Bitcoin Hits ‘Wall Of Resistance,’ CryptoQuant Research Head Warns
Bitcoin’s newest rally has run into a serious technical and on-chain resistance zone, with CryptoQuant analysis head Julio Moreno warning that a number of indicators now level to elevated correction danger after a pointy rebound from April lows.
Moreno said CryptoQuant had been flagging a possible pullback for weeks, citing high unrealized earnings, a spike in profit-taking throughout spot and futures markets, slowing US spot demand, and resistance from each technical and on-chain worth ranges. The agency’s newest evaluation frames Bitcoin’s transfer towards the 200-day transferring common as a crucial check for whether or not the rally has sturdy help or resembles a bear-market rebound working out of momentum.
Why The Bitcoin Correction Risk Is Rising
“Bitcoin has reached a serious bear market resistance degree, the 200-day transferring common at $82.4K, following a 37% worth rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin additionally rallied 43% earlier than hitting the 200-day MA, after which the value resumed its downward pattern. The present setup raises the query of whether or not historical past repeats,” CryptoQuant wrote in its May 13 report, titled “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests the 200-Day MA as Profit-Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.”
The comparability with March 2022 is central to the agency’s warning. In CryptoQuant’s studying, the 200-day transferring common is not only a technical line on the chart, however a zone the place prior bear-market rallies have failed when supported by weak demand and heavy profit-taking. Bitcoin’s 37% transfer from April lows has introduced the market again to that very same form of inflection level.
A key concern is the rise in unrealized earnings amongst merchants. CryptoQuant mentioned merchants’ unrealized revenue margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the best degree since June 2025. That issues as a result of holders with sizable paper positive aspects typically turn into extra prepared to promote into power, particularly when a rally approaches a extensively watched resistance degree.
The agency mentioned these margin ranges mirror the conditions seen in March 2022, when Bitcoin final examined the 200-day transferring common earlier than resuming its broader decline. The implication just isn’t that the market should repeat that consequence, however that the present setup carries the same distribution danger if demand doesn’t strengthen.
Realized revenue knowledge means that some promoting has already begun. CryptoQuant mentioned day by day realized earnings surged to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the best degree since December 10, 2025. According to the report, spikes of that scale throughout bear-market rallies have traditionally preceded native tops, as newly worthwhile short-term holders speed up promoting into worth power.
The demand aspect of the market additionally stays a weak level in CryptoQuant’s evaluation. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned destructive in late April and stayed under zero as Bitcoin approached $80,000, which the agency interpreted as an indication of decelerating US investor demand.
CryptoQuant argued that sustained constructive Coinbase premium has traditionally been a prerequisite for extra sturdy Bitcoin rallies, and that its absence suggests the present transfer lacks broad-based US institutional conviction.
Spot obvious demand has improved, however stays destructive. The contraction narrowed from minus 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC, in keeping with the report. CryptoQuant mentioned that signifies situations have turn into much less extreme, however not robust sufficient to substantiate sustained spot accumulation. The agency additionally famous that demand progress seems concentrated extra in speculative perpetual futures positioning than in spot shopping for.
If a correction develops, CryptoQuant recognized the primary on-chain help degree close to $70,000, represented by the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The agency mentioned this degree has traditionally acted as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets as a result of it displays the typical price foundation of short-term merchants.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,961.
