Sports Events Push Prediction Market Trading to Record Highs in June

Notional quantity on prediction markets climbed sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% from the earlier quarter.

CoinGecko discovered that the momentum accelerated in June, when month-to-month notional quantity surged to a document $50.7 billion, which represented a 92% enhance from the typical month-to-month quantity of $27.5 billion posted over the prior 5 months.

Sports Drive June Surge

In its newest report, CoinGecko attributed the spike to a packed calendar of main sporting occasions starting in late May, such because the UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. The sports-driven exercise was notably evident on Polymarket, the place sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of buying and selling quantity in June, as opposed to 40% in January.

Despite this enhance in sports activities buying and selling, Polymarket’s market share declined quarter-over-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. On the opposite hand, Kalshi has managed to broaden its lead after growing its share from 42.4% in the primary quarter to virtually 58.9% in the second.

Meanwhile, Rothera, the Robinhood/Susquehanna International Group three way partnership launched in May, rapidly climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional quantity.

Wall Street and Big Tech Into the Race

Prediction markets gained momentum. Last month, Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets platform that includes securities-based binary possibility contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts, buying and selling below the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already accessible by Interactive Brokers, whereas Charles Schwab is predicted to add entry in the approaching months.

Cboe additionally stated extra brokerage companies are doubtless to help the merchandise over time. The contracts permit merchants to take a “sure” or “no” place on whether or not the Mini-S&P 500 Index will settle at or above a specified stage at expiration.

Additionally, the New York Times reported that Meta is creating a standalone prediction markets app referred to as Arena, the place customers would predict real-world outcomes utilizing factors as a substitute of actual cash. According to the report, the experimental venture is a high precedence for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and will finally broaden to real-money betting. The initiative follows Meta’s earlier Forecast app, a points-based prediction platform launched in 2020 through the COVID-19 pandemic earlier than being discontinued in 2022.

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