Key Takeaways ▸ Swalwell plunged from ~35% to ~1% inside hours of reviews together with sexual misconduct allegations. ▸ Traders are piling into dropout bets, pricing his exit as extremely seemingly. ▸ The scandal scrambles California’s major math, shifting benefit to Steyer and reopening the sector. The Rep. Eric Swalwell intercourse scandal firestorm hasn’t simply…
Key Takeaways ▸ California’s nonpartisan top-two major system is forcing merchants to cost who advances, not simply who wins, creating extra advanced and lively markets. ▸ Polymarket has drawn over $9.1M and Kalshi over $6.5 million in quantity on the race, forecasting a Republican advancer however a Democratic normal election winner. ▸ With no incumbent…
Key Takeaways ▸ Mary Peltola’s Senate entry has flipped a presumed protected GOP seat into a aggressive race, driving significant prediction market buying and selling quantity and a possible Senate flip alternative. ▸ Polymarket exhibits a extra decisive Peltola lead at 63%, whereas Kalshi’s market exhibits a tighter race between Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan….
The Georgia 14th House District particular election is heading to a runoff Tuesday, and there’s a lot of noise for what prediction markets are suggesting is not going to be a detailed race for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s previous seat. A Trump-endorsed Republican, Clayton Fuller, is way outpacing Democratic challenger Shawn Harris, with a 98% likelihood…
Key Takeaways ▸ Despite a crowded, contentious GOP main, buying and selling quantity and pricing stay muted. ▸ Markets overwhelmingly worth Louisiana as a secure Republican maintain, not anticipating an upset, limiting broader buying and selling attraction. Louisiana’s 2026 Republican Senate main is likely one of the most politically charged races within the nation, but…
Georgia is again at the heart of the 2026 Senate map, and prediction markets are pretty quiet on the races to date. Democrat Jon Ossoff’s 2021 runoff win gave Democrats management of the Senate, and now his seat is one in all the GOP’s clearest pickup possibilities. But the Republican main and the common election…
The Maine Democratic Senate major isn’t only a native rumble, it’s quietly turning into one of the crucial closely traded Senate‑pathway markets within the nation, with Kalshi’s nominee contract displaying a transparent tilt towards progressive rebel Graham Platner over the institution‑backed Janet Mills. Kalshi has seen greater than $2.2 million traded on the race, whereas Polymarket is monitoring…
Prediction markets are actually pricing Democrats as clear favorites to retake the House and displaying the Senate as a slim, possible toss-up race, in the midterm 2026 elections. That market information comes whereas polls present a traditionally regular midterm shift in opposition to the president’s social gathering, however not but the full‑blown “wave” that will assure a…
President Donald Trump let a key deadline move with out endorsing both incumbent Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton within the lead-up to the Texas GOP Senate major runoff May 26. March 17 was the deadline for candidates to withdraw from the race. Cornyn and Paxton superior from the preliminary March 3…