NFL Preseason Week 1: Prediction Market Odds & What to Watch

NFL preseason Week 1 kicks off on Thursday evening and continues on Friday and Saturday. All 32 groups will likely be in motion throughout 16 video games. 

The first full week of preseason motion delivers an prolonged take a look at rookies and roster battles, with beginning models making appearances in some spots.  

Prediction markets are prepared for what shapes up to be an lively few days for NFL merchants. 

NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds & Predictions

Here’s how Kalshi and Polymarket presently worth each NFL preseason Week 1 matchup:

Matchup	Trade on Kalshi	Trade on Polymarket
Detroit at Cincinnati	Lions 30% / Bengals 70%	Lions 29% / Bengals 72%
Green Bay at Pittsburgh	Packers 54% / Steelers 46%	Packers 55% / Steelers 46%
Indianapolis at New England	Colts 58% / Patriots 42%	Colts 59% / Patriots 42%
Arizona at Las Vegas	Cardinals 48% / Raiders 52%	Cardinals 48% / Raiders 53%
LA Chargers at Houston	Chargers 49% / Texans 51%	Chargers 48% / Texans 53%
Tennessee at San Francisco	Titans 68% / 49ers 32%	Titans 67% / 49ers 34%
Denver at Atlanta	Broncos 68% / Falcons 32%	Broncos 70% / Falcons 31%
Tampa Bay at NY Jets	Buccaneers 30% / Jets 70%	Buccaneers 30% / Jets 71%
Miami at Washington	Dolphins 59% / Commanders 41%	Dolphins 61% / Commanders 40%
Carolina at Buffalo	Panthers 48% / Bills 52%	Panthers 48% / Bills 53%
Cleveland at Chicago	Browns 56% / Bears 44%	Browns 57% / Bears 44%
Minnesota at NY Giants	Vikings 54% / Giants 46%	Vikings 54% / Giants 47%
LA Rams at Kansas City	Rams 45% / Chiefs 55%	Rams 45% / Chiefs 56%
Jacksonville at New Orleans	Jaguars 46% / Saints 54%	Jaguars 46% / Saints 55%
Philadelphia at Baltimore	Eagles 64% / Ravens 36%	Eagles 65% / Ravens 36%
Dallas at Seattle	Cowboys 37% / Seahawks 63%	Cowboys 37% / Seahawks 64%

NFL Preseason Week 1 Thursday Games

Week 1 will get underway with six video games on Thursday evening. Here’s what to count on. 

• 7 p.m. ET – Lions at Bengals: Cincinnati plans to give a number of starters work, together with Joe Burrow. Detroit is taking the other strategy, with Jared Goff sitting out and lots of anticipated to be part of him on the sidelines. That may depart rookie Luke Altmyer with a big workload after Teddy Bridgewater just lately stepped away from the staff.
• 7 p.m. ET – Packers at Steelers (NFLN): Green Bay is predicted to play Jordan Love and different starters in Thursday’s opener, giving the first-team offense some early work. Aaron Rodgers seems unlikely to be part of them, with the Steelers veteran saying this week that he sees little worth in preseason motion, however Mike McCarthy will make the ultimate name.
• 7:30 p.m. ET – Colts at Patriots: Indianapolis will sit Daniel Jones for its first two preseason video games, with Anthony Richardson beginning Thursday earlier than Riley Leonard takes over. New England can be anticipated to maintain Drake Maye out, leaving Tommy DeVito and rookie Behren Morton to deal with the quarterback work after the groups held a joint follow Tuesday.
• 8 p.m. ET – Cardinals at Raiders (ESPNU): Arizona is altering course after resting most of its starters within the Hall of Fame Game, with Jacoby Brissett and different first-team gamers anticipated to see motion in opposition to Las Vegas. Rookie Carson Beck stays value watching after an encouraging preseason debut, whereas the Raiders will get their first recreation motion underneath new head coach Klint Kubiak.
• 8 p.m. ET – Chargers at Texans: Playing time stays a key query right here, with Jim Harbaugh beforehand indicating that some Chargers veterans may see preseason motion whereas others will likely be dealt with extra cautiously. Houston enters the opener after DeMeco Ryans put the staff by means of a game-like costume rehearsal in follow, with competitors nonetheless ongoing alongside the offensive line, together with at proper deal with.
• 9 p.m. ET – Titans at 49ers (NFLN): Cam Ward and the Titans starters are anticipated to see motion Thursday after getting take a look at San Francisco throughout Tuesday’s joint follow. The 49ers are taking the other strategy, with Kyle Shanahan saying most starters will sit with youthful gamers competing for roles. 

NFL Preseason Week 1 Friday Games

Friday gives a lighter schedule, with three video games kicking off concurrently at 7 p.m. ET.

• 7 p.m. ET – Broncos at Falcons (ESPNU): Atlanta’s quarterback scenario offers the most important storyline, with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. competing for the beginning job underneath new head coach Kevin Stefanski. Penix has been working his means again from final season’s ACL harm. Denver enters the opener hoping for a year-three leap from Bo Nix, with a number of offensive roles nonetheless taking form throughout camp.
• 7 p.m. ET – Buccaneers at Jets (NFLN): Tampa Bay and New York will already be conversant in one another after holding joint practices main into Friday’s recreation. Jets rookie edge rusher David Bailey, the No. 2 total choose, made noise in Tuesday’s session after getting back from an ankle subject. Both groups can use the preseason opener for additional rookie analysis after getting managed work in opposition to one another’s starters.
• 7 p.m. ET – Dolphins at Commanders: Miami and Washington additionally meet after a joint follow this week, which Dan Quinn has emphasised as a worthwhile alternative to give gamers managed situational work. Washington has a number of competitions value monitoring, together with within the backfield and at security. Miami enters its first recreation underneath a brand new teaching employees with loads of roster analysis nonetheless underway.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Saturday Games

Saturday delivers the busiest day of NFL preseason Week 1, with seven video games stretching from early afternoon by means of the night.

• 1 p.m. ET – Panthers at Bills: Carolina will give its starters their first preseason motion Saturday, with Dave Canales concentrating on roughly 10–20 snaps after sitting a lot of the first staff through the Hall of Fame Game. Buffalo makes its preseason debut, with Sean McDermott‘s plans for Josh Allen and different established starters nonetheless value monitoring.
• 1 p.m. ET – Browns at Bears (NFLN): Cleveland’s unsettled quarterback competitors makes this certainly one of Saturday’s most attention-grabbing video games, with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders battling for the beginning job. Todd Monken has but to identify his starter for the preseason opener. Chicago used Tuesday’s follow as a full game-day simulation as Ben Johnson prepares his staff for its first stay motion of the preseason. 
• 1 p.m. ET – Vikings at Giants (ESPNU): Minnesota enters the preseason after naming Kyler Murray its beginning quarterback over J.J. McCarthy, shifting consideration towards how the Vikings divide their preseason reps behind heart. McCarthy’s workload will likely be significantly attention-grabbing as Minnesota determines his function behind Murray, whereas New York will get its first recreation motion underneath John Harbaugh.
• 4 p.m. ET – Rams at Chiefs (NFLN): Los Angeles and Kansas City enter the preseason with established quarterbacks and little motive to expose key veterans to pointless work. Patrick Mahomes‘ workload is especially value monitoring as he returns from final season’s knee harm, whereas rookies and roster competitions ought to account for a lot of the afternoon.
• 4 p.m. ET – Jaguars at Saints (ESPNU): Jacksonville has already supplied some readability: Liam Coen plans to sit most veterans and starters after giving them their main work throughout joint follow periods. Offensive coordinator Grant Udinski may also name performs Saturday, leaving Coen free to consider the staff from a distinct perspective through the opener.
• 7 p.m. ET – Eagles at Ravens (ESPNU): Philadelphia and Baltimore meet Saturday evening with each golf equipment possessing established starters and many to consider additional down their depth charts. Backup quarterback play and youthful gamers competing for roster spots ought to carry a lot of the workload except both teaching employees adjustments course on veteran participation nearer to kickoff.
• 8 p.m. ET – Cowboys at Seahawks (NFLN): Dallas arrives in Seattle after holding a scrimmage in opposition to the Rams earlier within the week, whereas the Seahawks have a number of unsettled depth-chart conditions heading into their opener. Seattle’s first unofficial depth chart exhibits competitors all through the roster, together with at operating again.

What to Consider When Trading NFL Preseason Prediction Markets

Preseason prediction markets include a distinct set of variables than common season video games. Results matter lower than evaluating gamers and getting ready for Week 1. That could make forecasting these video games difficult, however there are key components that may enable you to make sense of the matchups. 

• Starter availability and enjoying time: A couple of collection from a beginning offense can change the complexion of a recreation. Monitor coach bulletins intently, particularly when one staff plans to use starters and the opposite doesn’t.
• Quarterback rotations: Backup quarterbacks sometimes deal with most preseason snaps. Who begins, how lengthy every quarterback performs, and the standard of the depth behind them can all matter.
• Coaching strategy: Teams deal with the preseason in a different way. Some coaches give starters significant reps, whereas others use joint practices for first-team work and preserve veterans on the sidelines throughout video games.
• Roster battles and depth: The second half can look dramatically totally different from the primary as groups transfer deeper down the roster. Strong quarterback and offensive line depth can develop into significantly necessary late in video games.
• Late-breaking information: Playing time plans can change rapidly due to accidents, practices, or teaching choices. Information launched shut to kickoff can transfer prediction market costs.

NFL Futures Prediction Markets to Watch Before Week 1

Preseason video games are just one a part of the NFL prediction market panorama. Traders are already pricing the most important questions surrounding the 2026 season, together with 2027 Super Bowl odds and what’s going to occur in NFL Week 1. Here are a few of the markets gaining essentially the most traction.

• Super Bowl LXI winner: Before a single significant recreation has been performed, there has already been over $59M in buying and selling quantity at Kalshi, a quantity that climbs with every passing day. The Rams (16%) high the board, adopted by the Bills (8%) and defending champion Seahawks (8%). 
• NFL MVP: Preseason pricing suggests it’s about to be a severely aggressive chase. A quartet of AFC QBs is atop the charts for now. Josh Allen (11%) is a slight favourite, proper forward of Joe Burrow (10%), Justin Herbert (10%), and Lamar Jackson (10%).  
• Regular season Week 1 video games: Open for enterprise and actively buying and selling. Volume is already ticking up on a number of. The season opener, a giant recreation rematch of Patriots vs. Seahawks, just lately surpassed $150k in quantity at Kalshi. 

Beyond the above, there’s a slew of futures markets to dig into, together with win totals, division winners, convention champions, awards, and extra. The preseason gives an early alternative to observe costs throughout these markets, which is able to proceed to evolve all through the marketing campaign.

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