Wall Street still says Bitcoin can hit $100,000, the market is starting to doubt it

Standard Chartered maintained its name for Bitcoin to attain $100,000 by Dec. 31, even after the cryptocurrency briefly fell under $60,000 final week for the first time since October 2024.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the financial institution’s world head of digital property analysis, referred to as the selloff “painful” however argued the bulk of promoting could also be over, including that traders might later view the zone as the shopping for alternative they wished.

With Bitcoin trading round $63,400, reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31 would require roughly a 57.8% upside over roughly 206 days, about 0.22% compounded day by day, or 7% monthly.

Bitcoin has matched that tempo earlier than, however the market has repriced the chance of it taking place once more.

What’s driving the harm

The selloff that took Bitcoin toward $60,000 was pushed by report ETF outflows, Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022, and compelled liquidations totaling $1.8 billion in a single session.

The package deal drove the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 12, leaving Bitcoin greater than 51% under its October 2025 all-time high, as US-traded spot ETFs shed roughly $4.4 billion in 13 consecutive outflow classes, whereas institutional cash rotated into AI shares.

Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC hit the market as a psychological shock, triggering a selloff that the measurement of the sale didn’t justify. Kendrick acknowledged the timing was unlucky however cited the firm’s historical past of shopping for again greater than it offered after every prior sale.

Strategy disclosed a brand new buy between Jun. 1 and Jun. 7, which Kendrick cited as proof that the aggressive shopping for sample he predicted had already begun.

The financial institution had reduce its year-end goal twice earlier than that reaffirmation, from $300,000 in December to $150,000 in January, then to $100,000 in February, making the Jun. 4 post-crash maintain its first since the drawdown accelerated.

Four circumstances

The path to $100,000 requires 4 issues to align, starting with ETF outflows not setting the marginal value. After a report 13-session outflow streak, flows turned barely constructive by early June, giving bulls a concrete reversal set off to monitor.

Strategy has to stay a purchaser, which the June buy helps, and regulatory progress on the CLARITY Act has to re-enter the institutional calculus.

The fourth factor is that Bitcoin has to reclaim its key pattern ranges: the 30-day transferring common close to $75,685 and the 200-day transferring common close to $78,840 characterize the technical threshold separating a crash restoration from a renewed uptrend.

Condition	Current sign	Bullish affirmation
ETF flows stabilize	Spot Bitcoin ETFs simply exited a 13-session outflow streak totaling roughly $4.4B	Multiple weeks of web inflows
Strategy stays a purchaser	Strategy offered 32 BTC, then disclosed a brand new June 1-7 buy	Continued purchases with out additional symbolic gross sales
Regulatory momentum returns	CLARITY Act progress is still unsure	Senate flooring scheduling or clearer market-structure path
Bitcoin reclaims pattern ranges	BTC stays under the 30-day MA close to $75,685 and 200-day MA close to $78,840	Sustained transfer above $75K-$79K

Grayscale has argued that the four-year cycle thesis will show improper on this period of institutional capital, with steadier inflows changing the previous boom-bust rhythm, a view that may help a quicker restoration than historic patterns suggest.

Fidelity’s analysts are break up, with some supporting the supercycle thesis and others, equivalent to macro director Jurrien Timmer, arguing that the conventional cycle sample stays intact.

Bernstein set a $150,000 year-end goal as just lately as Mar. 24 and referred to as the present drawdown the “weakest bear case in Bitcoin’s historical past,” sitting on the extra aggressive finish of the still-bullish spectrum, although the agency has not freshly reaffirmed that decision since the crash.

Citi’s base case sits above $100,000 even after a March goal discount, and its bull case runs to roughly $166,000, although reaching both quantity from $63,400 requires 76.7% and 162% upside, respectively, making Standard Chartered’s $100,000 the most defensible of the remaining institutional targets.

A cycle backside that comes too late

Cycle analysts monitoring the 2024 halving rhythm place the historic backside window at roughly day 900 after the halving.

With the present cycle at day 775, there are roughly 125 days earlier than that window opens, pointing to an October backside, with prior cycles suggesting a low in the $40,000s.

Under that timing, a hypothetical backside at $50,000 in October would require roughly 0.76% compounded day by day by means of Dec. 31 to attain $100,000, which is over thrice the day by day tempo implied by Standard Chartered’s present goal from right now’s price.

Prediction market merchants on Kalshi assign a 66% chance that Bitcoin will drop under $55,000 this 12 months and a 50% chance of sub-$50,000 costs.

A separate Kalshi market places the chance of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 this 12 months at 52%, a stage final seen in August 2024. Those odds replicate that capital rotating into AI shares, semiconductor ETFs, and high-profile IPOs could also be a long-lasting reallocation, with no apparent catalyst to pull it again into Bitcoin on a brief timeline.

A sustained break under the $60,000 flooring over a number of classes, producing decrease lows and decrease highs, would shift merchants’ focus towards the $50,000 space and the 200-week transferring common at $61,778, which Bitcoin touched final week for the first time since 2023.

The world regulatory backdrop sharpens that threat, as EU MiCA enforcement begins Jul. 1, after which crypto-asset service suppliers and not using a license should cease serving EU purchasers, eradicating a layer of regulatory optionality that had supplied some institutional cowl for holding the asset by means of uncertainty.

Where the chance stack sits

JPMorgan’s fair-value mannequin, constructed on a volatility-adjusted gold comparability, factors towards $170,000, although that estimate predates the crash and capabilities as long-term context slightly than a near-term value name.

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn reportedly trimmed his 2026 Bitcoin legislative passage estimate from 75% to 60% due to Senate calendar threat.

The ensuing chance stack is Standard Chartered at $100,000, Bernstein’s standing $150,000 goal, Citi’s lowered however still above $100,000 base case, and Kalshi’s markets pricing solely a 21% likelihood that Bitcoin crosses $100,000 earlier than January 2027.

Source / market	Signal	Interpretation
Standard Chartered	$100K by Dec. 31	Fresh post-crash reaffirmation
Citi base case	Above $100K	Reduced however still bullish
Bernstein	$150K	Standing goal, not freshly reaffirmed after crash
JPMorgan mannequin	$170K	Older fair-value context
Kalshi: BTC crosses $100K earlier than Jan. 2027	21%	Market costs $100K as doable, not possible
Kalshi: BTC under $55K this 12 months	66%	Traders still value draw back threat
Kalshi: BTC under $50K this 12 months	50%-52%	Drawdown threat stays central

That disconnect between analyst targets and market-priced outcomes is the most correct abstract of the place issues stand.

The $100,000 name has shifted from a bull market assumption to a stress check of whether or not ETF demand, Strategy shopping for, regulatory momentum, and macro reduction can overpower a broken tape earlier than the calendar runs out.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick is the solely main institutional voice to have explicitly reaffirmed $100,000 after Bitcoin’s crash under $60,000, with the subsequent decisive check sitting at whether or not the asset can reclaim $75,000 earlier than the four-year cycle’s projected backside window opens in October.

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