The headline quantity $5.89B throughout all tracked prediction market platforms for the week of March 2–8 seems like a near-repeat of the week prior, however that’s not precisely the case. The whole got here in nearly flat (-0.4% WoW) solely as a result of Kalshi and Polymarket every gained floor whereas the remainder of the…
Total notional quantity throughout tracked prediction exchanges rebounded to $5.80 billion for the week of Feb. 23–March 1, a ten.4% acquire from the $5.25 billion posted the prior week. The headline soar tells a part of the story however the internals inform the remainder. Polymarket surged 31.9% to $2.40 billion — its largest weekly exhibiting…
A brand new Federal Reserve analysis paper is placing prediction markets, and Kalshi particularly, extra squarely into the macroeconomic forecasting dialog. Published by way of the Fed’s Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), the examine analyzes information from Kalshi’s occasion contracts tied to inflation, Fed fee choices, GDP and unemployment, analyzing whether or not these…