The Bitcoin Playbook To Know: Step 4 Says A Crash Is Coming, But Where’s The Bottom?
Bitcoin has adopted its current script before. According to at least one crypto analyst, it could be doing so once more, and if historical past holds, the following transfer is just not upward.
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has outlined a six-step framework on X that locations BTC’s present value motion instantly onto the construction of the 2021 market cycle. Three steps have already been accomplished. The fourth, he says, is subsequent, and it includes one other Bitcoin value crash.
Bitcoin Is Now At The Most Important Stage Of The Playbook
Merlijn’s weekly candlestick timeframe chart divides Bitcoin’s earlier cycle into six phases: distribution, small consolidation, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, after which the ultimate rally. In the 2021 part of the chart, BTC first shaped a distribution vary close to the cycle prime earlier than getting into a smaller consolidation, then a redistribution section, and at last a deeper accumulation zone after the key bear market breakdown.
The analyst is of the notion that the identical construction is now enjoying out once more. Distribution, he stated, has already occurred. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025 earlier than turning decrease. Since that peak, Bitcoin’s value has been declining in bear market value motion.
The small consolidation section that adopted the distribution prime has additionally been accomplished, and Bitcoin’s value motion since late January is all within the redistribution section. This caveat is why BTC is presently in an important a part of the technical setup. The subsequent projection primarily based on the setup is just not one other instant rally section, however a crash to an accumulation vary a lot decrease than present costs.
The $78,000 Line That Changes Everything
Merlijn positioned that potential accumulation zone between $45,000 and $59,000. This would suggest that Bitcoin nonetheless has one main draw back leg left if the 2021-style construction continues to play out.
However, Merlijn’s evaluation carries an fascinating situation. If BTC holds $78,000, Step 4 is skipped totally, and the cycle advances on to re-accumulation and finally the key run. If $78,000 breaks, the $45,000 to $59,000 accumulation vary turns into the following vacation spot earlier than any actual bounce. Therefore, the strongest model of the bullish case could be Bitcoin closing a number of weeks above $78,000 and forcing the Bitcoin value to skip the deeper accumulation section.
That stage is now underneath direct strain. BTC(*4*) $77,000 value stage on May 18, however it’s now again to buying and selling round $77,500 on the time of writing. This means a drop to $59,000 would characterize a decline of about 23.8%, whereas a fall to $45,000 would mark a deeper correction of 42% from the present value.
