Polymarket Odds Plummet Despite Trump Pushing CLARITY Act With Urgent China Warning
President Donald Trump pressed the Senate to move the CLARITY Act, warning that China may seize management of crypto and synthetic intelligence (AI) if lawmakers fail to behave.
The attraction arrives with the Senate again in session and a slim window earlier than the recess that begins August 8. Lawmakers have roughly 4 weeks, extensively considered because the invoice’s final lifelike probability this yr. Yet, success odds on prediction market Polymarket have plummeted by nearly 5% right now.
Trump Frames the CLARITY Act as a China Race
Trump posted the attraction on Truth Social, linking it to the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina Republican, whom he referred to as a supporter of the invoice, died over the weekend.
“China, and plenty of different international locations, wish to take full and whole management of this main monetary “occurring,” in addition to A.I., the place we are actually main, however the place they’re preventing onerous. Don’t let China win on both topic!!!” Trump articulated.
Follow us on X to get the newest information because it occurs
The warning frames a wider contest between Washington and Beijing over digital property and AI. CLARITY would construct on the GENIUS Act, the primary main US crypto regulation, signed final July.
The House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act 294-134 in July 2025, with dozens of Democrats becoming a member of. It later cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9.
The invoice now wants 60 votes on the Senate flooring, a threshold that has grown more politically expensive to succeed in.
Why 60 Votes Remain Out of Reach
The invoice nonetheless faces unresolved fights, and ethics is the largest. Democrats need guardrails on conflicts of curiosity tied to Trump’s crypto enterprise.
Trump’s newest monetary disclosure confirmed crypto as his greatest earnings supply. It included more than $1 billion from his family’s ventures, led by over $500 million from World Liberty Financial.
The two committee Democrats who backed the invoice stated their help wouldn’t prolong to the ground with out a deal. Negotiators additionally disagree over developer liability protections for non-custodial software program.
Graham’s loss of life and Mitch McConnell’s absence since mid-June depart Republicans little margin. That raises the stakes for successful Democratic help.
Analysts Split on the Odds
Industry voices disagree on the result. Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith sees an actual path, citing constructing momentum and the rising invoice textual content.
Still, Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn is extra cautious. His agency just lately cut its passage odds to 50%, citing a shrinking calendar and competitors for flooring time.
Prediction market Polymarket mirrors that doubt. As of July 13, its merchants put the chances of passage this yr close to 24%, down from above 70% earlier.
Custodia Escalates Its Fed Fight
Meanwhile, Wyoming crypto financial institution Custodia requested the Supreme Court to revive its fight with the Federal Reserve. The financial institution desires justices to overview its denied grasp account.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City rejected that account in January 2023, citing its crypto focus. Founder Caitlin Long petitioned the court docket after decrease courts backed the Fed.
Critics have lengthy referred to as the denial an instance of Operation Choke Point 2.0.
The coming weeks will check whether or not Washington can ship crypto’s greatest legislative prize earlier than the calendar runs out.
The submit Polymarket Odds Plummet Despite Trump Pushing CLARITY Act With Urgent China Warning appeared first on BeInCrypto.