Why Solana’s Seeker (SKR) Now Depends on Bears to Avoid a 17% Price Crash
Seeker’s post-launch momentum has pale quick. After topping close to $0.067, the Seeker worth is now down virtually 70%, buying and selling round $0.024. That drawdown has erased many of the early pleasure. While the token remains to be properly above its launch base, worth motion exhibits consumers stepping apart moderately than defending ranges.
The key query is not upside potential. It is whether or not Seeker can keep away from one other leg decrease. Right now, that consequence not relies upon on bulls. It relies upon on bears.
Momentum And Flow Signals Show Selling Pressure Is Still Dominant
The first warning comes from cash move.
On the 4-hour chart, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has stayed beneath zero since January 24. CMF measures whether or not capital is flowing into or out of an asset utilizing worth and quantity. A destructive studying means cash is leaving, not coming into.
Seeker attempted a CMF restoration on January 26, however failed. Since then, CMF has continued to development decrease, suggesting consumers will not be returning with conviction. Right now, the CMF appears to be breaking down the ascending trendline, which, if confirmed, could possibly be detrimental for the Seeker worth.
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Short-term momentum confirms this weak spot. On the 1-hour chart, Seeker made a marginal greater high between January 26 and 27, however RSI printed a decrease high.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum energy. When worth rises, however RSI weakens, it alerts that purchasing stress is fading. This bearish divergence explains why current bounces failed to prolong.
Together, weakening CMF and RSI counsel the downtrend stress remains to be energetic.
Spot Data Shows No Accumulation as Price Approaches Risk Levels
On-chain information reinforces the bearish setup. Over the previous 24 hours, alternate balances rose 5.31%, lifting whole exchange-held SKR to 467.08 million tokens. That equals roughly 23.6 million SKR shifting onto exchanges.
When tokens transfer onto exchanges, it normally alerts promoting intent. At the identical time, smart-money holdings dropped round 4%, exhibiting no significant dip shopping for and rebound conviction.
In easy phrases, spot demand is lacking. That issues as a result of Seeker is now approaching ranges the place consumers usually step in after correcting virtually 70% from the post-launch highs. Under regular circumstances, bulls would defend this zone. But they aren’t exhibiting up.
Why Derivatives Bears Now Decide Whether Seeker Price Crashes
This is the place the story flips. With spot consumers absent, the one remaining power able to stopping a breakdown is bearish leverage.
A liquidation map exhibits the place leveraged merchants could be compelled to shut positions. Liquidations can create sharp worth strikes, even with out actual demand. Leverage means merchants are borrowing to improve place dimension, which will increase liquidation danger.
On Bitget’s 30-day SKR/USDT perpetual market, there may be roughly $3.06 million briefly leverage, in contrast with about $1.49 million in lengthy leverage. That means bearish positions dominate by greater than 100%.
If the SKR price rebounds towards $0.030, round $1.2 million briefly positions would start to be liquidated. That may set off a brief squeeze, forcing bears to purchase again SKR and pushing the worth greater.
But this distinction is crucial. A brief squeeze shouldn’t be bullish conviction. It is compelled shopping for.
If bears will not be trapped, Seeker dangers sliding by means of $0.019 and triggering the 17% breakdown path. If bears are trapped, their liquidations could be the solely factor that briefly saves the worth. That is why Seeker not relies upon on bulls.
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