Kalshi Extends Volume Lead to Nearly $1B on Polymarket Crypto Dip

The ultimate March numbers are in, they usually verify what the mid-month trajectory instructed: March 2026 was the most important month on report for U.S. prediction markets. Kalshi closed at $13.07 billion in notional quantity and 88.4 million transactions, up 25% month-over-month on each metrics. Polymarket completed at $10.57 billion (+33% MoM) and 115.4 million transactions (+43% MoM), marking the second consecutive month each platforms set all-time highs concurrently.

The ultimate week of March informed a extra sophisticated story. Kalshi nudged greater to $2.90 billion (+6.4% week-over-week) on the energy of the NCAA Men’s Final Four, whereas Polymarket fell sharply to $1.97 billion (-12.0% WoW), its softest week since Feb. 16-22 when it was $1.82 billion. The divergence got here down largely to class publicity: Polymarket’s crypto markets dropped 24%, whereas Kalshi’s politics class surged 36% WoW on authorities shutdown and Trump Cabinet shakeups. Kalshi remains to be down from its all-time high $3.40B peak within the week of March 16, which encompassed a high quantity of 52 NCAA males’s basketball event video games masking the First Four plus Round 1 and a couple of video games.

Kalshi’s report month constructed on March Madness

Kalshi’s March report was essentially an NCAA event story, as previously documented. Sports, together with its Exotics class, accounted for 82.5% of weekly quantity within the ultimate week, a focus that has held remarkably regular all through the event run. The platform’s single largest week of the interval, the $3.40 billion report set through the March 16 week, got here on the again of Selection Sunday and the event’s opening rounds. The Final Four, whereas carrying simply two video games, nonetheless pushed sports activities quantity up 6.8% WoW, an indication of how a lot betting depth concentrates in marquee matchups.

Kalshi’s greenback lead over Polymarket in notional quantity has grown from $294 million in October to roughly $2.5 billion, a quantity that has held regular over the previous two months whilst Polymarket’s progress charge outpaced Kalshi’s in March. Kalshi captured 55.3% of mixed Ok+P notional quantity for the month, down barely from 56.8% in February, however its dominance in high-profile sports activities markets stays the defining aggressive benefit.

The non-sports image is creating, if slowly. Politics reached 2.0% of Kalshi’s weekly combine, a modest share, however the +36% WoW bounce in greenback phrases reveals there’s actual person urge for food for political markets when the information warrants it. Crypto held at 9.7% for a average decline. Everything else stays in rounding-error territory relative to sports activities.

Kalshi week over week class breakdown

Polymarket hits report transactions, quantity drops on crypto

Polymarket’s March progress numbers are genuinely robust as its 33% quantity progress and 43% transaction progress each outpaced Kalshi, however the ultimate week launched a vulnerability value watching. The platform’s crypto class dropped $161 million in a single week (-24% WoW), probably reflecting the present broader crypto market downturn and regulatory uncertainty. Crypto represented 29.7% of Polymarket’s weekly combine the week prior; by the ultimate week, that had compressed to 25.6%.

Polymarket’s politics class, in the meantime, is displaying robust resilience. Politics, together with Trump markets, held pretty regular at 26.9% of weekly quantity whilst whole platform quantity fell, and the Trump sub-category particularly grew WoW. Polymarket’s extra diversified class combine is a strategic asset in politically lively durations, although the crypto drop reveals a possible vulnerability tied to crypto sentiment shifts.

Transaction quantity is Polymarket’s clearest structural energy. At 115.4 million transactions in March, 31% greater than Kalshi, Polymarket is processing extra trades by a large margin, with a mean commerce dimension now round $92 versus Kalshi’s $148. As famous in prior reviews, common commerce sizes on each platforms have stabilized after compressing sharply since October, suggesting the person combine has discovered a brand new equilibrium reasonably than persevering with to skew smaller. This after all might change within the close to future, particularly for Kalshi, as institutional traders ramp up participation.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Six week development

Zooming out throughout the earlier six-week window, the aggressive image has been constant in route however uneven in tempo. Kalshi held a notional quantity lead each single week, and that lead has widened significantly, from $329 million within the week of Feb. 23 to $932 million within the ultimate week of March.

The sample reveals two distinct dynamics. When the sports activities calendar is heavy with convention championships and the early event rounds, Kalshi pulls away. When quantity normalizes, because it did the week of March 23, the hole compresses. The ultimate week’s $932 million lead is one thing of an outlier, amplified by Polymarket’s crypto-related pullback reasonably than any outsized Kalshi surge.

On transactions, the story flips. Polymarket led each week within the dataset, processing between 3 and 6 million extra trades than Kalshi every week. That lead narrowed sharply within the March 30 week to simply 2.6 million, the closest the platforms have been within the monitoring window, once more pushed extra by Polymarket’s quantity drop than by Kalshi closing the hole organically.

The remainder of the sector

Outside the highest two, Crypto.com was the standout in March, posting $629 million, its strongest month but and a 58.5% bounce from February. It’s constructing towards a constant third-place place and bears watching because it provides quantity.

Limitless had a rougher shut to the month, falling each week via March after peaking at $145 million within the March 2 week, and dropping 52% within the ultimate week alone to $33 million. predict.enjoyable pulled again sharply (-58% MoM to $330 million) after a robust February, and Opinion continued its structural retreat, down 84% from its January peak to $496 million, seemingly settling right into a a lot smaller footprint after the event-driven quantity that fueled its earlier surge dissipated.

What’s forward

The NCAA Men’s Championship game Monday night time falls inside the present week’s knowledge window, which ought to ship a significant quantity spike, significantly on Kalshi, which has persistently captured the vast majority of high-profile school basketball motion. The National Championship winner market, a futures market that has been accumulating quantity because it opened on Oct. 28, has amassed round $230 million in buying and selling quantity as of Monday morning.

Beyond the title sport, April brings the complete ramp of NHL playoffs, the MLB common season and the Masters Tournament, which kicks off April 9. Golf majors have traditionally generated high prediction market quantity, and upcoming PGA majors shall be no exception.

Macro and political markets additionally aren’t going anyplace. Trump strikes and political drama have already proven they will meaningfully transfer platform quantity week-to-week, and the coverage calendar stays full via spring.

The regulatory backdrop additionally shifted this week. On April 3, a Nevada choose extended the ban on Kalshi working within the state. One day earlier, the CFTC filed lawsuits in opposition to three states difficult their authority to regulate platforms like Kalshi. The federal-versus-state regulatory battle is now in lively litigation, an overhang for the business that would form market entry and platform technique effectively into 2026 and past.

March set the ceiling. April will inform us whether or not it’s a flooring to develop from.

Note: Data from our inner prediction markets tracking and Dune data dashboards contributed to this report.

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