Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flashes Green Ahead of April CPI Print
Bitcoin (BTC) simply printed its first early-bull studying on CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator since March 2023, a regime shift that traditionally marks recoveries from deep corrections.
The sign arrives because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) knowledge Tuesday morning, an inflation print that might resolve whether or not BTC follows via or stalls under latest resistance.
Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flips After Two-Year Drought
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved out of bear territory this week for the first time in roughly 26 months. Similar prints in 2019 and early 2023 preceded sustained recoveries after deep drawdowns.
Both episodes adopted lengthy stretches of subdued value motion and rising on-chain conviction amongst long-term holders. The indicator’s 30-day moving average additionally factors to enhancing momentum beneath the floor.
BTC traded for $80,655 as of this writing, in accordance with BeInCrypto knowledge, down by about 0.6% on the day however holds a roughly 13% acquire over the previous 30 days.
BTC has additionally reclaimed the $78,000 zone aligned with the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder price foundation. That area has traditionally separated bear and bull phases.
On-chain analyst ExamineOnchain mentioned sustained commerce above the extent often coincides with stronger market structure and enhancing sentiment.
Exhaustion Signals Echo a 2022 Trap
The present studying carries one clear historic exception. In March 2022, the identical indicator briefly turned inexperienced earlier than BTC was rejected and prolonged its downtrend.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno flagged that a number of different metrics are already displaying exhaustion. He framed the present studying as much less clear than a basic early-cycle affirmation.
In my view, the possibilities barely lean towards this being a possible native high somewhat than the start of a brand new bull market, except value follows via strongly and confirms the transfer,” Moreno noted.
Joao Wedson of Alphractal raised a associated concern. The 30-day change in change reserves has flipped from detrimental to constructive. That means extra BTC is now shifting onto exchanges than off them.
Wedson warned the shift runs counter to the accumulation pattern bulls would count on at a real cycle low.
April CPI Becomes the Next Catalyst
The April 2026 inflation launch lands forward of the Wall Street open. Economists’ consensus places headline CPI close to 0.7% month over month and three.7% 12 months over 12 months.
That would mark an acceleration from March’s 3.3% YoY print, with gasoline and shelter doing most of the work.
A warmer studying would possible revive doubts about near-term Federal Reserve price cuts and strain danger property. A softer print might reinforce the bullish regime shift and help the recent May recovery.
For now, BTC sits between two narratives. Whether the sign extends right into a pattern or fades just like the 2022 instance stays open.
The consequence might hinge on how right this moment’s CPI print collides with an exhausted spot market. Traders will look ahead to follow-through above $82,000 and the True Market Mean for cleaner affirmation.
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