Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi quantity plunged 49.5% WoW to $2.09B regardless of PGA Championship-driven exercise, slicing its mixed Okay+P share from 72.1% to 56.9%. ▸ Polymarket international held comparatively regular (-1.7% WoW to $1.58B) as FIFA World Cup and European soccer markets supported exercise. ▸ Polymarket US rebounded sharply, with taker quantity up 123.4% WoW…
The Louisiana Republican Senate major race stays a three-way battle heading into Saturday’s major, however prediction markets are nonetheless definitively suggesting incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy will see his tenure finish. The race has a lot of nationwide consideration, loads of drama, and a market that also refuses to purchase any incumbent benefit. While Cassidy enters Saturday’s…
Kalshi PGA Championship-related markets confirmed about $129.6 million in reside quantity as of this morning. The outright winner market accounted for about $110.4 million of that complete, whereas newly lively finishing-position, round-leader, scoring, class, head-to-head, and combo markets added the remaining. By comparability, Polymarket Global has about $1.37 million in outright occasion quantity, whereas Polymarket…
Pennsylvania’s third Congressional District Democratic main isn’t only a native House race anymore. It’s changed into the most popular early check of the occasion’s 2028 fault traces. Alexandria Octasio-Cortez is overtly championing progressive Rep. Chris Rabb whereas Gov. Josh Shapiro maneuvers behind the scenes to spice up state Sen. Sharif Street and block what Axios calls an “AOC‑backed progressive takeover.” Prediction markets…
Key Takeaways ▸ Moomoo plans to launch U.S. occasion contract buying and selling by means of Moomoo Financial Inc., which NFA data present was permitted May 1 as an NFA member, FCM and swap agency. ▸ The transfer would add one other scaled retail brokerage app to the prediction-market distribution race, although Moomoo has not…
Nebraska is meant to be a kind of Senate races the place prediction markets have all of it found out. It’s a deep pink state, with an institution Republican incumbent senator and nominal Democratic opponents. It must be a blowout win for the GOP. That is strictly what prediction markets are suggesting heading into the state’s…
Kalshi posted its highest single-week notional quantity on report through the week ending May 4, tallying $4.13 billion, up 8.5% from $3.81 billion the prior week. Polymarket fell 6.2% WoW to $1.60 billion, its lightest week since late March. Kalshi now holds 72.1% of mixed notional quantity between the 2 platforms, up from 69.0% the…
Sean Strickland beat Khamzat Chimaev by break up choice Saturday evening in Newark to reclaim the UFC middleweight title. On Kalshi, the battle drew $51.8 million in contract quantity and $19.0 million in precise money exchanged throughout greater than 280,000 trades. Most of the trades backed Chimaev, together with the largest particular person contracts too….
Prediction markets are displaying North Carolina might be a main spot for Democrats to choose up a key Senate seat within the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump carried the Tar Heel State comfortably in 2024, Republicans have a registration edge, and sitting Republican Sen. Thom Tillis survived a brutal 2020 cycle by the pores and…
The Ohio governor race is formally set between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton, and prediction markets present the competition as primarily a toss-up with a slight Democratic lean. Republicans have a stronghold on statewide workplaces in Ohio, and Democrats haven’t held the governor’s mansion in 20 years. Still, prediction markets seem to love Acton’s probabilities towards Ramaswamy, regardless…