Who’s Selling Bitcoin? Fidelity Research Boss Breaks It Down

Visible shopping for from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving merchants to ask a blunt query: who’s supplying the market?

For Chris Kuiper, CFA, vp of analysis at Fidelity Digital Assets, the answer is evident. “ ‘Who is promoting?’ is the primary query I’ve been getting concerning bitcoin’s continued value stress in opposition to a backdrop of seen shopping for,” he wrote on X on November 12. “I’m not distinctive in suggesting it’s the long-term holders (or HODLers).”

Kuiper factors to a easy however highly effective on-chain gauge: the share of excellent bitcoin that has not moved for at the very least one 12 months. Glassnode’s “Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” rises in bear markets as cash age in place and traders sit on unrealized losses, then sometimes falls sharply when bull markets let those self same traders exit into energy.

“As you may see within the chart under, this line goes up throughout bear markets … after which often a dramatic decline as these longer-term holders promote into the energy of a bull market,” Kuiper defined. What stands out to him at the moment is that “with this cycle” the drawdown is “a comparatively light slope down.” When bitcoin hit new highs earlier this 12 months, the long-term-holder line “didn’t plunge,” he stated. Instead, the market has been experiencing “a constant sluggish bleed because the market has slowly moved sideways and up.”

That sluggish bleed aligns with what Kuiper says he hears from the consumer facet. “Bitcoin’s efficiency has not too long ago lagged gold’s, even the S&P, and individuals are getting drained,” he wrote. Many traders, in his view, had been positioned for a textbook four-year cycle blow-off and have been “ready to promote into the traditionally robust seasonality of October and now November.”

When October’s typical energy didn’t materialize and year-end approached, “long-term holders wish to make year-end tax and positional modifications, calling it a day with the positive aspects they have already got.”

The Glassnode chart reveals how totally different this seems to be from previous cycles. In the 2017–2018 run-up and subsequent reversal, the share of cash final lively greater than a 12 months in the past rolled over violently as value spiked after which collapsed. In the present cycle, the curve that represents long-term-holder provide has been trending decrease since 2023, however with out the vertical collapse usually related to euphoric distribution.

On-chain analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant added one other layer by reframing the identical dynamic as “1-year inactive provide drawdown” in share factors of complete provide. “Here’s one other method to visualize this,” he replied to Kuiper, “by trying on the 1-year inactive provide drawdown by way of % of complete Bitcoin provide.”

Moreno quantified the final three main cycles. In 2017–2018, 1-year inactive provide declined by about 20 share factors of complete provide. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was round 10 share factors. In the 2024–2025 interval up to now, the decline is once more roughly 10 share factors. The CryptoQuant chart, which makes use of an inverted scale, renders that as a purple wave that rises as extra long-dormant cash are spent or reallocated.

This implies that long-term holders have already launched a quantity of provide akin to the 2021 cycle, even whether it is nonetheless effectively under the 2017–2018 peak. What differs is the tempo. Rather than a brief burst of profit-taking on the high, the market has absorbed roughly a 10-percentage-point discount in inactive provide over an extended, choppier value path.

Kuiper welcomed the choice visualization, replying merely: “Great chart!” He additionally made clear what he will likely be monitoring from right here. “I will likely be watching this slope together with another metrics to gauge vendor exhaustion,” he stated. For now, he argues that “the optimistic elementary developments and lackluster value motion proceed to diverge.”

At press time, BTC traded at $102,609.