Prediction Markets Top $11B in Contract Volume as Sports, Combos Drive Kalshi Growth
Prediction markets had one other robust week from Aug. 24-30, with exercise led by Kalshi on sports activities and continued curiosity in macroeconomic and esports markets on Polymarket Global.
Combined contract quantity throughout Kalshi and Polymarket Global reached $11.26 billion, up 9.3% week over week from $10.30 billion the earlier week. The two platforms generated $3.40 billion in mixed quantity, a modest 0.5% enhance.
The variety of accomplished trades moved in the wrong way, falling 2.9% to 75.21 million.
Kalshi was accountable for many of the week’s progress. The platform crossed $10 billion in weekly contract quantity for the primary time in August, recording $10.17 billion in contract quantity, up 12.2% WoW. It additionally generated $2.83 billion in quantity, up 3.3%.
That gave Kalshi 90.3% of mixed contract quantity throughout the 2 platforms.
Polymarket Global, in the meantime, recorded $1.09 billion in contract quantity, down 11.9% week over week, and $561.91 million in quantity, down 11.4%.
Polymarket US recorded $742.08 million in contract quantity from Aug. 24-29. Aug. 30 information was nonetheless pending from the platform’s official Daily Market Reports.
Weekly contract quantity reaches $11.26 billion
| Metric | Kalshi | Polymarket Global | Polymarket US | Combined (Okay + PMG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract Volume | $10,169,908,020 +12.2% WoW |
$1,086,735,664 -11.9% WoW |
$742,080,305* Partial 6/7 experiences |
$11,256,643,684 +9.3% WoW |
| Execution USD Volume | $2,834,314,916 +3.3% WoW |
$561,911,830 -11.4% WoW |
Unavailable | $3,396,226,746 +0.5% WoW |
| Total Transactions | 63,369,113 -1.2% WoW |
11,853,087 -11.3% WoW |
Unavailable | 75,222,200 -2.9% WoW |
| Volume Share | 90.3% +2.3 pts WoW |
9.7% -2.3 pts WoW |
Excluded | 100.0% |
| Open Interest (Snapshot) | 787,106,260 | 230,217,704 | 117,037,747 | Not additive |
*Polymarket US contract quantity displays partial 6/7 official Daily Market Reports (August 24–29; August 30 pending) and is excluded from mixed totals on account of metric definition variations.
Kalshi accounts for 88.6% of $3.07 billion in sports activities quantity
| Category | Kalshi | Polymarket Global | Combined (Okay + PMG) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other / Uncategorized | $5,344,799,136 92.4% share |
$440,397,837 7.6% share |
$5,785,196,973 |
| Sports | $2,724,145,859 88.6% share |
$348,841,186 11.4% share |
$3,072,987,046 |
| Crypto | $1,859,135,321 89.9% share |
$208,348,981 10.1% share |
$2,067,484,302 |
| Economics / Finance | $178,584,624 85.7% share |
$29,786,203 14.3% share |
$208,370,827 |
| Politics | $58,991,339 52.4% share |
$53,594,570 47.6% share |
$112,585,910 |
| Culture / Entertainment | $4,251,740 42.4% share |
$5,766,886 57.6% share |
$10,018,627 |
Kalshi: PGA Tour Championship, combos, and soccer is again
Kalshi’s record-setting week was pushed primarily by sports activities markets and more and more standard multi-leg structured merchandise.
- TOUR Championship Winner: The PGA TOUR Championship winner market was the one largest market throughout the platforms this week. It settled after producing $91.19 million in contract quantity.
- Multi-leg combo quantity: Combo markets had been one other main supply of exercise for Kalshi. A multi-game MLB combo involving Miami, Detroit, Washington, Texas, Los Angeles (Angels) and Chicago (Cubs) generated $36.80 million in contract quantity. Newly listed combos overlaying Mexican Liga MX soccer, MLB matchups, and European soccer additionally carried out nicely, occupying 4 of Kalshi’s high 10 market slots. Overall, Kalshi’s combo quantity elevated 14.2% week over week to $1.29 billion in contract quantity.
- NFL preseason surge: The return of soccer drove extra trading across NFL markets. The matchup between Seattle and Tennessee generated $20.15 million in contract quantity, whereas the Rams vs. the Chargers reached $17.63 million in contract quantity.
- College soccer markets noticed huge motion too. Memphis vs. UNLV drew $17.78 million in contract quantity, whereas North Carolina vs. TCU attracted $17.67 million in contract quantity.
- Political markets had been quieter by comparability, however Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market nonetheless grew 129.3% week over week to $14.93 million in contract quantity amid a broader shakeup in the 2028 Democratic field.
Polymarket Global: Fed price determination, Brazilian election
Polymarket Global had a noticeably totally different mixture of exercise, with macroeconomic markets and aggressive gaming standing out.
- September Fed decision: The platform’s high market was “Fed Decision in September?”, which generated $19.57 million in contract quantity, up 33.9% week over week.
- Esports exercise: A Counter-Strike match between Team Falcons and Lynn Vision at BLAST Open Porto generated $10.97 million in contract quantity. League of Legends matches had been additionally closely represented, accounting for 5 of the platform’s high 10 markets. KT Rolster vs. HANJIN BRION led that group with $8.49 million in contract quantity. T1 vs. BNK FEARX generated one other $8.33 million in contract quantity, whereas Top Esports vs. LGD Gaming reached $7.82 million in contract quantity.
- Crypto and politics: Crypto remained one other important supply of exercise. The “What value will Bitcoin hit in August?” market generated $9.80 million in contract quantity, though that was down 10.4% week over week.
- Brazil’s presidential election market moved in the wrong way, rising 22.8% to $8.65 million in contract quantity.
Polymarket US: MLB, MLB, and extra MLB
Trading on Polymarket US by Aug. 29 was concentrated primarily in particular person MLB video games, together with NFL preseason markets.
The largest market was Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres on Aug. 25, which generated $5.99 million in contract quantity.
Two Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins markets adopted carefully behind, with the Aug. 24 sport producing $4.87 million in contract quantity and the Aug. 25 matchup producing one other $4.39 million in contract quantity.
Category breakdown
- Sports: Sports generated greater than $3.07 billion in contract quantity throughout Kalshi and Polymarket Global. Kalshi accounted for 88.6% of that quantity, with $2.72 billion in contract quantity, though its sports activities quantity fell 3.8% week over week. Polymarket Global reached $348.84 million, up 29.6%.
- Crypto: Kalshi additionally dominated crypto, producing $1.86 billion in contract quantity, representing an 89.9% share. Polymarket Global recorded $208.35 million in crypto contract quantity, down 11.1%. Polymarket US added one other $145.29 million in contract quantity.
- Economics and finance: Economic markets had been among the many fastest-growing classes on each main platforms. Kalshi’s quantity elevated 35.0% to $178.58 million in contract quantity, whereas Polymarket Global grew 25.6% to $29.79 million in contract quantity. The beneficial properties got here as merchants more and more centered on upcoming Federal Reserve coverage selections.
- Politics: Political markets noticed a pullback on each platforms. Kalshi’s political quantity declined 28.9% to $58.99 million in contract quantity, whereas Polymarket Global fell 26.6% to $53.59 million in contract quantity. Kalshi held a 52.4% share of the mixed class.
- Culture and leisure: Culture markets posted robust share beneficial properties regardless of remaining comparatively small. Kalshi quantity elevated 34.9% to $4.25 million in contract quantity, whereas Polymarket Global rose 28.2% to $5.77 million in contract quantity. Polymarket Global held a uncommon majority in the class, accounting for 57.6% of mixed quantity.
Growth of 25% in 6 weeks
Weekly quantity throughout Kalshi and Polymarket Global elevated from $9.00 billion for the week ending July 26 to $11.26 billion for the week ending Aug. 30.
That’s a 25.1% enhance in simply six weeks.
Kalshi’s share additionally steadily elevated over the interval:
- July 26: 87.6% — $7.88B Kalshi vs. $1.12B Polymarket Global
- Aug. 2: 88.3% — $8.42B vs. $1.11B
- Aug. 9: 88.9% — $8.07B vs. $1.01B
- Aug. 16: 88.7% — $8.67B vs. $1.11B
- Aug. 23: 88.0% — $9.06B vs. $1.23B
- Aug. 30: 90.3% — $10.17B vs. $1.09B
The newest week marked Kalshi’s strongest share of the six-week interval and the primary time it surpassed 90%.
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