Kalshi Notches Record $3.5B Volume in Masters Week as Polymarket Trump Markets Double

The week of April 6–11 was the strongest but for prediction markets, pushed by The Masters and a mixture of US election races and geopolitical occasions. Kalshi posted an all-time greatest $3.54B in notional quantity (+21.8% week-over-week), whereas Polymarket surged to $2.48B (+25.5% WoW). The two business leaders mixed for $6.02B for the week, in line with DeFi Rate’s prediction markets data tracking, simply edging out its earlier all-time high mixed $5.94B March 16 week throughout peak March Madness motion. Together with different tracked platforms, the business crossed $6.5B in mixed notional quantity, additionally a brand new general high.

Three storylines drove the week. The Masters Tournament was the headlining sports activities occasion, with Rory McIlroy delivering a historic back-to-back win at Augusta that got here with market-driving ups and downs. Polymarket’s Trump and Politics classes exploded, seeing +141% and +58.7% WoW lifts respectively, fueled by US–Iran battle markets and continued 2028 presidential election positioning. And late Friday, the California governor’s race was upended when experiences of sexual misconduct allegations in opposition to Eric Swalwell surfaced, sending the earlier frontrunner’s odds from the mid-30s to 1% in a matter of minutes. By Sunday evening, he had dropped out of the race, and merchants have already moved on to a brand new market on when he’ll depart his House seat.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket face to face replace

Just a few dynamics stand out throughout the six-week window on Kalshi vs. Polymarket. Note, per traditional, Polymarket world serves a vastly totally different viewers as it’s not legally accessible to US clients. Kalshi’s notional quantity lead reached a six-week high of $1.06B this week, up from $932M the prior week and from a low of $362M at first of March. Kalshi’s sports-heavy combine persistently carried out effectively throughout March Madness and is discovering sustained quantity drivers, with the Masters steering the ship this week.

The transaction divergence is among the extra structurally attention-grabbing tendencies. Polymarket’s transaction depend has been declining since its March 16 peak of 27.4M, whereas Kalshi’s rose this week to 22.2M. The two platforms at the moment are practically matched on uncooked transaction depend (22.4M vs. 22.2M) regardless of Kalshi’s $1B+ quantity lead, which means Kalshi’s common commerce measurement (~$160) is sort of 45% bigger than Polymarket’s (~$111). The divergence displays platform combine: Kalshi’s Sports customers make bigger particular person bets, whereas Polymarket’s political and crypto market merchants, although putting bigger bets than they used to, are nonetheless conducting extra frequent smaller trades.

Kalshi units new document as Masters drives sports activities to 85.8% of quantity

Kalshi’s quantity rebounded sharply from the post-Final Four cooldown, reaching $3.54B, its strongest week because the peak of March Madness. Kalshi’s Masters Tournament Champion market was the platform’s prime marketplace for the week. The most important Masters champion market alone attracted $460.3M in notional buying and selling quantity, not together with many different in style Masters markets like particular spherical winners. Sports and Exotics mixed hit $3.04B, or 85.8% of complete quantity.

The transaction story can be attention-grabbing. Kalshi’s +10.2% transaction development lagged its +21.8% quantity achieve, which means common commerce measurement grew ~10% to ~$160 per transaction. High-conviction Masters bets and larger-ticket crypto and political positions each contributed to the ticket-size growth.

Politics (together with Elections) dipped 19.6% WoW to $46.9M, regardless of the California Governor race and different election markets starting to construct steam. The CA governor winner market alone is now over $21.6M in notional quantity on Kalshi, and is drawing extra curiosity with Swalwell now out of the race. The politics dip was extra a mirrored image of the earlier week’s complete being inflated by Trump Cabinet shakeup markets in the wake of US Attorney General Pam Bondi’s firing.

*Other consists of: Unknown ($83.0M), Mentions ($21.1M), Science & Technology ($1.6M), Social ($791K), Companies ($726K), World ($387K)

Polymarket Trump class doubles as charges hit $7.73M

Polymarket’s week was headlined by a structural shift in what’s driving quantity. The platform posted $2.48B in notional (+25.5% WoW), however the transaction depend was primarily flat (-1.5%). That means common commerce measurement grew 27.5% to $110.77, which could possibly be a sign that bigger, extra refined capital is flowing into Polymarket’s political and macro markets.

On the payment entrance, Polymarket generated $7.73M for the week, up from $2.23M the week of March 23, earlier than its March 30 fee overhaul. Polymarket held 92.9% of all on-chain prediction market payment income final week, with the overall tracked on-chain market producing $8.32M for the week.

The Trump class led the WoW quantity cost, greater than doubling (+141% WoW) to $488.3M, now Polymarket’s second-largest single class at 19.7% of complete quantity, behind solely Sports. Combined with the broader Politics class ($354.2M, +7.9% WoW), the Trump + Politics advanced hit $842.5M, or 34.0% of all Polymarket quantity for the week. Markets driving latest exercise embody US–Iran battle markets, 2028 US presidential election markets, the April Fed price determination, World Cup winner, and F1 Drivers’ Championship. Polymarket’s most important Masters winner contract had $126M in quantity. The breadth of the important thing drivers spanning geopolitics, long-horizon elections, macro coverage, and world sports activities alerts that Polymarket is more and more getting used as a macro positioning instrument throughout classes.

Sports crossed $1.04B for the week (+25.3% WoW), its strongest efficiency exterior of NCAA match weeks, powered by $108M+ throughout all Masters markets on the platform. Crypto was the one class in the purple, dipping 5.9% to $474.6M. Polymarket’s elevated crypto payment price (as much as 1.80% peak efficient price vs. 0.75% for sports activities) could also be moderating high-frequency speculative exercise in that class.

*Other consists of: Tech ($8.1M), Other ($3.1M), World ($81K)

Industry panorama: $6.5B week

The broader business crossed $6.5B in mixed notional quantity this week, in line with Dune’s overall industry tracking, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for 92.5% of the overall. Crypto.com, the clear No. 3, posted its new high $170.9M quantity throughout the week of April 6, a 7.7% enhance over its earlier ATH of $158.7M set throughout peak March Madness betting the week of March 16.

Crypto.com launched its sports-focused OG Predictions app simply forward of the Super Bowl and is gaining traction with the assistance of sustained sports activities buying and selling occasions. While the trade’s prediction market product continues to be dwarfed by the highest two, its institutional distribution and present person base make it a real long-term competitor to observe.

Opinion ($118M) and predict.enjoyable ($117M) are primarily tied for 4th/fifth place and roughly matched on notional, although their transaction profiles differ sharply. predict.enjoyable processed 97K transactions vs. Opinion’s 6.1K, suggesting Opinion’s customers are putting a lot bigger particular person bets. Limitless continues its gradual fade from its late-2025 peak, posting $60.8M this week.

Looking forward

Primary election markets are heating up, and the California Governor main June 3 will proceed to drive outsized quantity over the following a number of weeks. With Swalwell out, the sphere reshuffles round Steyer, Porter, Mahan, and others. Each main growth together with endorsements, polling, and debate performances will generate quantity spikes on each platforms. The $22M+ already traded on the 2 most important associated Kalshi markets is more likely to double earlier than the first closes.

Expect sports markets to proceed to dominate in the approaching weeks, particularly on Kalshi, with NHL and NBA playoffs gearing as much as begin, World Cup betting ramping up, MLB underway, and a number of other different non-major sports activities attracting sustained quantity.

April fed price determination markets are additionally energetic on each platforms, at the moment trending at 98% for no rate change. A maintain, lower or shock transfer would generate vital quantity surges on adjoining markets throughout financial system and Trump-related coverage markets. One of the key drivers of Polymarket’s Trump class surge this week are US-Iran battle markets. Geopolitical occasion markets have confirmed to tug large-dollar bets and entice media protection, which feeds additional quantity. This class stays energetic heading into a brand new week, and will assist push Polymarket into new all-time high territory together with Kalshi.

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