Prediction Markets Hit $5.9B as Kalshi and Polymarket Set Combined Weekly Record

The headline quantity $5.89B throughout all tracked prediction market platforms for the week of March 2–8 seems like a near-repeat of the week prior, however that’s not precisely the case. The whole got here in nearly flat (-0.4% WoW) solely as a result of Kalshi and Polymarket every gained floor whereas the remainder of the tracked discipline shed quantity closely. That contains Opinion Labs, which has proven a decline of 87% over 5 weeks.

Strip out the smaller exchanges, and the two-platform mixed determine of $5.35B is the best on document, surpassing the prior document of $5.13B set within the earlier week (Feb. 23-March 1).

• Kalshi: $2.86B (+4.7% WoW)
• Polymarket: $2.50B (+4.0% WoW)
• Kalshi + Polymarket mixed: $5.35B (+4.4% WoW) — a brand new peak for the two-platform whole

Not included in Dune’s total monitoring numbers is Polymarket US, now tracked reside on our DeFi Rate prediction markets tracker. Polymarket US posted $5.9 million in notional quantity for the week of March 2, little change from the week prior. The platform remains to be new after beginning a gradual rollout in December 2025, and nonetheless solely gives sports activities markets.

According to our monitoring, Kalshi and Polymarket international + US platform at the moment supply a mixed 207,327 energetic markets with the bulk coming from Kalshi (85%). Open curiosity at the moment stands at $1.2B, cut up 68% Kalshi / 32% Polymarket. Despite much less quantity and many fewer markets, Polymarket nonetheless had extra weekly transactions with 26.2 million to Kalshi’s 20.0 million. As you may see from the information snapshot, Polymarket US stays tiny compared to Kalshi and its personal international platform.

As we await an anticipated quantity increase from the NCAA March Madness match, politics and crypto stay essential buying and selling drivers as Kalshi’s “exotics” class additionally surges. Let’s dig in.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket — face to face

Kalshi and Polymarket moved in lockstep this week, with each platforms posting positive factors in quantity and transactions concurrently for the primary time in a number of reporting intervals. Kalshi grew 4.7% to $2.86B whereas Polymarket grew 4.0% to $2.50B. The mixed $5.35B eclipsed the prior document set simply final week.

The transaction story runs parallel. Kalshi processed 20.0M transactions (+7.0% WoW) and Polymarket had 26.3M (+6.6% WoW), bringing the two-platform whole to 46.3M. As has been the sample for months, Polymarket leads in transaction rely whereas Kalshi leads in greenback quantity, a structural divergence that displays Kalshi’s larger common commerce measurement ($143 vs. Polymarket’s $95). Both figures dipped barely WoW (-2.2% and -2.5% respectively), suggesting the amount progress was transaction-driven quite than a shift towards bigger particular person positions.

Market share between the 2 platforms has settled right into a slender band. Kalshi holds 53.4% of the mixed two-platform quantity, basically unchanged from 53.2% the week prior. That stability comes regardless of very totally different class compositions. Kalshi’s week, per typical, was overwhelmingly sports-driven whereas Polymarket’s positive factors got here from a surge in sports activities quantity.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket 6-week quantity pattern (Jan. 26-March 8)

Kalshi vs. Polymarket metrics week over week

Metric	Kalshi	WoW Δ	Polymarket	WoW Δ
Volume	$2,858.1M	+4.7%	$2,496.4M	+4.0%
Transactions	20,041,183	+7.0%	26,260,409	+6.6%
Avg. wager measurement	$142.62	-2.2%	$95.06	-2.5%
Market share	53.4%	—	46.6%	—

Source: DeFi Rate. Week ending March 8, 2026.

Polymarket US highlights

Polymarket US generated $5.9M in weekly quantity for the week of March 2–8, holding roughly regular in comparison with the prior week. The product stays sports-only and all 15 prime markets by quantity final week have been NBA sport strains, led by Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks (March 4) at $532.9K. That top-market determine is down modestly from the prior week’s chief of $584.8K, and the ceiling throughout the highest 15 markets hasn’t shifted meaningfully: each tracked market got here in beneath $600K.

The hole in opposition to Kalshi’s sports activities markets stays substantial. For comparability, Kalshi’s prime market this week (UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira) did $17.9M, roughly 34x the Polymarket US chief. With 354 energetic markets and buying and selling class rollout coming alongside slowly, Polymarket US remains to be in early phases.

Polymarket US weekly snapshot (March 2-8)

Metric	March 2-8
Volume	$5.9M
Active markets	354
Open curiosity	$884.4K
Top market	Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
Top market quantity	$532.9K

Polymarket US Top 10 markets by quantity, final 7 days

Section 3: Full platform quantity comparability

Total tracked prediction market quantity for the week of March 2–8 got here in at $5.89B throughout all platforms, fractionally beneath the prior week’s $5.92B (-0.4% WoW). The near-flat headline masks a big reordering within the tier beneath Kalshi and Polymarket: Opinion Markets fell 57.0% to $155.8M, predict.enjoyable dropped 55.4% to $77.2M, and Overtime declined 10.7% to $3.9M.

Crypto.com, simply added to Dune Analytics tracking, was the standout gainer amongst smaller platforms ($122.6M, +15.0% WoW).

Full platform quantity comparability (week of Mar. 2–8)

All tracked platforms: Volume, transactions, market share WoW (week of March 2-8)

Platform	Volume	WoW Δ	Transactions	WoW Δ	Market share
Kalshi	$2,858.1M	+4.7%	20,041,183	+7.0%	48.5%
Polymarket	$2,496.4M	+4.0%	26,260,409	+6.6%	42.4%
Crypto.com	$122.6M	+15.0%	—	—	2.1%
Opinion Markets†	$155.8M	-57.0%	105,658	-47.7%	2.6%
predict.enjoyable†	$77.2M	-55.4%	111,958	-58.1%	1.3%
Other*	$175.9M	+26.9%**	730,940	—	3.0%
Overtime	$3.9M	-10.7%	13,059	-12.2%	0.1%
Total	$5,889.8M	-0.4%	47,263,207	+6.5%	100%

†See methodology word beneath.
*Crypto.com transactions included in Other. **Other WoW comparability displays composition change: Crypto.com was named individually starting Feb. 23.
Source: Dune Analytics, week ending March 8, 2026.

Smaller platform highlights

Opinion Markets: Opinion shed greater than half its quantity in a single week, falling from $362.5M to $155.8M. That continues a five-week slide from the platform’s $1.24B peak in early February, a drop of 87% over the interval. Transaction counts adopted the identical route, falling almost 48% WoW to 105,658. We have beforehand flagged issues with Opinion’s volume figures, that are possible inflated by wash buying and selling and different components.

predict.enjoyable: predict.enjoyable additionally declined sharply, dropping 55.4% to $77.2M after averaging roughly $180M over the prior three weeks. The pullback comes with out an apparent single-event rationalization, pointing extra towards a normalization from elevated ranges than any platform-specific improvement.

Crypto.com: The one notable mover within the different route: Crypto.com grew 15.0% to $122.6M, and was only recently added to the Dune dataset as a standalone platform.

Note on Opinion Markets and predict.enjoyable volumes:

Opinion Markets and predict.enjoyable are included in our tracked universe for completeness, however ongoing evaluation of their on-chain metrics suggests their reported volumes could also be considerably inflated by wash buying and selling or different non-organic exercise. We advocate treating their figures as directional indicators quite than dependable quantity indicators, and specializing in Kalshi and Polymarket for market-wide context. We’ll replace this word if the methodological image adjustments.

Category breakdown: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

The most notable improvement contained in the Kalshi class knowledge this week was the explosion in Exotics quantity. The class surged 151.4% WoW from $152.3M to $382.9M, leaping previous crypto ($258.6M) to grow to be Kalshi’s second-largest class behind sports activities. The Exotics classification on Kalshi captures non-standard contract varieties — parlays and mixture markets — making the surge a sign about how bettors are utilizing the platform quite than what they’re betting on. Sports quantity dipped modestly to $1.99B (-4.1% WoW), its second consecutive weekly decline after the post-Super Bowl peak. Politics fell 43.5% to $65.2M, after a trading spike the previous week on the Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran market.

Politics additionally dropped WoW at Polymarket. After topping $666M the earlier week on the again of Khamenei-driven contract exercise, politics dropped 23.7% to $508.7M, nonetheless elevated by historic requirements, however beneath the prior week’s spike. Sports surged 23.1% to $1.02B as Polymarket processed important quantity throughout NBA and soccer markets, a significant leap that pushed sports activities above $1B for the primary time in our tracked dataset for Polymarket alone. Crypto held almost flat at $723.7M (+2.0%), whereas the Trump-specific class climbed 35.0% to $157.0M.

The cross-platform comparability this week reveals the 2 platforms converging on sports activities whereas persevering with to diverge in all places else. Sports mixed for $3.01B — $1.99B on Kalshi, $1.02B on Polymarket — making it the biggest single class throughout each platforms by a large margin. Crypto is the second-largest mixed class at $982.3M ($723.7M Polymarket, $258.6M Kalshi), with Polymarket holding an almost 3:1 benefit in crypto quantity. Politics presents the same imbalance: Polymarket’s $508.7M dwarfs Kalshi’s $65.2M, a niche per the person base variations between the 2 platforms.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket Category Comparison (March 2-8)

Biggest class movers WoW for Kalshi and Polymarket

Top markets: Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi’s prime market listing this week was virtually totally NBA, with one notable exception: UFC 326 (Holloway vs. Oliveira) cleared $17.9M to take the highest spot, the primary non-NBA market to guide the Kalshi board in latest weeks. Six separate NBA video games adopted in positions 2-6, led by LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs ($15.8M) and LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets ($12.9M), with Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets ($12.6M) and Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks ($11.6M) additionally clearing $10M.

Two T20 Cricket World Cup (worldwide cricket) markets appeared at positions six and 9 — WC Semifinals: England vs India ($11.2M) and the T20 Final: India vs New Zealand ($9.4M) — signaling rising traction for cricket markets on the platform.

Polymarket’s prime markets have been outlined by the Khamenei cluster. The “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by Feb 28?” contract settled at $118.7M to guide all Polymarket markets for the week. Two associated Iran contracts — “Khamenei out by March 31?” ($46.4M) and “Next Supreme Leader of Iran?” ($34.2M) — mixed with the Feb 28 marketplace for roughly $199M throughout the three, making Khamenei the week’s single most-traded matter throughout all the pattern.

The Fed Chair nomination market (Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? — resolved to Kevin Warsh, $77.3M) and the March Fed decision market ($91.4M, 98% pricing no reduce) rounded out the highest 5. The EPL Winner, 2026 NBA Champion, and 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee markets all carried significant open curiosity, signaling continued long-horizon engagement.

Kalshi Top 15 markets by quantity, final 7 days

Polymarket Top 15 markets by quantity, final 7 days

Forward look

Selection Sunday is March 15. That single date has traditionally been an enormous sportsbook quantity driver — not due to the video games, however due to the bracket. March Madness futures, first-round sport strains, and team-specific props usually generate a surge of exercise within the 48 hours following bracket reveal, with quantity sustaining by means of the primary weekend of play (March 19–22). The NCAA Tournament represents the one occasion on the sports activities calendar that constantly rivals Super Bowl week when it comes to sheer market rely and betting exercise. While World Cup trading and primary elections will even deliver important quantity spikes within the coming months, March Madness is the subsequent main driver.

The macro calendar provides to the setup. The Federal Reserve meets March 18–19, with Polymarket’s March fed determination market already pricing a 98% chance of no reduce and carrying $23.1M in open curiosity. That market will see elevated exercise as the assembly approaches and will settle shortly after the announcement. The mixture of a serious sports activities occasion and a high-profile macro decision in the identical 10-day window creates a pure basis for a quantity surge. Expect the newest mixed Ok+P document set this week to be eclipsed quickly, and steadily within the coming weeks.

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