XRP Price Flashes a Potential Bottom? Yet History Warns Against Early Optimism
XRP worth has began displaying early indicators of stabilization after a sharp sell-off over the previous 24 hours. The token not too long ago broke down from its long-term falling channel and briefly slipped beneath its realized worth, a degree that displays the typical price of all circulating cash. After dropping towards $1.11, XRP has rebounded towards the $1.30 space.
On the floor, this appears to be like like a robust bounce. In previous cycles, comparable circumstances have appeared near main turning factors. However, historic knowledge reveals that XRP typically spends lengthy durations consolidating round these ranges earlier than a true restoration begins. Current on-chain and technical indicators recommend that whereas promoting strain is rising, the market might not have absolutely reset but.
Breakdown From the Falling Channel Pushes XRP Into a High-Risk Zone
XRP’s decline accelerated between February 4 and February 6, when the value broke decisively beneath its falling channel. This channel had guided worth decrease since mid-2025, forming a clear sample of decrease highs and decrease lows.
After dropping the decrease trendline assist, XRP slid towards its projected draw back zone close to $0.93 and briefly touched $1.11. Although worth has bounced since then, the broader construction stays weak.
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Similar breakdowns in previous cycles have hardly ever marked instant bottoms and instant recoveries.
Realized Price History Shows Why This “Bottom Zone” Can Last for Years
In mid-2022, XRP misplaced main assist, the realized worth line, and entered a extended bearish part. After that breakdown, the value continued drifting decrease and sideways for greater than two years earlier than the late-2024 rally started.
This sample reveals that giant structural breaks often result in lengthy stabilization phases, not on the spot reversals. The present rebound towards $1.30 has not but modified that sample.
During the current sell-off, XRP briefly fell beneath its realized worth, which at present stands close to $1.47. Realized worth represents the typical buy price of all circulating tokens. When the market worth trades beneath this degree, most holders are sitting at a loss.
This situation typically marks durations of monetary stress, however not essentially last bottoms.
A transparent instance comes from 2022.
In June 2022, XRP traded close to $0.31 whereas its realized worth was near $0.56. That represented a decline of practically 46% beneath the realized worth. Despite this deep low cost, XRP didn’t begin a bull market. Instead, it entered a extended bear part.
From mid-2022 by way of November 2024, XRP repeatedly traded near its realized worth, typically closing simply above or beneath it. This “hugging the road” part lasted greater than two years. Only after this prolonged interval of consolidation did the most important rally towards $3.54 start.
Compared to that cycle, right now’s scenario appears to be like milder.
Current worth close to $1.21–$1.30 is just about 18% to 25% beneath the $1.47 realized worth. In 2022, the low cost was nearly double that. This means that stress is constructing, however full long-term capitulation has possible not occurred but.
Long-Term Holder Behavior Supports The ‘Realized Price’ Angle
Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, at present sits close to -0.19. This reveals that many long-term XRP holders at the moment are at a loss. However, throughout main cycle bottoms, this metric has traditionally fallen deeper, even to round -0.31 (in early 2023), earlier than stabilizing.
So whereas holders are below strain, previous cycles recommend this part should have room to develop.
At the identical time, spent coin exercise has surged. Since February 4, the spent cash age band metric, showcasing distribution-linked coin exercise, has risen from about 79 million to greater than 198 million, a 150% surge. This signifies that beforehand inactive cash are shifting, typically towards exchanges. In robust bottoming phases, this metric often declines as promoting dries up. The present spike, seen even after the value crash, suggests distribution continues to be ongoing.
The same surge in early February was adopted by one other leg down, reinforcing that repositioning isn’t completed.
Together, realized worth historical past, NUPL, and rising coin motion present that XRP is in a stress zone, not but in a confirmed accumulation part.
XRP Price Structure Shows Why $0.93 Remains the Key Test
All of those on-chain indicators feed again into the value construction. XRP remains below its damaged channel and beneath the realized worth. This retains draw back dangers elevated.
The subsequent main assist sits close to $0.93. This degree aligns with channel projections and Fibonacci retracement zones, making it a important space the place patrons might try to defend the value.
If $0.93 fails, the following main draw back zone seems close to $0.52, which served as a long-term base throughout the 2022–2023 bear market.
On the upside, the XRP worth should first reclaim $1.47 to revive holder confidence. A transfer above $1.69 and $1.97 could be wanted to enhance the medium-term construction.
Until the realized worth is reclaimed whereas NUPL stabilizes and spent-coin exercise stays low for a important interval, all XRP worth bounces are prone to face renewed promoting strain.
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