Prediction Markets Cool to $5.3B After Super Bowl Surge as 6-Month Growth Hits 13x
Combined weekly notional quantity throughout high prediction market platforms dropped to $5.3 billion for the total week following the Super Bowl, a modest dip contemplating the present focus of sports activities quantity throughout the trade. Kalshi and Polymarket mixed for $4.3 billion in quantity within the week ending Feb. 15, in accordance to DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker, which aggregates real-time information throughout each platforms. Of that complete, Kalshi accounted for $2.4 billion (56%) and Polymarket $1.9 billion (44%), with complete weekly transactions hitting 37 million (53% on Polymarket and 47% on Kalshi).
It’s the clearest signal but that the Super Bowl buying and selling cycle has wound down and the trade is settling right into a post-football actuality. But the zoomed out image is bullish for prediction market quantity regardless of the way you slice it. Six months in the past, your complete prediction market trade (or not less than the main tracked platforms) did $2 billion in a month. Now it’s doing greater than double that in a single week.
The query isn’t whether or not prediction markets have arrived. It’s what occurs subsequent, and whether or not the sector’s heavy reliance on sports activities can maintain the type of progress that’s turned this from a distinct segment buying and selling ecosystem right into a multi-billion-dollar weekly market.
The Super Bowl peak and the dip that adopted
Before moving into the pullback, it’s price underscoring simply how huge the Super Bowl was for prediction markets. On Feb. 8 alone (the day of the Big Game), tracked platforms processed $1.34 billion in notional quantity throughout 7.5 million transactions. Kalshi accounted for $871.5 million of that each day complete (64.9%), with Polymarket including $311.9 million. To put that single day in perspective: your complete prediction market trade did $2 billion for the total month of August 2025. Super Bowl Sunday did properly over half of that in 24 hours.
| Platform | Super Bowl day quantity (Feb 8) | Daily transactions |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $871.5M | 5,139,407 |
| Polymarket | $311.9M | 2,275,711 |
| Opinion | $91.9M | 31,459 |
| predict.enjoyable | $58.8M | 30,633 |
| Limitless | $8.7M | 21,308 |
| Overtime.io | $983K | 3,171 |
| Myriad | $97K | 9,449 |
| Total | $1.34B | 7,511,138 |
That type of spike was by no means going to maintain, not less than within the short-term. As anticipated, category-level quantity for the next full week dropped off significantly. On Kalshi, leisure class quantity, which captured the majority of Super Bowl culture and novelty prop markets, cratered from $207.5 million (week of Feb. 2) to $22.7 million (week of Feb. 9), an 89% WoW drop. Sports quantity on Kalshi dipped from $2.19 billion to $1.996 billion, whereas Polymarket’s sports activities class fell from $756.6 million to $688.7 million.
This tracks with what we flagged in last week’s Super Bowl volume breakdown: the Super Bowl is the only largest quantity occasion on the sports activities betting and now prediction market calendar; The week after all the time brings a correction.
The Feb. 16 snapshot from our tracker exhibits the two-platform complete (Kalshi + Polymarket) settling at $4.3 billion for the newest accomplished week.
Open curiosity stays wholesome at $754.5 million, primarily a coin flip between Kalshi ($387.4 million, 51%) and Polymarket ($367.1 million, 49%). Active markets proceed to closely favor Kalshi at 149,575 versus Polymarket’s 28,318, a 5.3x benefit in market availability. However, as we commonly observe, Kalshi’s contract breadth additionally leads to a variety of skinny markets.
Platform breakdown: Who gained, who gave again
Here’s the total platform-by-platform comparability for the weeks ending Feb. 8 (Super Bowl week) and Feb. 15, sourced from Dune Data Dashboards:
| Platform | Feb 2-8 quantity | Feb 9-15 quantity | WoW change | Mkt share (2/9-15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2.80B | $2.43B | −13.2% | 45.5% |
| Polymarket | $1.92B | $1.88B | −1.9% | 35.2% |
| Opinion | $1.24B | $709.7M | −42.8% | 13.3% |
| predict.enjoyable | $215.7M | $184.7M | −14.4% | 3.5% |
| Limitless | $68.9M | $109.4M | +58.7% | 2.1% |
| Myriad | $11.4M | $17.0M | +48.8% | 0.3% |
| ForecastEx | $5.8M | — | — | — |
| Overtime.io | $4.7M | $3.9M | −17.2% | 0.1% |
| Total | $6.26B | $5.33B | −14.8% | 100% |
The headline decline of almost 15%, from $6.26 billion to $5.33 billion, was not distributed evenly, and the platform-level divergence tells a extra fascinating story than the top-line quantity.
Polymarket was essentially the most resilient of the main platforms. Its $1.88 billion marked only a 1.9% week-over-week decline, the smallest pullback among the many high three by a large margin. Polymarket’s market share jumped from 30.6% to 35.2% as a consequence — its highest within the all-platform breakdown in weeks. The platform held floor as a result of its Crypto class ($589.1 million) surged 8.9% and its Politics quantity ($387.7 million) barely moved, absorbing the post-Super Bowl dip in Sports.
Kalshi took a extra substantial hit, dropping $368 million to $2.43 billion — a 13.2% decline pushed nearly completely by the Super Bowl unwind in leisure and sports activities. Even so, Kalshi maintained its place as the quantity chief at 45.5% market share, really ticking up from 44.7% as Opinion’s drop was far steeper. A $2.43 billion week nonetheless ranks among the many platform’s high 5 ever.
Opinion’s pullback was the story of the week. The onchain alternate shed 42.8% of its quantity, falling from $1.24 billion to $709.7 million — the biggest relative decline of any tracked platform by a major margin. Its market share contracted from 19.8% to 13.3%. We’ve famous Opinion’s outsized volatility in prior experiences, and this week bolstered the sample: the platform swings tougher in each instructions than its bigger rivals. Whether this displays a extra event-driven person base, thinner market depth, or structural variations in how quantity is generated stays an open query. But at $709.7 million, Opinion continues to be comfortably the third-largest alternate within the house, not less than by way of quantity.
Limitless was the week’s largest gainer on a proportion foundation, surging 58.7% from $68.9 million to $109.4 million and crossing the $100 million weekly threshold for what seems to be the primary time. Myriad additionally posted a robust week, up 48.8% to $17 million. Both stay small in absolute phrases, however the counter-cyclical progress is notable: whereas the highest three all declined, two of the smallest exchanges posted their greatest weeks but. ForecastEx dropped out of the Feb. 9 information completely after posting simply $5.8 million the prior week.
Kalshi and Polymarket collectively accounted for 80.8% of all tracked quantity, up from 75.3% the prior week. The hole between the 2 leaders and the remainder of the sector widened as Opinion pulled again, reinforcing that the efficient market stays a two-platform race for many sensible functions.
On the person facet, Polymarket continues to dominate amongst platforms reporting weekly lively customers (Kalshi is excluded from Dune’s person monitoring). For the week of Feb. 9, Polymarket logged 309,991 weekly customers, 85.5% of the 362,704 complete tracked throughout non-Kalshi platforms. Limitless (26,445) and Opinion (18,098) are the one different exchanges clearing 10,000 weekly customers, with predict.enjoyable (6,543) rounding out the significant bases.
That person focus underscores a structural distinction. Opinion processed $709.7 million in weekly quantity with simply 18,098 customers — roughly $39,200 per person per week. Polymarket’s 309,991 customers generated $1.88 billion, or about $6,060 per person. The 6.5x hole in per-user quantity reinforces what we’ve famous earlier than: Opinion’s base skews closely towards bigger, institutional-style merchants, whereas Polymarket has a far broader retail footprint. Both fashions are viable, however they carry completely different danger profiles when volumes contract — a concentrated large-trader base can shift extra abruptly than a broad retail one.
Six months of relentless progress
The weekly pullback issues for trend-watchers, however doesn’t matter a lot for the macro story. Here’s the month-to-month trajectory throughout all tracked platforms over the previous six months:
*Note: Opinion was added to month-to-month monitoring at Dune in October; predict.enjoyable was added in November.
That’s a 13x enhance in quantity and a 12x enhance in transactions in half a 12 months. January alone at $26.25 billion exceeded the mixed complete of August, September, and October ($16.1 billion). The trade went from crossing $2 billion month-to-month to clearing that determine in a pair days within the span of two quarters.
The transaction progress indicators that the increase is not only in buying and selling quantity, however is supported by rising adoption and general transactions. The market went from 9.4 million month-to-month transactions in August to 112.6 million in January, which displays not simply bigger trades however considerably extra individuals participating extra steadily. January’s 112.6 million transactions averaged 3.6 million per day, in contrast to roughly 304,000 per day in August.
January’s platform breakdown provides additional context. Kalshi led quantity at $9.55 billion, adopted by Opinion at $8.08 billion and Polymarket at $7.66 billion. On transactions, Kalshi (54.5 million) and Polymarket (52.0 million) ran almost neck and neck, collectively accounting for 94.6% of all month-to-month transactions. Opinion’s 3.2 million transactions in opposition to its $8.08 billion in quantity additional illustrates its outsized per-trade measurement — a dynamic that continues to set it other than the sector.
For context on platform-level progress arcs: Kalshi’s month-to-month quantity went from $874 million in August to $9.55 billion in January, a rise of almost 11x. Polymarket went from $1.1 billion to $7.66 billion (a 7x leap). And platforms that hardly registered six months in the past — Opinion and predict.enjoyable have been added in October and November, respectively — are actually producing a whole lot of hundreds of thousands per week.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: the sports activities vs. non-sports divide comes into focus
Kalshi continues to outpace Polymarket in complete notional quantity, a transparent results of Kalshi’s emphasis on and success round sports activities markets. You can see the weekly quantity development between these two platforms during the last six weeks within the chart beneath:
Perhaps essentially the most analytically fascinating improvement in current weeks has been how clearly Kalshi and Polymarket have carved out distinct market positions. The post-Super Bowl information places this within the sharpest focus but.
When you cut up the week of Feb. 9-15 information by sports activities and non-sports classes, a stark image emerges:
| Segment | Kalshi | Polymarket | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1.996B (74.3%) | $688.7M (25.7%) | $2.685B |
| Non-sports | $432.1M (26.6%) | $1.191B (73.4%) | $1.623B |
In sports activities markets, Kalshi dominates at almost 3:1. In non-sports, the dynamic flips completely, with Polymarket main by roughly the identical ratio. These platforms aren’t simply competing; they seem to be serving basically completely different audiences and use instances.
Kalshi’s sports activities focus intensified from 78.3% of complete quantity (week of Feb. 2) to 82.2% (week of Feb. 9). Meanwhile, its non-sports classes are rising. Crypto climbed 22% to $190.5 million, economics jumped 60.6% to $10.6 million, and financials rose 40% to $8.4 million. But they nonetheless signify a fraction of the sports activities engine.
Polymarket’s class combine is much extra diversified. Its high three classes for the week ending Feb. 8 have been sports activities ($688.7 million, 37%), crypto ($589.1 million, 31%), and politics ($387.7 million, 21%). Crypto has been Polymarket’s progress engine of late, surging 8.9% week-over-week and approaching parity with sports activities as the platform’s high class. Culture (+56.2% to $25.3 million), climate (+61.5% to $16.8 million), and earnings (+440% to $5.4 million, albeit from a small base) all grew as properly, an indication that Polymarket’s non-sports liquidity is deepening throughout a number of verticals concurrently.
This divergence isn’t unintentional. Kalshi has been leaning aggressively into sports activities — and it’s working from a quantity and buyer acquisition perspective. The platform’s Robinhood distribution partnership drove over $200 million in March Madness quantity final 12 months, and extra just lately, Kalshi introduced on Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo as a shareholder and advertising and marketing accomplice. The deal, announced Feb. 6, makes Antetokounmpo the primary basketball participant to be a part of Kalshi as a shareholder, with the partnership spanning dwell occasions and advertising and marketing. The transfer drew each mainstream headlines and controversy. But It’s a transparent indication of the place Kalshi sees its model heading as the NBA enters the playoff push, particularly, persevering with to lean into advertising and marketing round sports activities buying and selling.
Despite the absence of NFL and soccer quantity within the coming months, the upcoming sports activities schedule is packed. Beyond the high-revenue producing March Madness match, the golf majors kick off with the Masters in April, and 2026 FIFA World Cup trading ramps up in June. The NCAA basketball match and World Cup might be sustained quantity drivers for weeks, not days. The backside line is within the brief time period, there will probably be no scarcity of high-profile sporting occasions to assist fill the hole left by the NFL.
But is sports activities sufficient? The sustainability query
The sports activities pipeline could also be packed, however it doesn’t absolutely reply a extra elementary query that’s been percolating beneath the trade’s headline progress numbers: is prediction markets’ heavy reliance on sports activities sustainable over the long run, or is it a progress entice?
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighed in on this straight final week, warning that the sector seems to be over-converging towards sports activities betting and short-term crypto worth hypothesis on the expense of broader monetary utility. His argument isn’t that sports activities markets are inherently flawed. Buterin is worried that platforms like Kalshi are optimizing for what generates fast income whereas neglecting the type of hedging and risk-transfer infrastructure that would make prediction markets sturdy monetary instruments fairly than leisure merchandise with completely different rails.
It’s a good critique price contemplating, particularly while you take a look at Kalshi’s class focus. At 82% sports activities quantity, the platform’s income base is tightly coupled to the sports activities calendar. When the NFL season ends, quantity dips. When the NBA and school basketball wind down in June, it may dip once more, proper as the World Cup doubtlessly picks up the slack. The query is whether or not this seasonal cycle — and prediction markets’ broader utility as severe monetary devices — can maintain the type of institutional curiosity and person retention that justifies the platform’s newest multi-billion greenback funding rounds.
Buterin’s various imaginative and prescient, prediction markets as generalized hedging devices fairly than leisure hypothesis autos, factors to a longer-term alternative. Kalshi itself has made early strikes on this route, filing a sportsbook hedging program aimed on the sports activities enterprise trade, an acknowledgment that the platform plans to construct on utility past the retail bettor.
The pressure is actual, although. Polymarket’s extra balanced class cut up, with crypto and politics every contributing meaningfully alongside sports activities, suggests it could be higher positioned for intervals when the sports activities calendar goes quiet. A platform that derives 37% of its quantity from sports activities is structurally completely different from one which derives 82%. Both are rising, however their vulnerability profiles look very completely different heading into the spring.
None of this diminishes what the trade has completed. Going from $2 billion in month-to-month quantity to $26 billion in six months — and from 9.4 million month-to-month transactions to 112.6 million — is extraordinary by any measure. But as prediction markets mature from their explosive progress part into one thing that wants to maintain institutional credibility, sturdy demand past the sports activities cycle may assist outline the subsequent chapter for the trade.
Data sourced from DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker and Dune Data Dashboards. Weekly information displays essentially the most just lately accomplished calendar week until in any other case famous. Monthly figures signify full calendar months.
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