Prediction Markets Record All-Time High $4.9B Volume to End 2025
The 12 months began with a whisper and ended with a roar for prediction markets as mixed notional quantity surpassed $4.9 billion for the week of Dec. 29, led by Opinion Labs, Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.
As 2026 begins, the info suggests prediction markets are comfortably out of their exploratory section and right into a full-on progress dash, posting report notional buying and selling volumes with every new week. Meanwhile, onchain prediction change Opinion has turn into inconceivable to ignore. Opinion posted $1.81 billion in notional quantity to shut out the 12 months because the market chief, although Kalshi and Polymarket stay essentially the most related platforms for institutional partnerships and mainstream adoption.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket additionally publish all-time high weekly volumes to shut out 2025: Kalshi $1.71B (Dec. 22-28) and Polymarket $1,45B (Dec. 29 – Jan. 4).
Weekly notional quantity snapshot (Dec. 29 – Jan. 4):
| Platform | Weekly Notional Volume | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Opinion | $1,809,464,856 | 36.90% |
| Kalshi | $1,576,002,268 | 32.10% |
| Polymarket | $1,445,093,136 | 29.40% |
| Predict | $71,754,844 | 1.50% |
| Myriad | $2,786,513 | <0.1% |
| Limitless | $2,662,169 | <0.1% |
| Total Notional Volume | $4,907,763,787 | 100% |
The information, originating from Dune Data Dashboards and tracked by DeFiRate.com, consists of prime onchain platforms in addition to the main non-blockchain change, Kalshi.
While Opinion led the week in uncooked notional quantity, Kalshi and Polymarket collectively accounted for over 61% of whole weekly quantity. A further data dive reveals some key nuances throughout platforms, highlighted under. Note that these figures mirror information from solely the platforms at the moment tracked by Dune.
Key prediction market quantity takeaways to cap off 2025
In the ultimate 5 weeks of 2025, weekly whole market quantity constantly ranged between $3.8B–$4.9B, with every subsequent week outpacing the earlier one. Some takeaways:
- Prediction markets are sustaining multi-billion-dollar weekly quantity (above $3B) and are in a interval of sustained progress (a minimum of by way of the NFL season)
- Polymarket and Kalshi ended the 12 months posting all-time high weekly notional quantity
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket stays the core rivalry for institutional and retail adoption, and the 2 platforms are the clear leaders in weekly transactions
- Kalshi quantity stays dominated by sports activities, whereas Polymarket derives the vast majority of its quantity from a broader vary of market classes and international participation
- New entrants can seize significant quantity share with out displacing incumbents
Kalshi and Polymarket fluctuated by which led week-to-week, with Opinion Labs establishing itself as a top-three platform rapidly after launching, a minimum of when it comes to whole notional quantity. Opinion took its first market lead the week of Nov. 10 and has been among the many prime three in each week since. Still, a take a look at weekly customers and variety of transactions exhibits Kalshi and Polymarket nonetheless effectively forward.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi additionally not too long ago notched all-time high weekly volumes:
- Kalshi ATH weekly notional quantity: $1,707,747,150 (Dec. 22-28)
- Polymarket ATH weekly notional quantity: $1,445,093,136 (Dec. 29 – Jan. 4)
Weekly customers
While Opinion Labs outpaced Polymarket’s weekly notional quantity by 25% throughout the week of Dec. 29, Polymarket had 217% extra weekly customers (214,962 vs. 67,913). Note: Kalshi is excluded from this chart.
Meanwhile, weekly transactions additionally present Kalshi and Polymarket as the 2 runaway market co-leaders:
- Kalshi: 9,502,802
- Polymarket: 8,992,527
- Opinion: 1,785,754
Open curiosity
Open curiosity comparisons paint the same image, with Kalshi and Polymarket greater than 2.5X larger than open curiosity on Opinion’s onchain change.
Neither platform established a decisive breakout lead
The rise of Opinion Labs
Launched in closed beta in September earlier than officially debuting on the BNB blockchain in October, Opinion Labs rapidly rose to a top-three volume-driver, first overtaking Kalshi and Polymarket in weekly notional quantity the week of Nov. 10, 2025.
Proud of our portfolio venture @opinionlabsxyz hitting a serious milestone: $10B in whole buying and selling quantity + $100M open curiosity in simply 54 days.
The fastest-growing prediction market on report.Opinion (orange) has even briefly overtaken Polymarket (blue) in nationwide quantity share… https://t.co/CHfpD5myPX pic.twitter.com/5lQpcTk9RI
— KuCoin Ventures (@KuCoinVentures) December 30, 2025
Opinion’s change is structurally distinct in consumer intent and market design, and based mostly available on the market information, consists of a smaller variety of customers with a lot larger common transactions in contrast to Kalshi and Polymarket. While Kalshi and Polymarket stay essentially the most institutionally related platforms, Opinion’s speedy progress exhibits there may be room for brand new entrants to drive significant quantity with out essentially reducing considerably into the expansion of established platforms.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket in contrast
Despite ending behind Opinion Labs to end out the 12 months, the Kalshi vs. Polymarket dynamic remained extraordinarily tight and aggressive within the last stretch of 2025. Outside of Opinion Labs and dozens of smaller onchain and centralized platforms throughout the prediction markets house, Kalshi and Polymarket proceed to command essentially the most mainstream consideration, buying and selling quantity and market liquidity.
While Polymarket remains to be engaged on absolutely rolling out its US-facing prediction market change, its international onchain platform continues to develop to new heights (alongside Kalshi).
From the week of Dec. 29, Kalshi tallied $131 million extra (+9.1%) in notional quantity in contrast to Polymarket. Here’s a comparability of the 2 platforms for the week:
| Metric | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Notional Volume (Weekly) | ~$1,576,002,268 | ~$1,445,093,136 |
| Active Markets (Open) | ~153,350 | ~19,886 |
| Weekly Transactions | ~7,578,772 | ~7,438,868 |
| Open Interest (USD) | ~$355.9M | ~$278.5M |
It was one other week the place Kalshi retained a slender lead in notional quantity, however the $131 million distinction is minimal contemplating the dimensions of each exchanges.
Also, Kalshi’s weekly transactions and open curiosity is unfold throughout many extra lively markets (153K in contrast to Polymarket’s 20K). With a lot of its whole quantity and open curiosity concentrated in sports activities markets, a lot of Kalshi’s open markets in different classes stay skinny in liquidity.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi prime classes for Dec. 29 – Jan. 4
Sports, crypto and politics proceed to dominate in quantity throughout platforms, with sports activities a way more core driver for Kalshi (in contrast to Polymarket). Compare the notional quantity throughout prime classes for Kalshi vs. Polymarket under:
Sports markets are characterised by high liquidity and frequent settlement cycles, serving to to drive up Kalshi’s quantity and transaction numbers throughout peak sports activities seasons. Based on the sports activities calendar, upcoming dips could be anticipated the week earlier than the Super Bowl when there aren’t any NFL video games, and the interval between the Super Bowl and March Madness (faculty basketball) tipoff.
While sports activities additionally dominate at Polymarket, the platform has a way more even distribution throughout sports activities, crypto, politics, tradition and macro monetary/financial markets. See the total class breakdowns for Kalshi and Polymarket under.
Sports nonetheless dominate at Kalshi: Top classes Dec. 29 – Jan. 4
| Category | Notional Volume (USD) | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1,831,611,912 | 92.50% |
| Crypto | $42,341,448 | 2.10% |
| Politics | $30,505,124 | 1.50% |
| Climate & Weather | $24,455,211 | 1.20% |
| Entertainment | $13,797,003 | 0.70% |
| Mentions | $13,593,521 | 0.70% |
| Science & Technology | $6,321,966 | 0.30% |
| Economics | $5,737,084 | 0.30% |
| Financials | $5,093,860 | 0.30% |
| Other (World, Health, Social, Transportation, Companies, Elections, and many others.) | $3,755,176 | <0.2% |
| Total | $1,978,665,806 | 100% |
More even class combine on Polymarket: Top classes Dec. 29 – Jan. 4
| Category | Notional Volume (USD) | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | $536,138,902 | 37.10% |
| Crypto | $435,177,174 | 30.10% |
| Politics | $269,258,920 | 18.60% |
| Culture | $107,676,436 | 7.50% |
| Trump | $68,372,072 | 4.70% |
| Economy | $11,567,584 | 0.80% |
| Tech | $9,545,334 | 0.70% |
| Weather | $5,793,255 | 0.40% |
| Other (Esports, World, Earnings, Celebrities) | $324,447 | <0.1% |
| Total | $1,445,093,137 | 100% |
As extra rivals proceed pouring into the prediction market panorama, count on the whole total quantity and variety of customers to proceed to balloon with variety of platforms till a interval of consolidation units in.
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