Why XRP Price Is Playing Catch-Up Despite Successful ETF Launch: Analyst

After a powerful begin to the 12 months, the XRP worth has struggled to construct a sustained bullish momentum all through 2025. These struggles are highlighted within the altcoin’s downward spiral since hitting the all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.

The launch of the spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the United States was anticipated to supply some aid via elevated demand for the underlying asset’s price. However, the newest on-chain evaluation reveals that the ETFs have failed to scale back the bearish strain on the XRP worth.

XRP Price Could Fall To $1.5 If Exchange Inflows Persist

In a Quicktake put up on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous analyst PelinayPA revealed that the exercise of a selected group of XRP whales has been the key driving pressure behind the regular worth decline. The market pundit offered an ETF angle to this whale exercise over the previous few weeks.

PelinayPA drew insights from the Exchange Inflow – Value Bands chart, which tracks and kinds the quantity of a selected cryptocurrency flowing into centralized exchanges by completely different investor cohorts inside a given interval. Recent knowledge reveals that almost all of inflows are coming from the 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands.

PelinayPA wrote within the Quicktake put up:

After every main influx spike on the chart, worth varieties a decrease high and decrease low construction, clearly displaying that provide is overwhelming demand. This occurs as a result of there isn’t a robust new spot purchaser available in the market. Even although whales aren’t aggressively dumping, the continual improve in obtainable provide retains pushing the worth decrease.

Using the influx depth and worth reactions, the crypto analyst posited that the primary main help zone stands at round $1.82 – $1.87. According to PelinayPA, this area represents an space with substantial historic shopping for exercise that has supplied stability previously.

However, the XRP worth might fall to as little as the $1.50 – $1.60 vary if the alternate inflows from whales proceed to climb. As earlier inferred by the analyst, large transfers to centralized exchanges are sometimes considered as a sign of impending promoting strain.

XRP Whales Offloaded Their Holdings When Spot ETFs Went Live

As seen with its predecessors — Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the same XRP exchange-traded merchandise had been anticipated to create institutional demand, resulting in greater costs for the altcoin. However, the story has been the precise reverse for the XRP worth, which is sort of 50% down from its all-time high.

Market knowledge reveals that the US-based spot XRP ETFs haven’t registered a unfavourable outflow day since their buying and selling debut in mid-November. According to SoSoValue, the exchange-traded funds have a complete web asset of over $1.14 billion.

Interestingly, PelinayPA hypothesized that the explanation behind XRP’s regular decline is that whales began offloading their holdings on exchanges because the ETF expectations heightened. This offered the sell-side liquidity for the retail traders who had been seeking to purchase the ETF launch information.

PelinayPA mentioned that this incidence explains why the XRP worth faces promoting strain every time it approaches the $1.95 degree. The market analyst famous that the alternate inflows would first must dry up if the altcoin is to see a bullish run anytime quickly.

As of this writing, the worth of XRP stands at round $1.90, reflecting an over 3% bounce previously 24 hours.