Kalshi Smashes $983M in NFL Week 1 and Ignites NFL Prediction Markets
The NFL’s first full regular-season slate added not less than $961.29 million in tracked prediction market quantity in one week.
Tracked NFL quantity reached not less than $1.034 billion from Sept. 7-13, up from $72.71 million in DeFi Rate’s previous weekly volume report. Kalshi carried the surge with $983.18 million, together with $537.48 million in direct NFL contracts and $445.70 million in pure-NFL combos.
The enhance prolonged properly past the standalone home windows. Although 49ers-Rams and Patriots-Seahawks led the rankings, the opposite 14 video games generated one other $315.23 million throughout the tracked venues. Kalshi and Polymarket Global recorded practically 4 million trades throughout the total board, averaging 131 contracts per transaction.
The opening-week breadth provided the primary regular-season check of DeFi Rate’s projection that NFL prediction-market volume could reach $57 billion this season. NFL contracts represented 30.1% of Kalshi’s weekly sports activities quantity, in contrast with 4.0% at Polymarket Global. The mixed NFL whole stays a decrease certain as a result of Polymarket US had not posted its Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 every day stories when DeFi Rate collected the information.
NFL quantity accelerated throughout all three tracked venues
Polymarket Global reported $27.62 million in weekly NFL contract quantity, up 4,399% from $614,028.58. Polymarket US had already reached $23.20 million on 5 reporting days, 1,760% above the prior full week’s $1.25 million.
| Venue | Aug. 31-Sept. 6 | Sept. 7-13 | Increase | WoW | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $70.85M | $983.18M | $912.33M | 1,288% | Complete |
| Polymarket Global | $614.03K | $27.62M | $27.01M | 4,399% | Complete |
| Polymarket US | $1.25M | $23.20M | $21.95M | 1,760% | Partial: 5 every day stories |
| Tracked whole | $72.71M | At least $1.034B | At least $961.29M | At least 1,322% | Partial resulting from Polymarket US |
The end result extends the surge first seen in Patriots-Seahawks trading. That opener produced two of the week’s largest particular person contracts on Kalshi, adopted by the 49ers-Rams moneyline markets.
Pure-NFL combos lifted Kalshi quantity to $983 million
Week 1 sport markets and game-specific props generated $495.92 million on Kalshi, up from $3.56 million in the prior week. That class represented 92.3% of direct NFL quantity, whereas different direct NFL contracts contributed $41.55 million.
Pure-NFL combo contracts added one other $445.70 million, up from $52.25 million. Together, direct NFL contracts and pure-NFL combos produced $983.18 million—a rise of $912.33 million, or 1,288%, week over week.
| Kalshi NFL phase | Aug. 31-Sept. 6 | Sept. 7-13 | WoW | Current share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 video games and sport props | $3.56M | $495.92M | 13,817% | 50.4% |
| Other direct NFL contracts | $15.03M | $41.55M | 176% | 4.2% |
| Direct NFL subtotal | $18.60M | $537.48M | 2,790% | 54.7% |
| Pure-NFL combo contracts | $52.25M | $445.70M | 753% | 45.3% |
| Total NFL | $70.85M | $983.18M | 1,288% | 100% |
Back-to-back $100 million video games set the tempo
The Week 1 surge started with Patriots-Seahawks, which generated not less than $111.49 million throughout the tracked venues and put $103.69 million via Kalshi. The subsequent night time confirmed that opening-game demand was not an remoted spike. 49ers-Rams moved forward with not less than $117.69 million general, together with $95.63 million on Kalshi.
Trading then unfold throughout the remainder of the schedule as a substitute of fading after the 2 prime-time video games. Kalshi and Polymarket Global recorded 3,989,521 trades and $522.79 million in contract quantity throughout the total 16-game board, with a mean of 131.0 contracts per transaction.
Week 1 Volume and Transaction Growth
| Time (ET) | Kalshi Volume | Kalshi Transactions |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8 8 PM | 113.8K | 2.1K |
| Sep 8 9 PM | 127.0K | 2.0K |
| Sep 8 10 PM | 289.5K | 2.0K |
| Sep 8 11 PM | 213.1K | 2.1K |
| Sep 9 12 AM | 437.3K | 2.2K |
| Sep 9 1 AM | 180.6K | 1.8K |
| Sep 9 2 AM | 88.2K | 1.2K |
| Sep 9 3 AM | 376.3K | 1.3K |
| Sep 9 4 AM | 72.9K | 883 |
| Sep 9 5 AM | 52.5K | 803 |
| Sep 9 6 AM | 85.1K | 1.0K |
| Sep 9 7 AM | 181.0K | 2.1K |
| Sep 9 8 AM | 253.8K | 2.8K |
| Sep 9 9 AM | 334.7K | 4.3K |
| Sep 9 10 AM | 525.4K | 5.7K |
| Sep 9 11 AM | 1.0M | 6.5K |
| Sep 9 12 PM | 705.6K | 8.0K |
| Sep 9 1 PM | 1.2M | 7.9K |
| Sep 9 2 PM | 811.8K | 8.5K |
| Sep 9 3 PM | 970.0K | 10.0K |
| Sep 9 4 PM | 1.3M | 12.7K |
| Sep 9 5 PM | 2.1M | 18.8K |
| Sep 9 6 PM | 3.4M | 27.6K |
| Sep 9 7 PM | 7.1M | 49.9K |
(*1*)
NFL made up 30.1% of Kalshi sports activities quantity
Kalshi generated $3.26 billion in sports activities contract quantity through the week and $12.98 billion throughout all markets in DeFi Rate’s prediction-market volume tracker. Direct NFL contracts plus pure-NFL combos represented 30.1% of Kalshi sports activities quantity and 7.6% of its whole market quantity.
Polymarket Global recorded $695.21 million in sports activities quantity and $1.12 billion throughout all markets. Its $27.62 million in NFL buying and selling represented 4.0% of sports activities quantity and 2.5% of whole quantity.
| Venue | NFL quantity | Sports quantity | NFL share of sports activities | Total quantity | NFL share of whole |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $983.18M | $3.26B | 30.1% | $12.98B | 7.6% |
| Polymarket Global | $27.62M | $695.21M | 4.0% | $1.12B | 2.5% |
Kalshi’s whole consists of solely combo contracts whose construction was full and whose resolved legs had been all NFL-related. Mixed-category combos, unresolved combos, Netflix ticker false positives, school soccer, CFL and Olympic flag-football markets had been excluded; direct legs and combo contracts had been counted as soon as every as separate supplier markets.
NFL quantity throughout all matchups
The desk recreates the full-team rating used in the sooner game-volume article. It consists of each Week 1 matchup and ranks the video games by tracked weekly contract quantity throughout the three venues.
| # | Game | Date | Kalshi | Poly Global | Poly US* | Total* | Trades** | Avg. dimension** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers-Rams | Sept. 10 | $95.63M | $5.33M | $16.73M | $117.69M | 751,822 | 134.3 |
| 2 | Patriots-Seahawks | Sept. 9 | $103.69M | $4.87M | $2.93M | $111.49M | 797,141 | 136.2 |
| 3 | Packers-Vikings | Sept. 13 | $39.28M | $2.25M | $130.98K | $41.66M | 349,907 | 118.7 |
| 4 | Commanders-Eagles | Sept. 13 | $39.31M | $1.84M | $80.15K | $41.23M | 230,854 | 178.3 |
| 5 | Bills-Texans | Sept. 13 | $33.82M | $2.32M | $155.08K | $36.30M | 318,989 | 113.3 |
| 6 | Cardinals-Chargers | Sept. 13 | $33.50M | $1.07M | $87.92K | $34.66M | 241,944 | 142.9 |
| 7 | Saints-Lions | Sept. 13 | $29.18M | $1.35M | $144.00K | $30.68M | 204,137 | 149.6 |
| 8 | Cowboys-Giants | Sept. 13 | $22.47M | $1.37M | $385.64K | $24.23M | 173,490 | 137.4 |
| 9 | Falcons-Steelers | Sept. 13 | $17.13M | $1.38M | $112.54K | $18.63M | 166,641 | 111.1 |
| 10 | Dolphins-Raiders | Sept. 13 | $15.86M | $1.28M | $69.95K | $17.21M | 151,521 | 113.1 |
| 11 | Bears-Panthers | Sept. 13 | $15.09M | $793.00K | $158.55K | $16.04M | 171,366 | 92.7 |
| 12 | Buccaneers-Bengals | Sept. 13 | $15.06M | $625.49K | $87.00K | $15.77M | 110,428 | 142.0 |
| 13 | Ravens-Colts | Sept. 13 | $13.57M | $1.55M | $175.03K | $15.30M | 133,308 | 113.4 |
| 14 | Browns-Jaguars | Sept. 13 | $12.64M | $317.92K | $145.71K | $13.10M | 87,321 | 148.4 |
| 15 | Jets-Titans | Sept. 13 | $8.27M | $462.90K | $136.55K | $8.87M | 74,548 | 117.1 |
| 16 | Broncos-Chiefs | Sept. 14 | $1.43M | $35.11K | $100.14K | $1.56M | 26,104 | 56.1 |
* Polymarket US and mixed sport totals are partial as a result of the Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 Daily Market Reports remained unavailable. ** Trade rely and common dimension use Kalshi and Polymarket Global solely as a result of the Polymarket US Daily Market Report doesn’t publish transaction counts. Average dimension is contract quantity divided by commerce rely and is proven in contracts per commerce.
Methodology: DeFi Rate’s evaluation makes use of deduplicated hourly contract-volume and trade-count information for the Monday-Sunday UTC home windows of Aug. 31-Sept. 6 and Sept. 7-13. For every supplier market and hour, the newest worth by computation time was chosen earlier than summing; the Sept. 7-13 window ended at 12:00 a.m. UTC on Sept. 14. Kalshi’s direct NFL whole covers present catalog markets attributable solely to the NFL. Its combo whole covers full combo constructions solely when each resolved leg was NFL-related. Sports and platform totals use DeFi Rate’s class and supplier aggregates for a similar window. Polymarket US makes use of official Daily Market Report Trade Volume; Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 stories had been unavailable at assortment time. Volume measures contracts traded throughout every window, not ending cumulative quantity or greenback notional.
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