Why Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Tech Stock — Not Digital Gold
Positive inner elements similar to ETFs and DATs fail to totally clarify why capital has continued to circulation out of the market since mid-last yr. The correlation between Bitcoin and US software program shares affords a new perspective.
Recent information highlights how non-public credit score has come to dominate the crypto market.
A Strong Correlation Between Bitcoin And US Software Stocks
According to a Grayscale report, current Bitcoin worth actions have carefully tracked high-growth software program shares. This habits exhibits that BTC is buying and selling extra like a development asset than “digital gold.”
Grayscale’s chart exhibits tight synchronization between US software program shares and Bitcoin from early 2024 to the current. This correlation implies that the identical underlying forces have pushed each markets over the previous two years.
“The undeniable fact that Bitcoin moved in lockstep with software program shares through the newest sell-off suggests the drawdown doubtless had extra to do with broad derisking of growth-oriented portfolios reasonably than issues distinctive to crypto,” Grayscale stated.
Identifying this shared driver helps clarify the current crypto downturn and helps a clearer evaluation of restoration potential.
Grayscale attributes promoting stress primarily to US buyers. This pattern seems in Bitcoin buying and selling at a low cost on Coinbase in contrast with Binance.
In addition, US-listed Bitcoin ETPs have recorded web outflows of roughly $318 million since early February. These outflows have added additional stress to costs.
Why non-public credit score sits on the core of the problem
Other experiences level to a deeper trigger. The $3 trillion private credit trade now faces new dangers pushed by AI improvement.
Private credit refers to non-bank lending. Large funds similar to Blue Owl (OWL), Ares (ARES), Apollo (APO), KKR, and TPG usually handle these loans.
These funds lend to non-public firms or capital-intensive companies, usually at greater rates of interest than banks. Software represents a vital share of those loans. PitchBook information exhibits that software program accounts for about 17% of BDC investments by deal count, second solely to business companies.
Data additionally signifies that the correlation between software program shares and Bitcoin has endured for greater than 5 years. This sample will not be new. It helps the view that personal credit score flows have materially influenced the crypto market. Funds seem to deal with Bitcoin and altcoins as in the event that they had been software program firms.
“BTC is behaving like a high beta tech asset, pushed by liquidity, development expectations, and valuation cycles inside the software program market. This is how sensible capital really sees Bitcoin. That additionally means the AI sector has direct factors of battle with Bitcoin, one thing only a few are speaking about,” commented Joao Wedson, founding father of Alphractal.
Concerns have intensified round AI. Models similar to Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and automatic coding instruments could change or cut back demand for conventional software program. Investors worry software program firms might lose prospects. Recurring revenues could fall. Loan defaults might comply with.
UBS has warned that personal credit score default charges within the US might surge to as high as 13%.
“It remains to be too early to say when precisely AI disruption performs out at scale, however we consider that the pattern is ready to speed up this yr,” UBS strategists said.
When non-public credit score comes beneath stress, capital situations tighten. They lower new lending, demand early reimbursement, or promote belongings. These actions damage software program inventory efficiency and spill over into the crypto market.
Dan, Head of Research at Coinbureau, a crypto schooling agency, argues that personal credit score stress has been in place since mid-2025. This stress explains why BTC began to decouple from liquidity around that time.
“Bitcoin has a robust correlation to software program shares, however what’s the shared trigger? It’s non-public credit score, which is closely concerned in crypto and software program, and has skilled stress since mid-2025, therefore why BTC decoupled from liquidity in mid-2025,” Dan said.
These analyst views clarify a driver that many investors may have overlooked. This issue has weighed on the crypto market in current months. It additionally highlights a broader threat related to non-public credit score defaults and affords a completely different perspective on how AI advances could negatively have an effect on the crypto market.
The publish Why Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Tech Stock — Not Digital Gold appeared first on BeInCrypto.
