announcer tendencies can create an informational edge.

Term	Kalshi Price	Why it may resolve Yes	Why it won’t
Mahomes	70¢	Collinsworth’s documented tendency; self-acknowledged at Radio Row. Neither QB is Mahomes-caliber, inviting the comparability.	Collinsworth may consciously keep away from it given the heightened consideration. No Chiefs connection to the sport.
Legion of Boom	70.5¢	Seahawks in the Super Bowl = speedy callback to their final Super Bowl period. Collinsworth known as these video games.	The present Seattle protection is constructed in a different way. The reference might really feel compelled if the protection isn’t dominant early.
Marshawn Lynch	68¢	The goal-line choice in XLIX is likely one of the most mentioned performs ever. A Seahawks red-zone sequence would virtually actually set off it.	If the sport script doesn’t produce a comparable second, the reference might not come up organically.
Wind / Windy	67.5¢	Levi’s Stadium is an open-air venue in Santa Clara. February climate in the Bay Area could be unpredictable, and any wind impacts kicking and passing.	Calm circumstances would take away the necessity to focus on it. Weather is inherently unpredictable.
Russell Wilson	64.5¢	The ghost of XLIX. Wilson threw the interception that misplaced that recreation. A Seahawks Super Bowl with out mentioning their final Super Bowl QB appears unlikely.	Wilson is now with a special workforce and has no direct involvement. It’s a backward-looking reference.
Dynasty	62¢	The Patriots are the dynasty. Vrabel was a part of it as a participant. The franchise returning to the Super Bowl naturally invitations that framing.	It may really feel untimely to use the time period to the present iteration of the workforce, which has no titles.
Schedule	56.5¢	The NFL’s 18-game season debate has been an ongoing story. Networks usually reference scheduling throughout Super Bowl broadcasts.	It’s not a pure game-flow matter. Would require a deliberate editorial section.
Tush Push	55¢	The Eagles’ signature play turned a league-wide speaking level. Collinsworth has referenced it in non-Eagles video games.	Neither workforce runs it. The reference could be purely tangential.
Cardi B	50.5¢	Bad Bunny is performing the halftime present. Cardi B and Bad Bunny have collaborated on songs together with “I Like It.” Halftime commentary may set off this.	Collinsworth and Tirico sometimes don’t name the halftime present. This would possible want to return from a broader broadcast section.

How merchants discover edge: order books, fashions and what to observe for

For merchants contemplating Super Bowl point out markets, the method is completely different from sports activities betting or buying and selling on precise Super Bowl game odds or Super Bowl MVP. You’re not predicting what occurs on the sphere; you’re predicting what comes out of two particular folks’s mouths over the course of a three-plus hour broadcast. That distinction creates each alternatives and pitfalls.

Reading the order e-book

Mention markets on Kalshi are traded via a central restrict order e-book, the identical construction utilized by inventory exchanges. This means you may see resting bids and asks earlier than putting your individual order, and the depth of the e-book at numerous value ranges reveals details about how different merchants are positioned.

During a live stream on Hive analyzing Super Bowl props and point out markets, dealer @FhantomBets recognized imbalance in the order e-book as “sharp cash” — an indication that somebody with high conviction and vital capital was closely positioned. And it was apparent what well-known point out market merchants had been behind the bids, regardless that particular person trades on Kalshi are nameless.

The lesson for Super Bowl point out market merchants: in these comparatively low-liquidity markets, giant positional measurement at particular value ranges can reveal the place knowledgeable cash is sitting. Before coming into a place, take a look at each side of the order e-book. If one aspect has considerably extra depth concentrated at tight value ranges, that asymmetry is data.

What to concentrate on earlier than buying and selling

A couple of sensible concerns for anybody taking a look at these contracts:

Liquidity varies broadly throughout phrases. The highest-volume Super Bowl point out contracts — Safety, Mahomes, Tom Brady — have 1000’s of {dollars} in 24-hour quantity and tight bid-ask spreads. Lower-probability contracts like Assault or Roughing the Passer might have wider spreads and fewer depth, that means you could possibly get crammed at a worse value than anticipated, or battle to exit a place earlier than decision.

Resolution is binary and ultimate. There’s no partial credit score. If the contract is “Marshawn Lynch” and Collinsworth says “Lynch” with out the primary identify, the decision depends upon Kalshi’s particular contract language. Read the decision guidelines for every particular person contract earlier than buying and selling.

The broadcast is longer than you suppose. NBC’s Super Bowl protection will run for hours, together with intensive pregame segments. However, Kalshi contracts sometimes resolve primarily based on the sport broadcast itself (kick to ultimate whistle), not the complete pre- and post-game protection. Verify the precise decision window.

Correlated occasions matter. Many point out market phrases aren’t impartial. If Collinsworth begins discussing the Seahawks’ final Super Bowl look, he’s prone to point out Legion of Boom, Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson, and probably the Malcolm Butler interception in the identical two-minute section. Traders with positions throughout a number of correlated contracts ought to perceive {that a} single storyline shift can resolve a number of contracts concurrently.

Announcer consciousness creates a meta-game. Collinsworth is aware of about these markets. He acknowledged it publicly at Radio Row. Whether that consciousness makes him extra prone to lean into anticipated references (enjoying to the viewers) or extra cautious about them (avoiding the looks of market affect) is genuinely unsure. NBC has not publicly commented on whether or not it has supplied any steering to its broadcast workforce relating to point out markets.

A season-long sign for the prediction market business

The progress of NFL point out markets this season is greater than a novelty story. It represents one of many clearest use instances for occasion contract buying and selling: a time-bounded, high-attention occasion with well-defined decision standards and a various vary of chance outcomes. The incontrovertible fact that point out markets generated $788,000 in common quantity per market — outpacing each different mentions class DeFi Rate tracks on a per-market foundation — suggests they’ve discovered real product-market match.

The buying and selling quantity of NFL point out markets tells a transparent story about client demand. At $160 million+ in whole Super Bowl buying and selling quantity on Kalshi alone throughout all market sorts, that is now not a fringe product.

For point out markets particularly, the Super Bowl is the fruits of a season that noticed per-market quantity develop from underneath half 1,000,000 {dollars} to north of $3.5 million. Watch for the buying and selling quantity in the NFL championship recreation to far surpass that through the course of Sunday’s broadcast.

The submit What Will Collinsworth Say? Super Bowl Mentions Could Be Worth $5 Million in Volume appeared first on DeFi Rate.