Deadline Set to Resolve Stablecoin Dispute Holding Up Crypto Bill
The White House is popping up the strain on crypto regulation – and this time, it’s setting a deadline. At a closed-door assembly on Monday between crypto corporations, banks, and coverage officers, the White House reportedly advised either side they want to attain a deal on stablecoin yield by the tip of February.
If they’ll’t come to phrases, the broader Clarity Act (the principle US crypto market construction invoice) might any actual probability of passing this 12 months. Prediction markets at present put odds of the invoice passing this 12 months within the mid-50s to low-60s, down from a quick spike of 77% on Sunday night.
That makes stablecoin yield the important thing problem standing between crypto and regulatory readability.
Why stablecoin yield is the sticking level
The assembly introduced collectively Coinbase, Circle, Ripple, Kraken, and main banking teams to handle a single drawback: Should crypto corporations be allowed to supply rewards or curiosity on stablecoin balances?
Banks, after all, are strongly opposed – arguing that yield-bearing stablecoins would pull deposits out of the banking system. One estimate from Standard Chartered suggests as a lot as $500 billion might transfer from financial institution accounts into stablecoins if yield is allowed.
Crypto corporations see it in another way. Coinbase, specifically, has been clear that incomes rewards on stablecoins is crucial for competing globally and retaining customers onshore.
Banking commerce teams stand agency however nonetheless on the desk
Sources described Monday’s assembly as skilled and targeted, however removed from resolved.
After the assembly, 5 main banking commerce teams – the American Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum, and Independent Community Bankers of America – issued a joint statement. They thanked the administration for the “constructive dialog” and pledged to hold engaged on “considerate, efficient coverage round digital belongings.”
Translation: no concessions but.
The banks are holding agency on what they name “closing the loophole” – stopping corporations like Coinbase from providing rewards on stablecoin holdings. Crypto companies say it’s not a loophole in any respect, however a fundamental function of digital belongings.
More conferences are already deliberate. They’re anticipated to be smaller and extra technical, with fewer contributors and a sharper deal with invoice language. With the end-of-February deadline now set, either side have restricted time to transfer.
Regulators are lining up however the clock is ticking
Beyond the February deadline, the Senate Banking Committee will quickly have its fingers full with Kevin Warsh’s affirmation hearings – Trump’s choose to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. That course of might take precedence over crypto laws.
The Clarity Act has already cleared the House and passed the Senate Agriculture Committee on a party-line 12-11 vote. But it nonetheless wants to get by Banking earlier than reaching a full Senate vote. The longer that takes, the tougher the trail turns into.
At the identical time, US regulators seem like they’re coordinating greater than ever. The SEC and CFTC have quietly ended their long-running struggle over who controls what in crypto. They’re now working together to function with shared definitions, coordinated rulemaking, and holding common joint calls.
Early areas of focus embrace tokenized collateral, authorized protections for software program builders, and guidelines for leveraged crypto buying and selling.
Markets are betting on decision
Prediction markets counsel rising confidence that some type of readability is coming.
On Polymarket, the percentages that the Clarity Act will grow to be regulation in 2026 have been sitting across the low-60% vary, whilst crypto costs stay unstable.
On Kalshi, odds of crypto market construction laws turning into regulation this 12 months are hovering within the mid-50s. Markets are additionally pricing 23% and 34% implied odds of the invoice passing earlier than May or June.
Tokenization isn’t ready
Whether the invoice passes or not, tokenization is already scaling. Tokenized equities grew from $32 million to $963 million previously 12 months. Stablecoin funds are additionally increasing quick.
Visa is now settling billions of {dollars} a 12 months using stablecoins, and Mastercard has stated it’s prepared to assist them like another foreign money.
Regulators are aligning, markets are shifting, and the White House has made the deadline public. If the stablecoin yield problem isn’t resolved by the tip of February, crypto regulation might slip once more. If it’s, the Clarity Act lastly has a path ahead.
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