Zcash Bear Trap Active After 15% Rebound: What’s Next for ZEC Price?
The Zcash worth has accomplished one thing necessary after weeks of weak spot. Since January 19, the ZEC worth has rebounded almost 15%, lifting from the breakdown low close to $336 to round $362. That transfer got here simply days after a confirmed bearish sample break, precisely the type of setup that always traps aggressive sellers.
The construction nonetheless seems dicey on the floor. But underneath it, accumulation has quietly picked up. Now the main focus shifts to 1 stage. Zcash sits roughly 9% beneath a key Fib stage, which additionally places a key EMA line in focus. Whether worth can reclaim that stage could determine if this rebound stays a bounce or turns into one thing bigger, a rally perhaps.
Rebound Puts the 100-Day EMA Back in Focus
The rebound didn’t come out of nowhere.
After the head-and-shoulders breakdown was activated, the Zcash worth briefly dipped towards $336 earlier than consumers stepped in to possibly activate the trap.
Since then, the worth has climbed about 15%, stalling slightly below the 100-day EMA (exponential shifting common). An EMA is a development indicator that offers extra weight to latest costs.
The final time Zcash reclaimed its 100-day EMA, on December 3, the worth went on to rally greater than 70% within the weeks that adopted. That historical past doesn’t assure a repeat, but it surely explains why this stage issues a lot now.
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At the identical time, sellers are nonetheless lively close to resistance. ZEC has struggled to push by means of $386, the place this bounce stalled, exhibiting that offer has not disappeared. This retains the bearish construction technically alive. The query is whether or not the shopping for beneath is powerful sufficient to power a reclaim anyway.
That reply begins with who has been shopping for since January 19.
Whales Accumulate as Dip Buying Strength Builds
On-chain information reveals accumulation the place it normally issues most.
Over the previous seven days, mega whales (high 100 addresses) have elevated their ZEC holdings by roughly 9%, lifting balances to about 42,623 ZEC. That implies a web accumulation of shut to three,500 ZEC through the rebound section.
Standard whale wallets have adopted. Holdings on this cohort rose by about 5%, taking balances to roughly 10,182 ZEC. That equals an extra 480 ZEC accrued over the identical interval.
Combined, whales have added round 4,000 ZEC since January 19. This will not be shopping for at highs. It is an accumulation after a confirmed breakdown, anticipating worth energy. Smart cash, nevertheless, has left fully, hinting at minimal bounce expectations within the close to time period.
Momentum indicators assist that view. Between January 14 and January 24, ZEC’s worth trended decrease, however the Money Flow Index moved increased, making a bullish divergence.
MFI measures shopping for and promoting strain utilizing each worth and quantity, a possible dip shopping for indicator. When worth falls whereas MFI rises, it indicators dip shopping for beneath the floor. That sample usually protects potential downsides.
Derivatives positioning provides one other layer. After the latest transfer, leverage has reset, turning largely balanced. Over the following 30 days on Binance ZEC perpetuals, brief liquidations nonetheless barely outweigh longs at $26.37 million vs. $22 million in longs.
That imbalance means worth doesn’t want a full development reversal to maneuver increased. Even a reasonable push can start forcing brief protecting.
All of those factors level to the identical factor. Accumulation is current.
Zcash Price Levels That Confirm or Kill the Bear Trap
The construction is now easy.
On the draw back, the lure fails if ZEC loses $335-$336 on a each day shut. A transfer again beneath that stage retains the bearish sample lively and reopens the trail towards deeper draw back.
On the upside, the important thing take a look at sits close to $386-$395 (the 0.236 Fib stage), roughly a 9% transfer from present ranges. That zone traces up with the 100-day EMA. A each day shut above it will mirror the December reclaim and materially weaken the bearish construction.
If that reclaim occurs, the following upside zone is available in close to $463, the place prior provide and liquidation clusters sit. A push past that will invalidate the proper shoulder of the head-and-shoulders sample fully. Above $557, the broader bearish thesis breaks down.
Until a type of ranges offers means, the Zcash price stays in a slim determination zone.
The takeaway is simple. ZEC has already rebounded 15%, whales are accumulating into weak spot, and dip shopping for strain is seen. Price now sits simply 9% from the extent that traditionally unlocked a lot bigger strikes.
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