Missed the AI Rally? Michael Burry Is Betting on Copper Instead
Copper futures touched a file $6.95 a pound intraday on September 22 and closed at a file $6.92. The achieve arrived a day after Michael Burry named a copper miner as his oblique synthetic intelligence (AI) guess.
The rally has accelerated since mid-September as Chinese consumers stocked up forward of the holidays.
Copper Leaves Gold and Silver Behind in 2026
Copper has gained practically 20% to this point in 2026 and greater than 46% over the previous 12 months. By comparability, gold is up 0.02% year-to-date, whereas silver has fallen 8.5%.
Over the previous 12 months, nevertheless, silver has risen 49.2% and gold 15.47%. Earlier this month, copper slid nearly 8% after experiences {that a} White House tariff plan had stalled. However, the steel has not regained energy as the world struggles with shortages.
Copper cathode inventories in Shanghai fell to 43,900 tonnes, the lowest since 2023. Bloomberg reported the determine from weekly Shanghai Metals Market information launched Monday.
In London, cancelled warrants, steel booked to depart London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses, rose to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday. That equals 48% of metal on warrant, leaving 133,725 tonnes obtainable, in accordance with MINING.COM data.
Burry’s Copper Bet Rests on an 18-Year Mine Gap
The tightening provide image ties into the case that Burry made a day before the record. In a September 21 Substack put up, he defined why he’s largely ignoring the AI inventory rally.
“The home social gathering is packed, pushing AI greater immediately, however I’m largely ignoring the woo-hoos…I consider copper, and the way it will get prettier because it ages,” he wrote.
His reply to that crowded commerce is Ero Copper, a Brazil-focused copper-and-gold producer. Burry backed the decide with information from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok.
Major copper discoveries, with deposits containing at the least 500,000 tonnes, have fallen from double digits a 12 months to 1 or two, with none in 2025.
That scarcity of discoveries issues as a result of mines take so lengthy to construct. Slok famous that new deposits want roughly 18 years to achieve manufacturing, whereas information facilities add copper demand inside two to a few years.
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S&P Global’s longer-range outlook factors in the similar path. The agency expects demand to climb 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040. Without vital changes, it tasks a 10-million-tonne shortfall by then.
However, the near-term outlook is much less settled. CRU had projected a 639,000-tonne world surplus for 2026, although it noticed the market as balanced at greatest in August. Burry additionally acknowledged that a part of the rally displays a brief lull in provide.
Traders at the moment are nonetheless ready on the White House tariff resolution, which will shape whether US stockpiles attain consumers elsewhere.
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