Prediction Markets Hit New $6.2B High as Kalshi Extends Win Streak
Prediction markets notched one other all-time high week, with complete notional quantity throughout main platforms reaching $6.18 billion, up 3.1% from the prior week’s file. Kalshi led the way in which once more with $2.26 billion in quantity (+4.9% WoW), extending its streak to 15 consecutive weeks of outperforming Polymarket on notional quantity.
Top-line numbers for week of Jan. 19-25:
- Kalshi: $2.26B (+4.9% WoW) — 36.5% market share
- Opinion: $1.95B (+0.4% WoW) — 31.5% market share
- Polymarket: $1.76B (−0.1% WoW) — 28.4% market share
- Total market*: $6.18B (+3.1% WoW)
Kalshi vs. Polymarket quantity for the week of Jan. 12-18:
According to our Notional Volume dashboard, Kalshi continues to dominate when it comes to variety of energetic markets and maintains a smaller edge over Polymarket in weekly transactions and open curiosity. Combined, Kalshi and Polymarket hit the $4 billion mark for weekly notional quantity for the primary time final week.
*Note that complete market quantity solely consists of the platforms at present tracked by Dune Data Dashboards.
Top prediction platforms by the numbers (Week of Jan. 19-25)
Polymarket’s primarily flat week marks the primary time since early December the platform hasn’t posted quantity progress, whereas Kalshi continues to drag away on the power of its sports markets (helped alongside by high profile NFL video games). The massive three (Kalshi, Opinion, Polymarket) stay tightly clustered on the prime. Meanwhile, the smaller platforms are exhibiting explosive progress week over week: Limitless surged 201.6% to $57.2M, and ForecastEx greater than doubled with a 133.9% acquire.
Top platforms notional quantity and market share (week of Jan. 19-25):
| Platform | Notional Volume ($) | Market Share | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2,257,916,803 | 36.5% | +4.9% |
| Opinion | $1,950,364,860 | 31.5% | +0.4% |
| Polymarket | $1,756,111,734 | 28.4% | −0.1% |
| predict.enjoyable | $143,956,073 | 2.3% | +26.7% |
| Limitless | $57,245,377 | 0.9% | +201.6% |
| ForecastEx | $12,913,898 | 0.2% | +133.9% |
| Myriad | $3,205,159 | <0.1% | +36.4% |
| Total | $6,181,713,904 | 100% | +3.1% |
Weekly Notional Volume: 4-Week Comparison (Dec. 29 – Jan. 25):
Weekly notional quantity: 4-week comparability
Dec. 29, 2024 – Jan. 25, 2025
| Platform | Dec 29 – Jan 4 | Jan 5–11 | Jan 12–18 | Jan 19–25 | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kalshi
|
$1.98B | $2.01B | $2.15B | $2.26B | +4.9% |
|
Opinion
|
$1.81B | $1.60B | $1.94B | $1.95B | +0.4% |
|
Polymarket
|
$1.45B | $1.50B | $1.76B | $1.76B | -0.1% |
|
predict.enjoyable
|
$71.8M | $108.9M | $113.6M | $144.0M | +26.7% |
|
ForecastEx
|
$68.9M | $32.1M | $31.5M | $12.9M | -59.0% |
|
Limitless
|
$11.2M | $9.0M | $19.0M | $57.2M | +201.7% |
|
Myriad
|
$2.8M | $1.8M | $2.4M | $3.2M | +36.4% |
| Total | $5.39B | $5.26B | $6.02B | $6.18B | +2.7% |
A number of developments that soar out within the knowledge from the final 4 weeks:
- Kalshi has posted 4 consecutive weeks of progress, climbing from $1.98B to $2.26B (+14.1% over the interval).
- Polymarket confirmed sturdy mid-month progress however has flattened out the previous two weeks.
- Limitless is the breakout story, up from $11M to $57M over 4 weeks (+412%).
- ForecastEx is heading in the wrong way, dropping from $69M to $13M (-81%).
- Opinion stays unstable week-to-week however persistently within the $1.6-1.95B vary.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: The rivalry by the numbers
The two dominant platforms proceed to commerce punches, however Kalshi is clearly pulling forward on quantity whereas Polymarket reveals power in different areas.
| Metric | Kalshi | WoW Change | Polymarket | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notional Volume | $2.3B | +6.8% | $1.8B | +2.4% |
| Weekly Transactions | 13,363,139 | +9.9% | 11,611,003 | −5.6% |
| Active Markets | 190,039 | +23.9% | 24,421 | +22.8% |
| Open Interest | $410.5M | +15.3% | $375.7M | +34.9% |
Key takeaways:
- Kalshi now leads on transactions too: For the primary time in current reminiscence, Kalshi overtook Polymarket in weekly transactions (13.4M vs 11.6M). The prior week, Polymarket nonetheless held a slight edge.
- Market share hole widens: Kalshi now instructions 56% of mixed Kalshi/Polymarket quantity, up from roughly 55% the week prior and ~50% in early January.
- Polymarket’s open curiosity surge: Despite primarily flat quantity, Polymarket’s open curiosity jumped 34.9% WoW to $375.7M. This suggests merchants are taking longer-dated positions quite than churning short-term sports activities bets.
- Active markets ratio: Kalshi’s 190K energetic markets vs. Polymarket’s 24K represents a virtually 8:1 ratio, although the overwhelming majority of Kalshi’s non-sports markets stay thinly traded.
NFL playoffs drive one other massive sports activities week
Conference Championship Sunday lived as much as expectations, bringing huge quantity concentrated in two marquee video games. The Rams-Seahawks NFC Championship drew $109 million in buying and selling quantity at Kalshi alone, making it the one highest-volume NFL sport of the playoffs to this point.
The two Conference Championship video games mixed for $188.7 million in quantity, in comparison with $258.8 million unfold throughout 4 Divisional Round video games the weekend prior. That works out to roughly $94M per sport for Conference Championships vs. $65M per sport for Divisional Round — a forty five% soar in per-game quantity as the stakes elevated.
Expect that to develop considerably for the Super Bowl which already has quantity of $145.5M on Kalshi and $693.4M on Polymarket. The NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks are at present settling in as a 67% favourite in Super Bowl odds over the AFC successful New England Patriots.
NFL playoff buying and selling quantity at Kalshi (Divisional and Conference Championship rounds):
NFL playoff prediction market quantity by sport
Kalshi markets, Divisional and Conference Rounds
As the chart above reveals, the Texans-Patriots sport was an outlier with decrease quantity ($24.5M), whereas the Conference Championship finale (Rams-Seahawks), a 31-27 thriller, drew the very best buying and selling exercise at $109M.
Kalshi class breakdown: Sports nonetheless king, however diversification continues
Sports proceed to dominate Kalshi’s class combine at 89.6% of complete quantity, although that share has steadily ticked down from 91.1% three weeks in the past as non-sports classes develop quicker in proportion phrases.
Kalshi quantity by class
Week-over-week comparability, Jan. 12–25, 2025
| Category | Jan 12–18 | Jan 19–25 | WoW Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1,946,157,840 | $2,023,977,725 | +4.0% | 89.6% |
| Crypto | $74,836,416 | $83,315,094 | +11.3% | 3.7% |
| Politics | $46,172,705 | $47,009,461 | +1.8% | 2.1% |
| Mentions | $26,319,007 | $34,606,957 | +31.5% | 1.5% |
| Climate and Weather | $20,218,176 | $30,093,449 | +48.8% | 1.3% |
| Entertainment | $11,809,589 | $15,253,984 | +29.2% | 0.7% |
| Economics | $13,598,319 | $8,607,514 | −36.7% | 0.4% |
| Other | $13,948,864 | $15,052,619 | +7.9% | 0.7% |
| Total | $2,153,060,916 | $2,257,916,803 | +4.9% | 100% |
A number of class developments value noting:
- Climate and Weather jumped 48.8%, possible pushed by winter storm markets as extreme chilly snaps hit a lot of the nation.
- Mentions surged 31.5% resulting from numerous components together with greater quantity of point out market choices mixed with an increase in political point out market reputation. This week’s soar was additionally boosted by elevated NFL playoff-related point out market quantity and the upcoming Fed chair FOMC press convention point out market.
- Economics dropped 36.7%, partially as a result of markets have settled on near-certainty for no rate cut in January forward of this week’s FOMC assembly.
- Crypto continues regular progress at +11.3%, now commanding 3.7% of Kalshi quantity.
What to observe: Super Bowl, platform strikes and potential obstacles
Super Bowl LX (Feb. 9) looms as the following main quantity catalyst. The two-week hole between Conference Championships and the Super Bowl will possible trigger a noticeable dip earlier than the large spike.
March Madness (mid-March) would be the subsequent main sustained quantity driver after the Super Bowl. Expect a relative lull in sports-driven quantity between Feb. 10 and March 15, which may permit non-sports classes like crypto, politics, leisure and point out markets to assert a bigger share of the combo. That stated, Kalshi already has markets masking 14 top-level sports activities classes (and dozens of sub-categories) and continues to deepen its sports offerings, together with ramping up dwell or micro-markets for tennis including to Winter Olympics markets. These extra choices may assist make up for the non permanent main sports activities lull.
Other developments we’re monitoring
Platform strikes:
- Polymarket US stays in restricted rollout; a broader launch may assist the platform claw again market share misplaced to Kalshi’s sports activities dominance.
- We’ll be waiting for whether or not newer entrants like DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics Markets and Gemini, can drive significant liquidity and quantity with a smaller slate of choices within the coming months.
- Robinhood will finally stop contributing liquidity and quantity to Kalshi by itemizing its prediction markets.
News broke final week that Robinhood, in partnership with liquidity supplier Susquehanna International, has completed its planned acquisition of MIAXdx (Miami International Holdings, Inc. Derivatives Exchange). The new acquisition of MIAXdx, already permitted by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), will permit Robinhood to “listing and clear totally collateralized futures, choices on futures, and swaps” which incorporates prediction markets.
Considering upwards of fifty% of Kalshi’s quantity originates from Robinhood customers, the transfer may mark a considerable setback for Kalshi’s notional quantity. However, extra partnerships together with extra distribution channels, together with progress in different classes (particularly politics and elections within the lead-up to the 2026 midterms) ought to assist fill a lot of the hole left by Robinhood’s eventual departure.
Regulatory watch:
Several states are exploring Massachusetts-style legal challenges to Kalshi’s sports activities contracts after an MA court docket just lately dominated towards Kalshi’s sports activities choices. But appeals stay in progress and it may take months earlier than we’ve got a definitive, far-reaching court docket ruling on the matter. An antagonistic ruling in the next court docket may considerably impression quantity if sports activities should be stripped, however we possible not for one more yr or extra.
Meanwhile, the shifting tides in CFTC management may assist shape future regulations for occasion contracts, however strict sports-related restrictions are usually not prone to be included in new Chair Michael Selig’s imaginative and prescient.
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