Can Silver Reclaim Its $121 All-Time High Before May Ends?
Silver (XAG/USD) trades close to $79 after a 3% intraday leap cleared a multi-month resistance shelf, with the greenback concurrently sliding inside its personal falling channel.
The setup combines a structural sample, an inverse macro driver weakening in lockstep, and a futures positioning learn that hints at a quiet however persistent bullish lean. Whether silver can chase its $121.65 all-time high depends upon which sign wins out.
Silver Builds Continuation Setup After 167% Surge
Silver surged 167% from its October 2025 low at $45 to an all-time high of $121 in late January. Since that peak, the steel has traded inside a falling channel, a structural sample bounded by two parallel descending trendlines.
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Falling channels are usually not at all times bearish. When they type after an prolonged rally, they usually resolve as continuation patterns. The construction marks a pause earlier than the prior development resumes.
Today’s session pushed silver about 3% greater to roughly $79. The transfer broke above a multi-month resistance shelf that had capped each prior rally try. The resistance shelf is revealed later on this piece. For now, the following hurdle can be the higher trendline of the channel. If that breaks, bullish continuation for Silver (XAG) can resume.
The breakout sign is technically clear, however a single-day transfer means little with out macro assist. The greenback’s path is the larger driver.
Dollar Weakness Builds the Case for Higher Silver
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been falling since early April. The index tracks the greenback towards a basket of main currencies.
Silver and the greenback transfer inversely. A weaker greenback makes silver cheaper for overseas consumers and lifts rising market demand. It additionally reduces the chance value of holding a non-yielding asset.
The greenback’s slide has been bolstered by macro developments. On May 6, Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropped 7% to eight%. The selloff was pushed by optimism round a US-Iran deal that might reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A finalized settlement would scale back safe-haven greenback demand and speed up DXY weak point. Also, if DXY weakens one other 1.55%, the channel breakdown might assist silver additional.
Whether the greenback’s drop is being priced in, nonetheless, depends upon positioning on the futures degree.
COT Report Shows Cautious Deleveraging With Bullish Lean
The newest Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is dated April 28. It reveals merchants slicing silver publicity throughout the board.
Total open curiosity, the variety of excellent futures contracts, dropped by 14,187 to 101,275. Both longs and shorts had been lowered, however shorts got here off sooner. Non-commercial speculators trimmed lengthy positions by 1,919 contracts and brief positions by 2,359 contracts. Shorts unwound roughly 23% sooner than longs.
Net speculative positioning stays structurally lengthy at a 4.4-to-1 long-to-short ratio (31,314 vs 7,154). Commercial hedgers keep closely brief at 69.2% of open curiosity. This is regular as a result of they hedge bodily stock.
Traders are decreasing danger, however the marginal circulate is bullish. Shorts are exiting sooner than longs. With the macro chain and positioning aligned, silver’s worth ladder reveals the precise path to the all-time high.
Silver Price Levels: The Path Back to a $121 All-Time High
Silver just broke above $78, the 0.236 Fibonacci degree. This degree had been the multi-month resistance shelf.
A sustained reclaim opens $90 (0.382 Fibonacci), the place the higher channel trendline breaks meaningfully. Above $90, the following check is $99 (0.5 Fibonacci). That marks a 24% climb from present worth.
That $99 degree is important. Silver tried a number of rallies after the late-January peak however did not cross $99 on every try. Reclaiming it could mark the primary decisive break of post-ATH construction.
Above $99, the trail opens to $108 (0.618 Fib), $120 (0.786 Fib), and the all-time high at $121. That transfer represents a 53% climb from present worth. However, this degree surfacing in May depends upon how the COT positioning and DXY transfer evolve by means of the month.
The draw back ladder is narrower. Failure to carry $78 retains silver within the channel. A slide towards $64 and $60, the channel’s decrease band, turns into the following danger. A break under $60 would weaken the complete continuation thesis. For now, $99 separates a silver worth run to $121 ATH from a slide to the $64.
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