Kalshi Hits $12B, Polymarket $10B All-Time Highs on March NCAA Tournament Surge

Kalshi has already posted $12.35 billion in notional quantity in March 2026, surpassing its earlier all-time high of $10.44 billion set throughout Super Bowl month in February. It’s an 18.3% month-over-month leap with two days of quantity nonetheless to gather for March. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s international platform has exceeded $10 billion in month-to-month quantity for the primary time, outpacing its earlier all-time high of $7.94 billion, additionally set in February.

The end result makes March the one largest month for each Kalshi and Polymarket, with Kalshi’s new report additionally representing the largest month ever recorded by a U.S.-regulated prediction market change.

The NCAA Tournament was the primary driver for Kalshi. All ten of Kalshi’s high markets by quantity in March had been faculty basketball video games, with Duke matchups alone accounting for 4 of them. The Elite Eight sport between UConn and Duke on March 29 led the platform with $24.5 million in mixed contract quantity. Notably, a First Round matchup, Siena at Duke, generated $18.1 million, greater than most Sweet 16 video games, reflecting the big speculative curiosity in a possible 15-seed upset of the event’s greatest draw.

Kalshi’s Top 5 Markets in March 2026:

On a weekly foundation, the March 16 week, encompassing Selection Sunday by means of the primary two rounds, continues to be the one largest week within the dataset at $3.40 billion, edging out even the bracket’s later rounds.

Note: Kalshi and Polymarket US and international quantity knowledge and high markets pulled from our inside prediction markets tracking data. Other platform knowledge and class totals are from Dune.

Polymarket nonetheless trails Kalshi, however monitoring collectively

Kalshi continues to trace above Polymarket when it comes to complete notional quantity, pushed largely by the sports activities calendar. Still, Polymarket’s $10.15 billion in international notional quantity by means of the primary 29 days of March surpasses its prior month-to-month report of $7.94 billion set in February for a 27.8% enhance and the most important month-over-month greenback acquire of any platform this month. Polymarket’s distinctive consumer rely hit 768,476 month to this point, up 14.4% already from February’s 671,441.

Both platforms posted their greatest months ever in March, however by totally different routes. Kalshi’s $12.35 billion edged Polymarket’s $10.15 billion globally, a $2.2 billion distinction, although Polymarket’s 27.8% MoM quantity development outpaced Kalshi’s 18.3%, pushed by a surge in geopolitical buying and selling exercise. Polymarket’s transaction development was much more pronounced, up 36.3% versus Kalshi’s 17.4%, suggesting a better quantity of smaller trades on the crypto-native platform in comparison with Kalshi’s bigger common contract sizes.

Week over week, each platforms tracked carefully by means of March, peaking within the March 16 week earlier than pulling again within the remaining full week of the month.

The week of March 16 continues to be Kalshi’s best week ever, because of a whopping 52 video games packed into the primary six days of the boys’s NCAA basketball tournament. That included the primary 4 play-in video games plus 32 Round 1 video games and 16 Round 2 video games. Last week’s Sweet 16 (eight video games) and Elite 8 (4 video games) nonetheless drove important quantity final week, however not close to the cumulative quantity as Week 1 of March Madness.

Polymarket’s peak was much less pronounced, reflecting its heavier reliance on geopolitical fairly than sports-driven quantity. The March 23 pullback on each platforms is to be anticipated with 12 complete males’s March Madness video games vs. the earlier week’s 52.

Polymarket vs. Kalshi class breakdown

Where Kalshi’s quantity was pushed by sports activities, Polymarket’s high markets had been dominated by Middle East geopolitics. The high three markets by quantity had been all Iran-related: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by February 28 ($125M), US strikes Iran by February 28 ($84M), and Netanyahu out by March 31 ($81M). The distinction illustrates the basically totally different audiences the 2 platforms serve with American sports activities bettors on one aspect, and crypto-native worldwide merchants on the opposite.

Polymarket Global Top 5 Markets in March 2026

That divergence reveals up clearly within the category-level knowledge. Sports accounted for 87% of Kalshi’s March quantity, $9.90 billion of $11.38 billion throughout the 4 tracked weeks. That consists of the newly separated out “Exotics” class, comprising primarily of sports activities parlay or “combo” quantity. Polymarket’s quantity was extra evenly distributed, with Politics (together with Trump markets) at $2.97 billion and Crypto at $2.72 billion collectively making up 57% of its complete. In the one class the place each platforms compete instantly, Sports, Kalshi’s $9.90 billion was 2.5x Polymarket’s $4.03 billion.

Broad market enlargement

Total prediction market quantity with two days to go reached $24.47 billion in March throughout all tracked platforms, up from $23.25 billion in February. Four platforms set simultaneous all-time highs: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com ($598M, up 50.5% from its prior ATH of $452M in January), and Limitless ($456M). The multi-platform report efficiency suggests broad market enlargement fairly than easy rotation between platforms.

Total business transactions for March already exceeded February’s full-month rely of 155.7 million, with 188.1 million recorded throughout simply the primary 4 weeks.

The one important drag on headline totals was Opinion, which fell from $3.11 billion in February to $475 million in March — an 84.7% drop. Without that decline, complete market development would have been considerably bigger.

For context on the U.S. regulatory panorama, Polymarket’s home product recorded $232 million in March quantity throughout 4,597 markets, in response to our monitoring. Polymarket US stays in early buildout, nonetheless with sports activities markets solely, whereas its high home competitor Kalshi continues to function at scale.

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