When Past Shutdown Ended, Bitcoin Soared 96% and 157%

After 41 days of partial authorities closure, the United States could quickly reopen. At the identical time, President Donald Trump introduced a “tariff dividend” plan —a proposed $2,000 profit for each American citizen —seen as a robust fiscal stimulus sign.

These two developments have sparked investor hypothesis: Are traders driving Bitcoin towards a brand new breakout as liquidity returns to the U.S. economic system?

US Government Shutdown Ends: Liquidity Set to Return to the Market?

According to journalist Nick Sortor on X, the Continuing Resolution was passed within the Senate by a 60:40 vote. This resolution paves the best way to finish the 41-day-long authorities shutdown, the longest in latest historical past.

However, the invoice nonetheless requires closing approval from the House of Representatives and the President’s signature earlier than formally taking impact. This course of may very well be accomplished within the coming days. Polymarket prediction data reveals that greater than 90% of traders are assured the US authorities shutdown will formally finish this week.

News of the federal government reopening started spreading throughout social media earlier this week, sending US equities, gold, silver, and Bitcoin (BTC) greater.

“News that the federal government shutdown is ending despatched inventory futures, gold, silver, and Bitcoin rallying. The deal means it’s again to enterprise as normal in Washington, DC. Deficits and inflation will rise, and traders will proceed to hunt options to depreciating US {dollars},” economist Peter Schiff commented.

Historically, Bitcoin has reacted strongly after earlier US shutdowns ended. According to a publish shared on X, Bitcoin surged 96% and 157% following comparable resolutions in February 2018 and January 2019.

However, it’s price noting that Bitcoin’s previous rallies could have coincided with broader market recoveries moderately than being induced solely by the top of the shutdown. Moreover, even when historical past repeats, such value will increase sometimes lag by a number of weeks amid shifting macroeconomic situations.

Although the invoice has not but been signed into regulation, the Senate’s approval has already despatched a optimistic psychological sign to the market. The expectation of returning liquidity might immediate traders to rotate into risk-on property resembling Bitcoin. In the quick time period, BTC could maintain its upward momentum if the ultimate legislative steps are accomplished. This might doubtlessly set off a broader “risk-on” wave throughout international markets.

“Tariff Dividend”: Trump’s New Fiscal Stimulus and Its Impact on Bitcoin

Just earlier than the reopening course of started, President Donald Trump unveiled the “tariff dividend”, a proposed $2,000 cost for each American citizen. He additionally launched a number of eye-catching monetary proposals, together with 50-year mortgage loans, direct insurance coverage payouts, and chopping subsidies for insurance coverage companies. This transfer indicators a robust dedication to expanding fiscal spending in 2026.

If carried out, the “tariff dividend” might inject lots of of billions of {dollars} into the economic system, creating spillover results throughout monetary and crypto markets.

However, as noted by Ian Miles Cheong, citing monetary advisor Scott Bessent, the “tariff dividend” may not be a direct money cost. Instead, it might take the type of tax aid or a “no tax on suggestions” coverage.

Regardless of type, it stays a possible fiscal stimulus measure that might enhance liquidity. This might bolster client spending, which is favorable for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: A Turning Point or a Bull Trap Before the Next Wave?

The present macro backdrop mirrors the setup previous Bitcoin’s highly effective 2020 rally. Bitcoin as soon as once more emerges as a dual-nature asset, each a retailer of worth and a high-risk, high-reward funding.

Currently, Bitcoin stands on the sting between a bullish breakout and a possible bear lure. If new fiscal measures are totally carried out and liquidity genuinely returns to the system, BTC might mark the start of a brand new development cycle. Conversely, if insurance policies face delays or scaled-down implementation, Bitcoin could expertise a short-term correction section. This might result in a renewed accumulation section earlier than long-term development resumes.

Currently, the BTC price stays surprisingly steady close to $105,300, regardless of selling pressure that has spiked by greater than 1,300% as short-term wallets flood exchanges. In another analysis, the 65-month liquidity cycle is nearing its peak in Q1-Q2 2026. It suggests a 15-20% correction in Bitcoin as valuations overheat, although timing stays unsure.

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