Fidelity Flags 516% Solana Rebound Signal With One Major Caveat
Solana (SOL) has fallen about 71% from its 2025 all-time high. Amid this worth decline, holders are sitting on important unrealized losses, in line with Fidelity Digital Assets’ Q2 2026 Signals Report.
The downturn is mirrored within the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which has dropped to -0.67. The stage has been related to a 516% median one-year return, although Fidelity cautioned that the sample might not repeat.
Fidelity Flags Bullish Solana Setup, Warns Pattern May Not Repeat
In Q1 2026, Solana’s NUPL rating collapsed 148%, falling from -0.27 to -0.67 as the worth dropped 33%. The studying sits deep in what Fidelity describes as the “Capitulation” zone.
“There are tentative indicators of stabilization. The NUPL rating has rebounded 29% from its early February backside of -0.94, which can have marked a capitulation level for buyers unwilling to soak up rising losses. However, draw back danger stays, and the formation of a brand new backside can’t be dominated out,” the report learn.
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The agency highlighted that durations when SOL’s NUPL traded close to -0.67 have aligned with a median one-year return of 516%. The three-year compound annual progress price at that stage was 62%.
However, Fidelity cautioned that the forward-return knowledge relies on solely 10 historic observations for the one-year window and 6 for the three-year window. This highlights each Solana’s comparatively quick observe document and the “excessive nature of this metric’s present worth.”
The report additionally discovered that the correlation between present NUPL ranges and future returns stays weak. Specifically, the connection with one-year ahead returns is zero, whereas the three-year correlation is -0.16, indicating a weak inverse relationship over longer durations.
This restricted and inconsistent relationship aligns with Fidelity’s broader view that decrease NUPL ranges are “usually extra constructive.” Still, the agency emphasised that past patterns may not maintain going ahead.
“Importantly, the historic relationship between SOL’s NUPL rating and ahead returns might not persist,” Fidelity stated.
Solana Network Activity Tells a Different Story
Despite the worth weak spot, Solana network usage has accelerated. Monthly energetic addresses rose 50% in Q1 2026, and new addresses jumped 35%.
“Solana utilization has surged even amidst the downturn in asset worth. This showcases Solana as a rising monetary ecosystem with customers transacting at an elevated price even when volatility is high,” the report added.
Stablecoin exercise additionally held up. The 30-day common switch worth climbed roughly 8% to $7.2 billion throughout the quarter.
Fidelity reads the divergence as proof of “a powerful and fewer cyclical consumer base,” suggesting Solana could also be transitioning away from its meme coin-pushed id towards “extra mainstream, sustainable monetary exercise.”
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