Bitcoin Price Outlook For November 2026: One Price Level Remains Critical
Bitcoin value enters November defending $76,000, the common price foundation of short-term holders. The degree was held after the Binance hack pushed BTC to a six-week low of $76,275.
The shock from Binance triggered $1.58 billion in liquidations, and BTC closed October with a 7% loss.
On-Chain Data Puts Bitcoin at a Make-or-Break Level
Glassnode information reveals heavy change inflows in the course of the late-October slide. Net deposits reached about 11,500 BTC and eight,000 BTC on separate days, signaling sell-side stress.
Net outflows of roughly 40,000 BTC adopted inside days, among the many largest of 2026. However, these flows don’t recommend accumulation.
The stolen 18,270 BTC left a Binance sizzling pockets in the course of the hack, which registers as an change outflow. Users then pulled about $2 billion inside three hours after withdrawals reopened on November 1.
Meanwhile, the attacker’s cash stay untouched throughout 19 addresses. Any transfer towards exchanges may add contemporary provide stress.
The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio provides a clearer sign. It compares the market value with the common price foundation of current patrons.
The metric sits close to 1.02, that means short-term holders are about 2% in revenue. That locations their price foundation near $76,000, nearly precisely eventually week’s low.
Historically, drops beneath 1.0 in 2026 preceded capitulation. Breakdowns in late January and late May led to the February and June lows. In distinction, the August reclaim sparked a rally towards $87,000.
The ratio has additionally printed decrease highs since late September, falling from 1.20 to 1.03. Holding $76,000 retains current patrons worthwhile, whereas shedding it may push them to promote at a loss.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Points to Two November Scenarios
On the weekly chart, BTC is testing the bull market help band. The band combines the 21-week exponential shifting common (EMA) at $76,874 and the 20-week easy shifting common (SMA) at $73,779.
However, the Gaussian channel has stayed crimson since March, signaling a broader downtrend. BTC was just lately rejected on the channel’s declining midline, now close to $81,850.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 52, a impartial degree that leans barely decrease.
The every day chart provides a bearish warning. The Supertrend indicator flipped crimson after the hack, for the primary time since May.
That May sign preceded a 25% drop to $57,800. An analogous decline from the newest flip close to $80,000 would goal roughly $60,000.
For now, BTC is holding the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $77,876. Daily RSI has slipped to 38, extending a downtrend in momentum.
Resistance sits at $81,000 to $82,000, with a stronger provide zone between $85,000 and $87,000. That higher zone rejected BTC twice in late September and early October.
The November outlook due to this fact hinges on $76,000. Holding it and reclaiming $82,000 may open a path to $87,000.
Losing it could expose the $73,000 to $74,000 zone. The every day 0.382 Fibonacci degree, the 20-week SMA, and the weekly 0.236 Fibonacci degree all cluster there.
A breakdown beneath that zone may lengthen the slide to the Gaussian channel’s decrease band close to $71,000. A May-style repeat would put $60,000 in play.
Catalysts may speed up both transfer. Bitcoin ETFs noticed $643 million in outflows the day after the hack. Meanwhile, the US midterms on November 3 add one other layer of uncertainty.
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