Prediction Markets Log Third $6B+ Week as Polymarket Surges Without NFL
Prediction markets set one more all-time high this week, they usually did it with no single NFL sport on the schedule. Total notional quantity throughout main platforms hit $6.32 billion for the week ending Feb. 1, up 2.2% from the prior week’s file regardless of this being the Super Bowl bye week.
The proven fact that prediction markets posted a brand new high throughout per week with zero soccer video games is a major sign in regards to the maturation of this business past its sports-driven core.
The larger story this week is the platform shuffle. Polymarket surged 18.2% to $2.08 billion, reclaiming the No. 2 spot from Opinion and narrowing the hole with Kalshi to close parity. Kalshi dipped 2.8% to $2.20 billion, its first week-over-week decline in 5 weeks. Our prediction market volume tracker exhibits Kalshi’s energetic markets proceed rising as Kalshi maintains a marginal lead over Polymarket on weekly transactions and open curiosity.
Considering the significance of sports activities markets (and particularly, NFL) to Kalshi’s quantity, the slight WoW dip was to be anticipated as the absence of NFL video games took a visual chew out of its sports-heavy quantity combine. Meanwhile, decentralized platform Opinion fell 10.6% to $1.74 billion, sliding to 3rd, in keeping with Dune’s latest data.
Overall platform notional quantity (Jan. 26 – Feb. 1)
| Platform | Notional Volume ($) | Market Share | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2,195,101,449 | 34.7% | −2.8% |
| Polymarket | $2,076,580,178 | 32.9% | 18.2% |
| Opinion | $1,743,534,069 | 27.6% | −10.6% |
| predict.enjoyable | $173,909,542 | 2.8% | 20.8% |
| Limitless | $104,228,341 | 1.6% | 82.1% |
| ForecastEx | $10,992,403 | 0.2% | −14.9% |
| Myriad | $8,108,181 | 0.1% | 153.0% |
| Overtime | $5,674,345 | 0.1% | New |
| Total | $6,318,128,509 | 100% | 2.2% |
January in evaluation: A blockbuster month for the business
January’s 4 full weeks (Jan. 5 via Feb. 1) generated roughly $23.8 billion in complete notional quantity throughout tracked platforms, comfortably the largest month on file for prediction markets.
Weekly transactions inform a equally aggressive development story. The business posted 28.4 million transactions this previous week, up from 12.3 million within the first week of December. That’s a 132% enhance over 9 consecutive weeks of development. Kalshi and Polymarket proceed to account for the overwhelming majority of these transactions, with 13.9 million and 13.3 million respectively this previous week.
Weekly transactions (9-week development from Dec. 1 via Feb. 1):
The month-over-month development is hanging. Average weekly transactions in January (26.0 million) got here in roughly 79% larger than the December common (14.5 million). Average weekly notional quantity in January ($5.95 billion) was up about 40% from December’s common ($4.24 billion), which ranged from roughly $4.0 billion in early December to $5.4 billion by the ultimate week of the yr.
5-Week notional quantity comparability (Dec. 29 via Feb. 1):
| Platform | Dec 29–Jan 4 | Jan 5-11 | Jan 12-18 | Jan 19-25 | Jan 26–Feb 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $1,978,665,806 | $2,012,006,557 | $2,153,060,916 | $2,257,916,803 | $2,195,101,449 |
| Polymarket | $1,445,093,136 | $1,503,807,692 | $1,758,081,905 | $1,756,111,734 | $2,076,580,178 |
| Opinion | $1,809,464,856 | $1,597,197,928 | $1,941,759,497 | $1,950,364,860 | $1,743,534,069 |
| predict.enjoyable | $71,754,844 | $108,892,161 | $113,624,631 | $143,956,073 | $173,909,542 |
| Limitless | $11,172,065 | $8,967,549 | $18,976,902 | $57,245,377 | $104,228,341 |
| ForecastEx | $68,937,906 | $32,116,056 | $31,473,041 | $12,913,898 | $10,992,403 |
| Myriad | $2,786,513 | $1,845,727 | $2,350,513 | $3,205,159 | $8,108,181 |
| Overtime | — | — | — | — | $5,674,345 |
| Total | $5,387,875,126 | $5,264,833,670 | $6,019,327,405 | $6,181,713,904 | $6,318,128,509 |
The bye week impact: Sports down, all the pieces else up at Kalshi
With no NFL video games on the calendar, Kalshi’s sports activities quantity dropped 10.2% from $2.02 billion to $1.82 billion, pulling the class’s share of Kalshi quantity from 89.6% to 82.8%. But what’s extra attention-grabbing is what stuffed the hole.
Kalshi class breakdown week over week (Jan. 26-Feb. 1):
| Category | Jan 19-25 Volume | Jan 26 – Feb 1 Volume | WoW Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $2,023,977,725 | $1,818,014,719 | −10.2% | 82.8% |
| Politics | $47,009,461 | $147,566,721 | 214.0% | 6.7% |
| Crypto | $83,315,094 | $120,669,010 | 44.8% | 5.5% |
| Entertainment | $15,253,984 | $29,404,782 | 92.8% | 1.3% |
| Mentions | $34,606,957 | $23,043,088 | −33.4% | 1.0% |
| Climate and Weather | $30,093,449 | $21,558,385 | −28.3% | 1.0% |
| Economics | $8,607,514 | $15,929,229 | 85.1% | 0.7% |
| Other | $15,052,619 | $18,915,515 | 25.7% | 0.9% |
| Total | $2,257,916,803 | $2,195,101,449 | −2.8% | 100% |
Politics greater than tripled, surging from $47 million to $147.6 million (+214%). That’s the best politics quantity we’ve seen on Kalshi because the weeks instantly following the 2024 election. A mix of presidency shutdown markets, Fed Chair hypothesis, and early 2026 midterm positioning are driving the surge.
Crypto jumped 44.8% to $120.7 million, Entertainment practically doubled (+92.8%), and Economics climbed 85.1%. Economics buying and selling is spiking with exercise round March fed decision probabilities as the Fed held charges regular in January, and President Trump introduced his plan to appoint Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair.
The one notable reversal: Mention markets dropped 33.4% and Climate and Weather fell 28.3%, each coming off elevated ranges in current weeks.
Key takeaway: Kalshi’s complete quantity dipped 2.8% on the absence of soccer, however its non-sports classes collectively surged. That’s precisely the type of diversification Kalshi wants if it’s going to maintain its quantity ranges via the gaps within the sports activities calendar.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Gap narrows to close parity
This was Polymarket’s strongest week in months, and it confirmed up throughout the board. The platform’s 18.2% quantity bounce introduced mixed Kalshi/Polymarket quantity to $4.3 billion, with the break up at a near-even 51/49 in Kalshi’s favor — the tightest it’s been since early January. Comparing the 2 platforms’ notional quantity during the last two months clearly exhibits Kalshi pulling away throughout the peak of NFL betting season and Polymarket closing in with NFL off the desk and politics and different classes changing into extra central to total buying and selling curiosity.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket key metrics in contrast (week of Jan. 26 – Feb. 1):
| Metric | Kalshi | WoW | Polymarket | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notional Volume | $2,195,101,449 | −2.8% | $2,076,580,178 | 18.2% |
| Weekly Transactions | 13,931,900 | 4.3% | 13,338,067 | 14.9% |
| Active Markets | 810,658 | 326.6% | 25,085 | 2.7% |
| Open Interest | $417.0M | 1.6% | $369.3M | −1.7% |
Some key head-to-head dynamics:
Polymarket’s transaction depend surged 14.9% to 13.3 million, practically catching Kalshi’s 13.9 million. Last week Kalshi led by 1.75 million transactions; this week that margin shrank to beneath 600,000. With sports activities quantity depressed, Polymarket’s extra diversified class combine (crypto, politics, tradition, geopolitics) is pulling its weight.
Open curiosity tells an attention-grabbing divergence story. Combined open curiosity throughout each platforms jumped to $786.3 million, with Kalshi at $417 million (53%) and Polymarket at $369.3 million (47%). But the trajectories this week went in reverse instructions: Kalshi’s open curiosity ticked up modestly (+1.6%) whereas Polymarket’s dipped barely (-1.7%) after final week’s 34.9% surge. But the general development stays upward for each.
The energetic markets depend continues to be lopsided — Kalshi’s 810,658 vs. Polymarket’s 25,085 — although this displays Kalshi’s granular method to market creation (particular person participant props, game-specific contracts, and many others.) reasonably than a pure measure of platform depth
The rising tide: Limitless, predict.enjoyable and new entrants
The smaller platforms proceed to point out outsized development. Limitless practically doubled once more, up 82.1% to $104.2 million — its first week crossing the $100 million mark and a outstanding rise from simply $11 million 9 weeks in the past. predict.enjoyable climbed 20.8% to $173.9 million. Myriad greater than doubled (+153%) to $8.1 million.
A brand new title additionally appeared on the Dune dashboard this week. Overtime, one other decentralized powered by the Thales Protocol on Ethereum Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism, posted $5.7 million in its first week tracked by Dune.
Meanwhile, ForecastEx continued its sluggish fade, dropping one other 14.9% to $11 million. The Interactive Brokers-backed platform has fallen from $69 million in early December to only $11 million — an 84% decline over 9 weeks.
What to look at: Super Bowl week, shutdown fallout and the trail ahead
Super Bowl LX (Seahawks vs. Patriots, Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium) is about to be the largest single-event quantity catalyst in prediction market historical past. The “Pro Football Champion” market on Kalshi has already exceeded $150 million in quantity, and Polymarket’s Super Bowl markets have cleared $688 million cumulatively. Based on this week’s bye-week baseline and the Conference Championship per-game numbers, the Super Bowl might simply push subsequent week’s complete market quantity properly above $7 billion.
The NFL’s choice to ban prediction market promoting from the Super Bowl broadcast, as confirmed by FOS, is price monitoring, although it appears unlikely to dampen precise buying and selling exercise.
Beyond the Super Bowl, a number of catalysts are in play for February:
- The authorities shutdown that started Jan. 31 has already pushed vital quantity into Kalshi’s political and government-related contracts, and that exercise will doubtless persist till a decision is reached.
- The March 18 FOMC assembly is already producing positioning in rate-cut markets, with prediction markets at the moment pricing a “hawkish maintain” opposite to some financial institution analyst expectations.
- Midterm election markets are starting to construct liquidity, with early 2026 race markets producing rising curiosity throughout each Kalshi and Polymarket.
- SEC-CFTC coordination accelerates. On Jan. 29, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig formally launched “Project Crypto” as a joint initiative to harmonize digital asset oversight, together with aligned definitions and shared surveillance. Selig additionally directed workers to start drafting an occasion contracts rulemaking and withdrew the 2024 proposed ban on political and sports activities contracts.
The larger image heading into February: prediction markets simply posted three consecutive $6B+ weeks, transactions have greater than doubled since early December, and the business powered via a sports-free week with out lacking a beat. Sports will stay the first quantity driver for the foreseeable future, however this week’s knowledge exhibits the non-sports basis is rising quick sufficient to maintain record-level exercise even when the NFL video games cease.
Note: DeFi Rate quantity report knowledge is compiled from a spread of sources together with Dune, Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Gemini APIs.
The submit Prediction Markets Log Third $6B+ Week as Polymarket Surges Without NFL appeared first on DeFi Rate.
