Two Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin Price: More Pain Ahead?
Bitcoin fell under $77,000 after a pointy rejection on the 200-day transferring common, with CryptoQuant warning that the present setup instantly mirrors the 2022 bear market construction.
We break down the analyst information, the on-chain alerts, and the 2 attainable eventualities that might outline the following main transfer.
Why Bitcoin Closely Mirrors the 2022 Bear Market
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s May 2026 rally and rejection now look virtually equivalent to the construction seen again in March 2022. The parallel is direct: Bitcoin staged a comparable 43% rally throughout March 2022 earlier than slamming into the 200-day transferring common and resuming its painful downward development throughout a number of months.
This time, Bitcoin surged about 37% from its April lows. The bounce hit agency resistance close to $82,400 earlier than rapidly reversing towards the $76,000-$77,000 vary throughout current classes.
Julio Moreno, head of analysis at CryptoQuant, emphasised the resemblance in his May 20 report. He defined that the 200-day transferring common has traditionally marked the boundary between relief rallies and bear market continuation.
“In bear markets, the 200-day MA has constantly acted because the boundary between aid rally territory and development resumption, […] the strongest technical affirmation that the bear market stays structurally intact,” Julio Moreno said.
Demand fundamentals add weight to the warning. Speculative demand from perpetual futures slowed sharply close to $82,000, whereas US spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped from net buyers to active net sellers in current days.
On-chain profit-taking metrics additionally flashed acquainted alerts. Unrealized revenue margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the very best since June 2025, carefully matching the degrees seen proper earlier than the March 2022 rejection.
Two Possible Scenarios and Key Levels Ahead
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has fallen back into extremely bearish territory. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium has additionally remained unfavourable since late April, suggesting that U.S. demand was not sturdy sufficient to maintain the rally.
“A optimistic Coinbase Premium is typical in a sustained bull market, making the present scenario a unfavourable value indicator,” Moreno mentioned.
Primary on-chain help sits close to $70,000, aligned with the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price. Deeper helps relaxation on the 200-day MA round $61,400 and the 300-day MA close to $54,500.
Analyst The Scalping Pro outlined two potential paths from right here. A bounce from the $77,000 help zone might carry Bitcoin towards mid-range resistance earlier than one other leg decrease develops:
- BTC bounces from this degree and pushes larger towards the mid-range earlier than one other drop. (Possible, however not his most popular state of affairs. Bear markets often don’t make issues straightforward and infrequently give trapped merchants a clear exit.)
- BTC loses this help and continues decrease, forming a brand new backside earlier than the following actual bull cycle begins. (Most prone to play out.)
A extra bearish breakdown under present ranges might rapidly set off new cycle lows. Longer time period, the 200 to 300 transferring common zone might mark a generational backside if the downtrend totally performs out throughout coming months.
Sentiment confirms the cautious backdrop. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index hovers at 29, firmly inside worry territory, a psychological setup that usually amplifies volatility and draw back reactions throughout the broader market.
No two cycles match completely, however the information factors to clear warning. Investors ought to watch ETF flows, on-chain demand, and the 200-day common carefully whereas preserving danger administration firmly on the heart of each choice.
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The publish Two Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin Price: More Pain Ahead? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
