Trump SOTU Speech Generated $11.97M in Volume, Kalshi Hourly Breakdown

Kalshi’s SOTU point out markets opened on Jan. 9 with 25 contracts and stored including by speech day, ending at 55. By the time Trump walked into the chamber on Feb. 24, merchants had already put $2.50 million to work positioning throughout all the pieces from “Crypto / Bitcoin” to “Discombobulator.”

Then Trump’s speech ran 107 minutes — the longest in fashionable historical past — and the floodgates opened. Another $9.47 million poured in on speech day alone, 79% of the occasion’s lifetime complete, with $2.76 million of that touchdown in a single hour. Here’s how the amount broke down and what resolved the place.

The full image

The occasion generated $11.97 million in lifetime quantity throughout 391,165 trades, making it essentially the most closely traded single-speech prediction market occasion on document. At peak, it carried 17.7 million contracts in open curiosity throughout all 55 markets.

Contracts launched in three waves: 27 in January masking perennial Trump phrases like Trillion, Crypto/Bitcoin, and Drill Baby Drill; 18 extra in February because the speech approached; and a remaining batch of 10 on the afternoon of Feb. 24 itself, simply hours earlier than the tackle.

These figures cowl solely Kalshi’s point out markets. It doesn’t embody Kalshi’s separate attendance markets ($6.62 million), speech period brackets ($1.45 million), or Polymarket’s parallel SOTU contracts, which collectively pushed complete cross-platform SOTU quantity previous $17 million.

71% of speech day quantity traded between 8 and 11 PM

The $9.47 million in speech-day quantity cut up dramatically between the morning and night. Pre-noon buying and selling (12:00 AM–11:59 AM EST) accounted for simply $584,138 in quantity throughout 20,134 trades — roughly 6% of the day’s complete. The remaining $8.89 million and 267,065 trades got here after midday, with quantity accelerating sharply because the 9:00 PM speech time approached.

The common commerce measurement held comparatively regular throughout each classes: $29 per commerce earlier than midday versus $33 per commerce after.

The three-hour window from 8:00–11:00 PM — bracketing the speech itself — accounted for $6.36 million in quantity, or 71% of the post-noon complete.

The single busiest hour was 9:00–10:00 PM EST (the primary hour of the speech), which generated $2.76 million in quantity throughout 85,622 trades and added 3.4 million contracts in open curiosity. That one hour alone represented 31% of all post-noon quantity.

The 8:00–9:00 PM hour noticed $1.69 million in quantity and 43,701 trades. The 10:00–11:00 PM hour added one other $1.91 million throughout 55,934 trades. By 11:00 PM, exercise dropped to simply $33,023.

A observe on concentrated quantity: Trillion and 250 each noticed the overwhelming majority of their quantity arrive in one or two hours through large-sized orders ($390–$491/commerce vs. the $33 occasion common). Without the 8–10 PM window, each would rank in the underside half of the leaderboard by quantity.

Nearly a 50/50 cut up between decision and lifelong greenback worth

Of the 55 contracts, 29 resolved YES and 26 resolved NO. By lifetime greenback quantity, the cut up was practically even: $5.94 million on YES contracts versus $6.03 million on NO contracts.

Somali / Somalia led all contracts with $867,839 in lifetime quantity (23,462 trades) and resolved YES. It was additionally the highest contract by contract quantity at 2.1 million. Trump devoted an prolonged part of the speech to fraud allegations in Minnesota’s Somali neighborhood, claiming members had “pillaged an estimated $19 billion from the American taxpayer” and calling them “pirates who ransacked Minnesota.” Federal prosecutors have charged 98 folks in reference to the fraud, with the DOJ estimating losses nearer to $9 billion. The remarks drew one of many evening’s most heated exchanges — Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) shouted back from the floor, calling the president a liar, and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) joined in. The contract’s open curiosity peaked at 1.01 million, third-highest in the occasion.

Fake News ranked second with $603,228 in lifetime quantity throughout 26,422 trades — the best commerce depend of any contract — and resolved NO. Despite being certainly one of Trump’s most well-known catchphrases, it went unstated throughout Tuesday evening’s 107-minute address.

SAVE Act positioned third at $587,461 and resolved NO. One of 10 contracts that didn’t open till the afternoon of Feb. 24, it generated its whole quantity in below 14 hours. Trump explicitly referred to as on Congress to move the SAVE America Act, a voter ID invoice that had cleared the House however not the Senate, telling lawmakers to “approve the SAVE America Act” and claiming election dishonest was “rampant.” Despite the direct point out, the contract resolved NO — the phrase as listed on Kalshi was not spoken verbatim. The contract noticed the occasion’s most dramatic open curiosity ramp: from 6,078 contracts at midday to a peak of 741,176 — a 12,094% enhance.

Crypto / Bitcoin got here fourth at $548,100 in lifetime quantity, with a 3rd of that ($188,036) accrued earlier than speech day — one of many largest pre-positioning swimming pools in the occasion. It resolved NO. Despite Trump’s well-documented pro-crypto stance, digital property went completely unmentioned on Tuesday evening. The contract carried the occasion’s second-largest open curiosity at 1.03 million.

Highest Inflation rounded out the highest 5 with $541,092 in lifetime quantity and resolved NO. Trump did tackle inflation at size, claiming his administration had driven core inflation to its lowest level in five years, however the particular phrase “highest inflation” didn’t seem in his remarks.

Just exterior the highest 5, Trillion ($400,337, YES) and Cartel ($389,943, YES) each broke into important quantity. Trump spent a good portion of the speech on his administration’s cartel enforcement, referencing the recent killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. He touted his designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and the declaration of fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction. Cartel’s open curiosity grew 2,299% from 34,402 to 825,121.

Ethereum was a notable outlier: it carried the occasion’s largest open curiosity at 1.50 million contracts however generated solely $163,128 in USD quantity — the widest hole between OI and greenback quantity in the occasion. Like Crypto/Bitcoin, it resolved NO.

Among lower-probability contracts, Discombobulator (NO) drew $239,734 in lifetime quantity and peaked at 498,169 OI. Ballroom (NO) generated $332,120 throughout 16,713 trades. Martial Law (NO) — one of many speech-day openers — peaked at 179,319 contracts regardless of simply $40,149 in quantity.

The larger image

A yr in the past, betting on what a president would possibly say throughout a speech wasn’t an actual market. Now it’s an $11.97 million occasion with 391,000 trades and open curiosity rivaling mid-tier sports activities props. The SOTU point out markets turned a political speech right into a dwell buying and selling session — 85,622 trades in a single hour as merchants priced each sentence in actual time.

This is the place prediction markets are headed. Every main political occasion — debates, press conferences, coverage bulletins — now has a liquid market connected to it. The 2026 midterms are eight months away, and if a single speech can generate this sort of quantity, the cycle forward goes to be one thing else completely.

Volume information aggregated from Kalshi occasion contract KXTRUMPMENTION-26FEB28. Lifetime figures symbolize all buying and selling exercise from contract open by decision. Open curiosity figures symbolize contract-level positions, not dollar-denominated publicity.

The publish Trump SOTU Speech Generated $11.97M in Volume, Kalshi Hourly Breakdown appeared first on DeFi Rate.