Will Trump Pardon Sam Bankman-Fried? Polymarket Odds Surge as Traders React to CZ’s Release
Speculation is heating up in crypto circles as betting markets Polymarket surged on the likelihood that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) may obtain a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.
Following Trump’s shock pardon of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, odds on prediction platform Polymarket for an SBF pardon skyrocketed from 5.6% to over 12% inside 12 hours, with whole wagers surpassing $66,339 in Volume.
Polymarket Bets on SBF Pardon Double After Trump’s CZ Clemency
A Polymarket market monitoring whether or not Bankman-Fried can be launched from custody in 2025 has seen heightened exercise, spiking from 4.3% to 15% earlier than stabilizing round 12%. The renewed curiosity displays rising curiosity over whether or not Trump’s pro-crypto stance may lengthen to different high-profile figures within the trade.
Bankman-Fried, at present serving a 25-year jail sentence for fraud and conspiracy, is interesting his conviction, however analysts recommend no ruling is probably going earlier than the top of the 12 months. That makes a presidential pardon his solely life like path to early launch.
Trump’s CZ Pardon Fuels Comparisons, and Controversy
The surge in betting odds got here shortly after Trump pardoned CZ, who had served 4 months for Anti-Money Laundering violations. Trump claimed Zhao was “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that his actions have been “not even a criminal offense.”
Crypto analysts have been fast to evaluate CZ’s comparatively minor compliance breaches to Bankman-Fried’s sweeping fraud case, which concerned misappropriating billions in buyer deposits. “CZ’s wrongdoing was compliance-related and nowhere close to the dimensions of SBF’s,” mentioned crypto lawyer Sasha Hodder.
Similarly, legal professional Jake Chervinsky mentioned he could be “really shocked” if Trump granted Bankman-Fried clemency, citing his function as a “Democratic mega-donor” and the political optics surrounding FTX’s collapse.
Political Ties Could Make or Break SBF’s Pardon Hopes
Reports recommend that SBF and his household are quietly lobbying for leniency, along with his mother and father reaching out to figures shut to Trump. He has additionally made appearances on conservative media platforms, making an attempt to recast himself as a sufferer of political bias.
However, in contrast to CZ, who has shut ties to Trump’s circle by way of the World Liberty Financial crypto enterprise, Bankman-Fried lacks direct political connections. Experts consider that makes his probabilities of a pardon slim regardless of rising Polymarket odds.
Nonetheless, the renewed hypothesis exhibits how Trump’s pro-crypto gestures are molding the narrative round justice and energy in digital finance.
Cover picture from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
