Will Bitcoin Drop Below $100,000 Soon? 3 Charts Hold the Answer
Bitcoin’s newest correction rattled merchants. BTC value dropped from above $120,800 to almost $102,000 earlier than bouncing again virtually 9% to over $111,000. While altcoins like Ethereum and XRP fell over 13%, Bitcoin’s decline of seven% at press time exhibits it held up a lot better — hinting at underlying energy even amid heavy liquidations.
Still, the large query stays: Can Bitcoin keep above $100,000, or will the value drop lengthen decrease than this key psychological degree quickly? Three charts maintain the reply.
Holders Rise and Veterans Stay Calm Amid The Crash
The first signal of assist comes from on-chain holder habits.
Despite the crash, the whole variety of Bitcoin holders elevated from 56.92 million to 56.98 million since yesterday, displaying that traders had been including publicity as costs dropped. That’s typical of dip-buying conviction, not panic promoting.
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The Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) again this up. This metric tracks the age of cash being moved — briefly, whether or not older or newer holders are (*3*).
When the crash started on October 10, the general SCAB stood round 17,100 BTC, whereas the 180–365–day band (crimson) was close to 9,995 BTC, and the 365–day–2–yr band (blue) was near 2,452 BTC.
As the sell-off unfolded, the general SCAB rose sharply to 23,086 BTC, confirming a spike in spending exercise amongst newer holders.
In distinction, the crimson band eased barely to 9,646 BTC, and the blue band dropped sharply to 535 BTC — clear proof that long-term holders stayed quiet.
This implies that the panic promoting was largely led by newer or mid-term wallets, whereas the veteran holders continued holding. And veterans often maintain on until they anticipate large value drops, like one thing under the $100,000 mark.
When long-term holders keep inactive and the whole holder base grows, it often alerts that robust palms are changing the market’s weak palms. That’s the sort of reset that stabilizes a sentiment-driven drop earlier than the subsequent leg larger.
Bitcoin Price Setup Flips From Bearish to Bullish
Bitcoin’s price action tells a clearer story. The current crash wasn’t purely sentiment-driven — it adopted a technical setup that usually marks turning factors.
The key driver was a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures shopping for and promoting momentum on a scale of 0 to 100.
A divergence kinds when the RSI and value transfer in reverse instructions — for instance, when the value makes a better high however the RSI makes a decrease high. This sample often alerts that momentum is weakening earlier than a reversal.
That’s precisely what occurred between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin made new highs on the chart, however RSI failed to verify them, making a decrease high.
The end result was a pointy 19.1% correction (yesterday), virtually an identical to an earlier divergence-led drop this yr of over 14%. These setups present how strongly Bitcoin reacts to RSI alerts.
Now, the sample has flipped. Between September 25 and October 11, a bullish divergence appeared — value made a decrease low whereas RSI made a better low. This means that promoting strain is shedding energy, and momentum could also be quietly constructing for a rebound.
At press time, Bitcoin trades close to $111,600, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci degree ($111,400). A every day shut above this degree may affirm renewed energy towards $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
The invalidation level sits under $109,100, with draw back publicity restricted to $106,400 and $101,900, making a drop under $100,000 unlikely in the brief time period. Only a every day candle shut beneath $101,900 can push the Bitcoin value beneath $100,000.
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