McDonald’s Stock Hits 2-Year Low as Bear Market Turns Official
McDonald’s (MCD) inventory fell to $264.09 on July 15, its lowest stage in two years. The drop extends the decline to 22.45% from the March report high of $341.75, inserting the inventory in an official bear market.
A wave of analyst downgrades hit the fast-food big this week. Meanwhile, the weekly chart reveals the value testing its closing Fibonacci help, with momentum close to multi-year lows.
Why Is McDonald’s Stock Going Down?
The newest leg down got here after Redburn Atlantic reduce its score two notches, from purchase to promote. The agency warned that GLP-1 weight-loss medication might value McDonald’s as much as 28 million buyer visits. That equals roughly $482 million in misplaced income per 12 months.
Price goal cuts adopted shortly. Citigroup lowered its goal from $375 to $335, whereas Morgan Stanley trimmed its goal from $331 to $322. Wall Street has grown cautious on different giant caps, too, as a recent sell call on Tesla showed.
The downgrades landed on an already weakened enterprise. Lower-income diners maintain slicing visits, and franchisees say the $5 worth meal leaves them nearly no revenue. Gross margins have slipped from 58% in late 2025 to 56% in early 2026.
MCD Tests the Last Fibonacci Support at $264
The weekly chart confirms the extent of the technical injury the five-month slide has precipitated. The worth first misplaced the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $292.64, which had acted as a broad help zone since 2024. It then broke the 0.618 stage at $281.05 in early July.
MCD now trades at $264.95, sitting straight on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $264.55. This stage overlaps a requirement zone shaped on the August 2024 lows close to $262. Similar breakdowns pushed SpaceX stock near record lows this week.
This confluence makes $264 the final main help earlier than a full retrace of the 2024 rally. A weekly shut under it will expose the July 2024 low at $243.53.
Weekly RSI Falls to Its Lowest Since October 2023
Momentum paints an equally stretched image. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped under 31 in early May 2026, undercutting the June 2024 low of 33.61. That studying was the bottom since October 2023, when the indicator bottomed at 26.68.
However, this weak spot could carry a contrarian sign. Both prior extremes marked main long-term bottoms for the inventory. An identical weekly RSI setup lately preceded a bounce try in XRP.
The indicator presently hovers close to 33.6, retesting the June 2024 stage from under. Reclaiming this threshold would counsel sellers are dropping energy, even when the value has not but turned.
MCD Price Prediction Hinges on $264 Holding
Two eventualities now outline the outlook. If the 0.786 Fibonacci stage and the August 2024 demand zone maintain, the oversold RSI might gasoline a aid rally. The first goal could be the damaged 0.618 stage at $281.05, roughly 6% above the present worth.
In distinction, a weekly shut under $264 would sign a deeper breakdown. The subsequent help waits at $243.53, about 8% decrease, finishing a full retrace of the 2024 advance.
The subsequent main catalyst arrives with Q2 earnings in early August. Until then, McDonald’s inventory trades one weekly candle away from both a textbook oversold bounce or a contemporary multi-year low.
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