Key Takeaways ▸ Traders are closely positioning for 2028 regardless of unresolved 2026 midterms with $500M+ in notional quantity already in play. ▸ Early odds cluster round J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom, however a crowded discipline alerts fluidity. ▸ GOP candidates prime the board, however party-level markets nonetheless lean Democratic (~60%). Traders are already throwing…
Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi’s $3.91B weekly quantity (+27.8% WoW) vs. Polymarket’s $1.96B (+~4%) widens the hole to ~$2B. ▸ Kalshi now leads on each quantity and transactions: 20.2M trades vs. 19.2M, reversing a 25% Polymarket transaction lead six weeks in the past. ▸ Kalshi is 84.9% sports activities + exotics (with parlays at a document…
Key Takeaways ▸ Sixth Circuit denied Kalshi’s keep, permitting Ohio regulators to transfer ahead with penalties, together with a proposed $5M effective. ▸ The attraction is expedited, however the courtroom’s language indicators a doubtlessly robust path for Kalshi on preemption. ▸ Diverging rulings between circuits may arrange a broader federal showdown over prediction markets vs….
Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi and Polymarket priced a lean-Yes, shut race, matching the 51.5%–48.6% outcome. ▸ The new map may swing Virginia from 6–5 to 10–1 Democrat, a key increase for 2026 House management. ▸ Prediction markets successfully priced not simply the end result, however the margin and broader map influence in actual time. The…
Key Takeaways ▸ Markets see an actual flip alternative in Ohio’s Senate election: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted are pricing as a close to toss-up with Democrats barely favored (~58–59%). ▸ Kalshi flipped from a GOP edge (~76%) to a Democratic lean, signaling altering sentiment forward of November. ▸ Trading remains to be comparatively mild,…
Key Takeaways ▸ Markets see an actual flip alternative in Ohio’s Senate election: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted are pricing as a close to toss-up with Democrats barely favored (~58–59%). ▸ Kalshi flipped from a GOP edge (~76%) to a Democratic lean, signaling altering sentiment forward of November. ▸ Trading remains to be comparatively mild,…
Key Takeaways ▸ Prediction markets allow you to commerce the occasion itself relatively than a proxy, which means you may be proper about an consequence and really revenue, not like conventional hedges that may fail even when your thesis is right. ▸ From Citadel Securities eyeing market-making alternatives to dam trades within the $20–30M vary,…
Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi quantity alone jumped from $6.2M to $25M as merchants scramble to reprice the sector after Swalwell’s exit. ▸ Becerra is the brand new frontrunner, however removed from a lock, main at 41–43% after overtaking Steyer as frontrunner on Tuesday. ▸ Hilton is the race’s one consensus choose. Traders value him at…
Key Takeaways ▸ Polymarket is weighing a ~$400M increase at a $15B valuation, however hasn’t locked pricing as it debates timing vs. upside. ▸ Kalshi has surged to a ~$22B valuation after a number of speedy raises, widening the hole whereas pulling forward in buying and selling quantity. ▸ Valuations weigh progress vs. threat amid…
Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi ($3.06B) and Polymarket ($2.04B) each pulled again after report highs for week of April 13, primarily because of a lighter sports activities and political calendar. ▸ Kalshi attracts fewer, bigger bets (~$147 avg), whereas Polymarket sees extra smaller bets (~$95 avg), with transaction counts converging. ▸ Sports dominated Kalshi once more;…