XRP Smart Money Are Bullish Once Again, Will the Price Echo January’s 30% Rally?

XRP value gained almost 7% over the previous seven days. That makes it the second-best performing prime 10 cryptocurrency after Dogecoin throughout a interval when most main belongings stay muted.

But the in any other case bullish floor hides a battle brewing beneath between two opposing forces on totally different timeframes.

CMF Breakdown Sets Up Head and Shoulders Crash Risk

The 4-hour chart exhibits a head and shoulders sample forming with the neckline close to $1.44. This bearish reversal construction carries roughly 16% crash danger measured from the head’s peak to the neckline. XRP has been ranging since February 17, making an attempt to keep away from the breakdown. The sample itself appears to be like full and able to activate if assist fails.

Between February 15 and February 18, one thing harmful appeared. XRP value trended greater from the lows, making an attempt restoration. During that very same interval, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator trended decrease on the 4-hour chart. CMF measures the relationship between value and quantity to find out if institutional cash is flowing in or out of an asset. Readings above zero point out accumulation. Readings beneath zero present distribution.

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CMF broke beneath the zero line whereas the value bounced.

This divergence suggests establishments could also be promoting into power. CMF can also be approaching a breakdown of its personal descending trendline connecting decrease lows. If CMF breaks the downward trendline with out an instantaneous restoration, it may verify a breakdown of the head-and-shoulders sample. The $1.44 neckline turns into the set off degree for the 16% measured transfer decrease.

Exchange Outflow and Whale Buying Challenge the XRP Price Breakdown Threat

But one thing shifted dramatically on February 17. Exchange web place change measures the 30-day rolling change in provide held in trade wallets. Between February 7 and February 16, this metric stayed constructive. Positive readings imply cash are flowing into exchanges, creating promote stress.

On February 17 the metric flipped violently damaging to -63.84 million XRP. That represents a large outflow from exchanges. This sudden reversal is 6.5 instances bigger than the final outflow recorded on February 6 at -9.82 million XRP. Someone aggressively eliminated cash from exchanges throughout the precise interval when CMF broke down on the 4-hour chart.

Smaller whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP started accumulating on February 17. Their mixed balances elevated from 3.76 billion to three.78 billion XRP. That is an addition of 20 million cash. These whales account for roughly 31% of the whole exchange-specific change. The remaining may very well be sensible cash, retail buyers, or different whale cohorts. Each metric has limitations, however the 20 million whale accumulation confirms this isn’t purely retail exercise.

The timing creates a direct battle. CMF on the 4-hour chart exhibits attainable short-term institutional promoting. Exchange outflows, adopted by whale shopping for, present medium-term accumulation. Both can’t be proper concurrently until totally different teams are appearing on totally different timeframes with reverse convictions.

Smart Money Index Flashes Same Signal That Triggered 30% Rally

The every day chart resolved the battle. The Smart Money Index crossed above its sign line on February 15. This indicator tracks positioning by skilled merchants on longer timeframes.

Crossovers above the sign line generate purchase indicators. The final time this crossover occurred was January 1, 2026. XRP rallied over 30% following that sign.

The present setup mirrors that precise sample. Smart Money positioned on February 15. Whales began accumulating on February 17. Exchange outflows spiked on February 17. All three occasions align, displaying coordinated positioning somewhat than random retail shopping for. The 4-hour CMF breakdown may now be representing short-term profit-taking or repositioning. The every day Smart Money sign represents medium-term bullish conviction.

Critical XRP Price Support Decides Crash or Rally?

XRP value presently trades close to $1.48, with the subsequent key assist at $1.42, per technical projections. Additionally, this degree aligns intently with the $1.44 head and shoulders neckline, mentioned earlier. If this assist breaks the bearish sample prompts instantly. The measured move targets $1.12, which exceeds the preliminary 16% projection and represents extreme technical harm.

If $1.42 holds and Smart Money positioning performs out like January, the first goal sits at $1.91. That represents roughly 30% upside from present ranges, intently matching the earlier rally. Breaking above $1.91 may open the path towards $2.13, adopted by $2.41 on continued momentum.

The battle between timeframes creates the crossroads. While the Short-term technicals level down, the medium-term positioning factors up. Whale accumulation of 20 million XRP and Smart Money precedent of a 30% rally favor the upside situation. But XRP should maintain $1.42 or the crash danger prompts no matter what every day indicators recommend.

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