Bitcoin ETFs Pull In $1 Billion Monday: Are They Driving This Rally or Chasing It?
Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) absorbed practically $1 billion on Monday, Sept. 21. But BTC had already jumped earlier that day on a brief squeeze, CoinGlass knowledge reveals.
Bitcoin briefly topped $84,000 that day, its first journey to that stage since Jan. 31. The transfer liquidated $262.3 million briefly positions inside an hour.
The Squeeze Came Before the ETF Money
That timing raises an actual query about which transfer really got here first. Spot ETF flows are reported as soon as every day, reflecting trades positioned throughout the US money session, which opens hours after Asian and European markets are already buying and selling.
BTC’s climb got here from the day’s short squeeze, which had already pushed the value increased earlier than any same-day ETF shopping for may happen. That sequence suggests the derivatives market, not ETF demand, equipped the preliminary spark.
Outflows within the Dip, Inflows within the Rally
This wouldn’t be the primary time flows tracked value moderately than main it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted internet outflows on 5 of six buying and selling days between Sept. 9 and Sept. 16, per CoinGlass. BTC was pulling again over that stretch.
Flows didn’t flip sustainably optimistic once more till Sept. 17, when BTC’s price resumed climbing. Cumulative inflows have since topped $56.98 billion, and whole internet belongings throughout all Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $107.86 billion.
Fund focus tells an analogous story. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds 785,640 BTC. That’s greater than 4 occasions the 176,510 BTC held by the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC). That single dominant fund seems extra like capital chasing a development than broad, unbiased conviction shopping for.
Flows May Not Spark the Rally, But They Can Extend It
None of this implies ETF demand is irrelevant. Creating new ETF shares requires market makers to purchase actual BTC. So sustained inflows can nonetheless add actual shopping for strain to a rally already underway, even with out beginning it.
The knowledge obtainable can’t settle whether or not ETFs are able to beginning a rally on their very own. What it reveals for this leg is that the futures market moved first, and Wall Street’s cash confirmed up after.
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