Super Bowl Fuels Kalshi to Record $2.8B Week as Prediction Markets Hold Near $6.3B
Total notional quantity throughout tracked prediction exchanges got here in at $6.26 billion for the week ending Feb. 8, down simply 0.9% from the prior week’s $6.32 billion all-time high. That makes 4 consecutive weeks above $6 billion and 6 straight weeks of all-time or near-all-time exercise.
The huge quantity story of the week is Kalshi surging 27.3% to $2.80 billion, its largest single week on file, pushed by buying and selling exercise on Super Bowl 60 between the Seahawks and Patriots. Polymarket pulled again 7.9% to $1.92 billion, and Opinion fell 28.7% to $1.24 billion, its lowest weekly complete since early January.
DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker, which aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket information in actual time, reveals the 2 platforms combining for $4.7 billion in weekly notional quantity throughout 33.4 million transactions, with Kalshi edging Polymarket 53% to 47%.
The broader all-platform image, tracked by Dune, reveals open curiosity throughout all tracked exchanges approaching the $1 billion mark at $948 million as of Feb. 6, with Kalshi ($468M), Polymarket ($346M), and Opinion ($112M) accounting for the overwhelming majority.
Kalshi’s Super Bowl surge reverses the convergence pattern
Last week’s headline was Kalshi and Polymarket reaching near-parity. This week, Kalshi flipped the script.
After Kalshi’s share of the two-platform mixed quantity fell from 57.7% (week of Jan. 4) to a low of 51.4% (week of Feb. 1), Super Bowl week snapped the pattern. Kalshi’s $2.80 billion towards Polymarket’s $1.92 billion offers it a 59.4% share, its highest but.
The divergence is pushed nearly completely by sports activities. Kalshi processed $2.19 billion in sports activities quantity alone this week (78.3% of complete alternate quantity), whereas Polymarket’s sports activities determine was $757 million. Strip sports activities out, and the image seems to be completely different: Polymarket led non-sports quantity at $1.16 billion to Kalshi’s $606 million. That non-sports hole continues to widen.
Prediction platform rankings (week of Feb. 2-8)
| Platform | Volume | Share | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2.80B | 44.7% | +27.3% |
| Polymarket | $1.92B | 30.6% | −7.9% |
| Opinion | $1.24B | 19.8% | −28.7% |
| predict.enjoyable | $215.7M | 3.4% | +24.0% |
| Limitless | $68.9M | 1.1% | −33.9% |
| Myriad | $11.4M | 0.2% | +40.7% |
| ForecastEx | $5.8M | 0.1% | −47.3% |
| Overtime | $4.7M | 0.1% | −17.5% |
| Total | $6.26B | −0.9% |
predict.enjoyable was the standout amongst smaller platforms, climbing 24% to $215.7 million and widening its lead as the clear fourth-place alternate. Limitless gave again a piece of its current good points, falling 33.9% after an 82% surge the week prior. Opinion’s 28.7% WoW drop to $1.24 billion is its lowest weekly quantity since early January and pushes it firmly into third, nicely behind the Kalshi-Polymarket pair.
Super Bowl 60 quantity hits $1.3 billion on the sport alone
Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets processed greater than $900 million in buying and selling quantity in accordance to our information monitoring, together with $500,171,547 simply on the sport itself. Compared to final yr’s $27.0 million on the identical market (sport winner), it’s a ~18.5x year-over-year soar for Kalshi.
Polymarket’s Super Bowl sport markets reached $749.12 million ($704.1 million on Super Bowl champion futures market; $55.26 million on a single-game market), per our monitoring. Combined, prediction market Super Bowl quantity on the sport alone exceeded $1.3 billion, placing it inside hanging distance of the state-regulated sportsbook business’s estimated $1.78 billion in Super Bowl deal with.
Apart from the sport strains, the primary classes driving practically $400 million in Super Bowl quantity on Kalshi have been Bad Bunny’s first-song market at $113.5 million, Super Bowl MVP ($52.2 million), and a slew of common novelty props together with what manufacturers will promote in a business ($72.2 million). Polymarket’s quantity was concentrated in its long-dated championship futures pool, with comparatively modest game-day exercise. Our pre-kickoff snapshot confirmed a 95/5 Kalshi-to-Polymarket cut up on 24-hour Super Bowl trading volume heading into the sport.
The complete Super Bowl quantity, whereas spectacular, would have been a lot greater had the sport truly been shut. In-game buying and selling ramps up in shut and back-and-forth video games, which was not the case on this defensive battle dominated by the Seahawks.
Weekly transactions surge to 34.6 million
Weekly transactions throughout all tracked platforms throughout Super Bowl week jumped 21.8% to 34.6 million, a brand new all-time high. Kalshi led transactions this week at 17.9 million (51.7%), flipping the prior week’s order, whereas Polymarket contributed 15.6 million (45.0%). The surge aligns with Super Bowl engagement: extra merchants, extra frequent exercise, and certain a wave of informal contributors coming into by the most important sports activities occasion of the yr.
Opinion’s 608,906 transactions towards $1.24 billion in quantity continues to underscore its unusually giant common commerce measurement of roughly $2,038 per transaction, in contrast to $157 at Kalshi and $123 at Polymarket.
Polymarket reported 300,047 weekly lively customers, down from 323,525 within the earlier week however nonetheless far forward of the sphere. Opinion trailed at 67,804, with Limitless (11,188), predict.enjoyable (7,564), Myriad (1,475), and Overtime (561) rounding out the group. Kalshi doesn’t publicly report weekly person counts on this dataset.
Kalshi class breakdown
Kalshi’s category-level information reveals $2.80 billion in complete weekly quantity, with sports activities and leisure combining for 85.7% of all exercise.
The leisure explosion is the Super Bowl story. Kalshi’s leisure class, which incorporates halftime present props, broadcast markets, and celebrity-adjacent outcomes, surged from $29.4 million to $207.5 million in a single week as Super Bowl LX dominated the cultural dialog. Sports quantity additionally climbed 20.3% to $2.19 billion, recovering from the prior week’s bye-week dip and pushing Kalshi to its file weekly complete.
On the flip facet, politics gave again many of the prior week’s 214% surge, falling 39.6% to $89.2 million. The authorities shutdown that started Jan. 31 had pushed a spike in political contract exercise, however as the week progressed, that urgency light. Economics took the most important hit at −58.5%, falling to $6.6 million as the FOMC positioning that drove the prior week’s surge cooled forward of the March assembly.
Polymarket class breakdown
| Category | Volume | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sports | $756.6M | 39.5% |
| Crypto | $540.7M | 28.2% |
| Politics | $382.6M | 20.0% |
| Trump | $160.7M | 8.4% |
| Economy | $27.5M | 1.4% |
| Tech | $16.9M | 0.9% |
| Culture | $16.2M | 0.8% |
| Weather | $10.4M | 0.5% |
| Other | $3.7M | 0.2% |
Polymarket’s distribution tells a special story than Kalshi’s. No single class accounts for greater than 40% of complete quantity. Crypto price markets are a real energy with $540.7 million in weekly quantity, practically 3.5x Kalshi’s crypto quantity, pushed by Bitcoin worth markets, ETF circulate contracts, and altcoin hypothesis. Political markets at $382.6 million equally dwarf Kalshi’s $89.2 million, with Polymarket’s international person base offering deep liquidity on U.S. coverage and geopolitical occasions.
The Trump category at $160.7 million can be price flagging. Polymarket separates Trump-specific contracts from its broader politics class, and the quantity there’s largely pushed by government motion markets, tariff hypothesis, and appointment-related contracts quite than conventional partisan election betting.
Head-to-head class comparability: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Kalshi’s sports activities dominance is well-established, however Polymarket’s non-sports lead continues to widen.
*Politics + Trump mixed
Polymarket processed practically twice the non-sports quantity this week at $1.16 billion versus Kalshi’s $606 million. In crypto alone, Polymarket handles 3.5x what Kalshi does. In politics (together with Trump-related contracts), Polymarket ran 6.1x Kalshi’s quantity.
What to watch this week
Watch for the anticipated post-Super Bowl correction. Kalshi’s $2.80 billion week was constructed on $2.19 billion in sports activities and $207.5 million in leisure, classes that may each deflate sharply with out the NFL. The subsequent few weeks will check whether or not NBA, school basketball, and non-football sports activities can maintain something shut to the quantity Kalshi has been posting since September.
Crypto.com’s OG app, which launched Feb. 3 on CFTC-regulated infrastructure, provides one other competitor to the combo. Early quantity information isn’t within the Dune dashboards but, however the $500 sign-up promotion might pull exercise from present platforms within the close to time period.
Prediction markets are coming into a transitional window. The NFL engine is off, election season hasn’t ramped but, and the following main macro catalyst (March 18 FOMC) continues to be over 5 weeks out. How platforms carry out on this quieter stretch will say quite a bit about whether or not the expansion trajectory is structural or event-dependent, however more than likely it’s a mixture of each.
Volume information sourced from DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker and Dune Analytics prediction market dashboards. DeFi Rate tracks Kalshi and Polymarket in actual time throughout quantity, transactions, open curiosity, and class breakdowns. Broader platform information together with Opinion, predict.enjoyable, Limitless, Myriad, ForecastEx, and Overtime is compiled from Dune.
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