Current S&P 500 Bull Market Turns 4 Monday and History Suggests More to Come

The S&P 500 bull market turns 4 on Monday, up 119% to a document from its October 2022 low. Six previous runs stored going after turning 4, although 4 bear markets later pushed the index under its birthday degree.

However, this run got here shut to ending in 2025. The index fell 18.9% on a closing foundation, in need of the 20% drop that conventionally ends a bull market.

Where Does the Current S&P 500 Bull Market Stand Against Past Ones?

The index closed at a record 7,818.93 on Oct. 6. That is about 119% above its 3,577.03 shut on Oct. 12, 2022, when the run started.

Motley Fool’s Daniel Sparks identified the six runs utilizing dates from funding analysis agency Yardeni Research.

Historically, the 1957 run was the shortest-lived after age 4, ending about seven weeks later. The 1982 and 2002 runs every lasted to about age 5.

In distinction, the 2009 run stretched almost 11 years, and the 1987 run lasted greater than 12.

After turning 4, the 1987 run about quadrupled and the 2009 run greater than doubled, Sparks calculated. The 1957 and 2002 runs added about 7% and 16%, respectively, earlier than peaking.

Does Surviving Age 4 Make a Bull Market a Safe Entry Point?

Still, bear markets adopted 4 of the six and took the index under its birthday degree, barely so in 1974.

Investors who purchased in October 2006 did so a few yr earlier than the 2002 run peaked. They had been down about 50% on the March 2009 low, excluding dividends.

Using knowledge from monetary knowledge supplier FactSet, Sparks calculated the index trades at about 26 instances past-year earnings. That exceeds its 10-year common of 23.6.

On the opposite hand, earnings anticipated over the following 12 months put the index close to its 10-year common.

Sparks argues the calendar gives little information to a peak, although he expects a bear market finally.

The milestone itself is determined by technique. Some buyers date a brand new bull market from April 2025, as a result of intraday losses topped 20%. On that rely, this run is roughly 18 months outdated.

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